The Weather Outlook

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Maunder Minimum
20 December 2018 11:11:53

Just looking at some historic strat graphs, and am surprised to see that there was only a little warming before Feb '86, which remains one of the coldest and most easterly Febs (over here at least) on record:

 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

I think that an SSW is a route to cold, but clearly is not the only one - Trop forcings are just as important.

As for the 30 dayer mentioned by Brian above - one for the bin - it is unlikely to have modelled the possible effects of the looming SSW and would be going purely from the current Trop forcings extrapolated out.

New world order coming.
Rob K
20 December 2018 11:17:32

 

What are they?

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Colourful very high altitude clouds caused by refraction from ice crystals in the stratosphere. You need very low temperatures in the strat.

 

 

 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

nsrobins
20 December 2018 11:18:27

 

What are they?

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Very rare in the UK - form in lower Strat when temps fall below -78C. Very high, iridescent and often amazing colours just before sunrise or after sunset.

Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Rob K
20 December 2018 11:21:17

 

Very rare in the UK - form in lower Strat when temps fall below -78C. Very high, iridescent and often amazing colours just before sunrise or after sunset.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

I read -85C somewhere. Has to be cold anyway!

Looking at the strat forecast the 10hPa temperature will be below -85C over Scotland by Monday (that also shows the warming well underway, with temps above zero over Siberia).

 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Maunder Minimum
20 December 2018 11:25:24

 

I read -85C somewhere. Has to be cold anyway!

Looking at the strat forecast the 10hPa temperature will be below -85C over Scotland by Monday (that also shows the warming well underway, with temps above zero over Siberia).

 

 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Impressive Strat warming shown there and only 4 days away. It is going to happen and then we will see changes in the model output to reflect that. Whether it improves the weather in the UK is another matter - nothing guaranteed of course - we could end up on the wrong side of a block even so.

New world order coming.
nsrobins
20 December 2018 11:51:18
Some decent attempts at easterlies in the GEFS suite.
Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Rob K
20 December 2018 12:15:46

Some decent attempts at easterlies in the GEFS suite.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Yes a few cold stragglers starting to appear:

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Heavy Weather 2013
20 December 2018 12:16:43

Some decent attempts at easterlies in the GEFS suite.

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Agreed, the ensembles have that feel about them at the moment.

I still think next week is all to play for. I think something at short notice may crop up.

Mark

Beckton, E London

Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.

AJ*
  • AJ*
  • Advanced Member
20 December 2018 12:42:03

 

What are they? [Nacreous clouds]

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

Just to add to the replies already posted - pictures of them on my all-time favourite website:

https://www.atoptics.co.uk/highsky/nacr1.htm

I've seen noctilucent clouds before, but not nacreous clouds.  I'll be keeping my eyes open.

Angus; one of the Kent crew on TWO.

Tonbridge, 40m (131ft) asl

The Beast from the East
20 December 2018 13:04:12

would be a nice Xmas present from the gods to see some of these clouds. I don't recall ever seeing one before

Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

Saint Snow
20 December 2018 13:12:31

would be a nice Xmas present from the gods to see some of these clouds. I don't recall ever seeing one before

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

 

I've seen one, probably 3/4 years ago. Took a photo on my phone, but it didn't turn out very well. I'll have to dig it out sometime.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Rob K
20 December 2018 13:27:17

would be a nice Xmas present from the gods to see some of these clouds. I don't recall ever seeing one before

Originally Posted by: The Beast from the East 

I have seen them once, there was a well recorded display over northern England in 1996. I saw them from Sheffield. They made the front page of the local paper as I recall.

 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Chunky Pea
20 December 2018 13:43:09

 

I have seen them once, there was a well recorded display over northern England in 1996. I saw them from Sheffield. They made the front page of the local paper as I recall.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

There was a good sighting of them of them in I think Feb or March 2015 or 2016 over here, and I thought the UK too? 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

Gandalf The White
20 December 2018 13:49:45

 

Just to add to the replies already posted - pictures of them on my all-time favourite website:

https://www.atoptics.co.uk/highsky/nacr1.htm

I've seen noctilucent clouds before, but not nacreous clouds.  I'll be keeping my eyes open.

Originally Posted by: AJ* 

What a fabulous photograph.  Definitely worth looking out for those, with camera at the ready.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Maunder Minimum
20 December 2018 14:26:55

Adjective[edit]. nacreous (comparative more nacreous, superlative most nacreous). Of, or resembling nacre (mother of pearl)

 

New world order coming.
Rob K
20 December 2018 14:56:23

 

There was a good sighting of them of them in I think Feb or March 2015 or 2016 over here, and I thought the UK too? 

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 

Feb 2016?

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/640770/Penis-shape-nacreous-clouds-Whitby-Storm-Henry 

 

Not visible from the south, AFAIK. I certainly didn't see them.

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Essan
20 December 2018 15:27:41

 Feb 2016?

 https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/640770/Penis-shape-nacreous-clouds-Whitby-Storm-Henry 

 Not visible from the south, AFAIK. I certainly didn't see them.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 

Saw them here in Worcs on 2 or 3 occasions that week, though sadly didn't manage any decent photos.. 

Andy

Evesham, Worcs, Albion - 35m asl

Weather & Earth Science News 

Look in the doubt we've wallowed, look at the leaders we've followed, look at the lies we've swallowed, and I don't want to hear no more

picturesareme
20 December 2018 15:53:59

 

Feb 2016?

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/640770/Penis-shape-nacreous-clouds-Whitby-Storm-Henry 

 

Not visible from the south, AFAIK. I certainly didn't see them.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

 

I've seen them down here on south coast 

Saint Snow
20 December 2018 15:58:54

So... what will the 12z's bring us?

A tentative increase in the cold perturbations? Or a lukewarm custard pie in the face?

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Maunder Minimum
20 December 2018 16:01:16

So... what will the 12z's bring us?

A tentative increase in the cold perturbations? Or a lukewarm custard pie in the face?

 

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

ICON and UKMO have given us plates of warm piss for next week.

New world order coming.
Maunder Minimum
20 December 2018 16:13:38

All the models want to do at the moment is to build pressure in exactly the wrong place from the UK perspective.

Sickening for the Christmas week.

New world order coming.
fairweather
20 December 2018 16:16:27

 

Thanks, that is what I was uncertain about. The models seem to be showing that the 10hPa PV is likely to be smack over the UK come the beginning of January.

 

Incidentally Ian Fergusson was posting on Twitter yesterday about the possibility of nacreous clouds in the coming days as the strat temperature is unusually low over the UK (down to -85C).

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Is the SSW forecast absolute or relative? It's just that if it is that unusually low in the strat now isn't warming almost inevitable? Is it the absolute values that matter (i.e warmer than usual) or the rate of change i.e "the sudden"? Just wondering.

S.Essex, 42m ASL
Chunky Pea
20 December 2018 16:18:12

 

Feb 2016?

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/640770/Penis-shape-nacreous-clouds-Whitby-Storm-Henry 

 

Not visible from the south, AFAIK. I certainly didn't see them.

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yep, would have been around that time, though don't recall seeing that specific 'shape'. They were most visible in the morning. 

Took a couple of pics I remember but would have to root them out. 

Patrick,

East Galway, Ireland.

idj20
20 December 2018 16:38:09

All the models want to do at the moment is to build pressure in exactly the wrong place from the UK perspective.

Sickening for the Christmas week.

Originally Posted by: Maunder Minimum 



But travel disruptions are likely to be kept at a minimum at a time when most people will be buzzing around the UK visiting relatives and friends for Christmas - and at the same time probably a good time to take a step back from model watching for a few days and just enjoy the festive period like actual normal people.  But of course we would not be able to resist having a cheeky peek here and there. However, that said about next week, reduced visibility could be an issue as the air become calm and stagnant in time.

(And besides, I generally don't bother with Christmas as it'll just be me and my elderly mother keeping it cheap and simple and quietly relaxing for the most part).

Home location: Folkestone Harbour.
ballamar
20 December 2018 16:38:55

GFS bit more of a better shape in the high and potential to get into a more favourable position to advect cold to UK

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_240_1.png

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