Yes and only a  fool would predict ukmo t144 outcome

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

January will IMO buck the trend of recent January's and cone out with a below average, possibly well below average CET. I expect it will be quite dry but all areas will see at least some snow.
Make the most of this mild December because I foresee a severe January ahead.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

The Energy transfer SE has been the preferred / forecast option all week - its just the models have continued with their zonal bias -

Now finally under the magical 144 mark we are seeing the jet bend away from the UK from the scandi high - A classic winter influence-

ECM brings snow to many as does the UKMO however at this early stage & with ~ 540 thicknesses then its all a bit marginal but with scope for improvements- Ideally in the form of a bit more 'continental feed' underneath... SE is much much better than SSE in this scenario...

S

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

Screen shot this ^^^^ 

Come mid January when we're still enduring Atlantic system after system, rivers are beginning to burst, and the best cold has been a few frosty night's inbetween, I bet you'll be bragging about how you had predicted this all weeks or months earlier 🤣😋

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 

Have to say I'm shocked at some of the posts on the other side about a possible snow event towards the end of next week. Two golden rules for this to  happen (away from the highest ground ) -

• cold air has to be in place first before the PPN arrives
• if it isn't then colder air has to be pushing back against the PPN to turn it to snow

Whatever the wind direction, none of the models show the above happening.

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Have to say I'm shocked at some of the posts on the other side about a possible snow event towards the end of next week. Two golden rules for this to  happen (away from the highest ground ) -

• cold air has to be in place first before the PPN arrives
• if it isn't then colder air has to be pushing back against the PPN to turn it to snow

Whatever the wind direction, none of the models show the above happening.

 You’ve been in the game long enough to know the big 3 +144 charts are as enticing as they come for the UK. Atlantic is always odds on but at +6 days any adjustment west would bring a snow event. ECM also holds the block to the NE as the Atlantic fizzles....

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

The chart below shows the rainfall pattern for the next 10 days across the UK, and shows how wet it is generally expected to be.

However, you will probably have noticed in that map that the driest area appears to in SE Scotland once again.

One thing which I have kept on mentioning in both the Current Conditions thread and the Precipitation Watch Thread is the manner in we are just not getting as much rain here in this part of the world just now as what the rest of the UK appears to be getting according to what everyone else is reporting on those threads, even though we are getting more rain than what we have been getting for a while. The above chart shows clearly, how this is likely to be the case for the next 10 days as well, resulting in that rainfall gap between here and the rest of the UK getting even bigger over that time.

Yet we in this part of the world have one of the biggest rainfall deficits in the UK to have built up over the course of the year. Last month was wetter than average here, though not by much and whilst the rest of the UK is running much wetter than average just now, our rainfall totals during this month so far are running at no more than average. This means that whilst the rainfall deficit may well be getting made up in the rest of the UK, that just isn't happening here in SE Scotland, and doesn't look like happening during the next 10 days either, going by the above chart.

I therefore find it weird that mother nature appears to be picking on this area of the UK in particular, for not giving us as much rainfall as the rest of the UK although I'm sure than anyone who is more knowledgeable than me, will be able to give a very good reason for why this is the case.

Originally Posted by: johncs2016