Running late tonight want to see those at 150

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=24

 

 

 

indeed - The 18z has again moved to the Euro solution ( which ive highlighted on the other side ) 

Fun times ahead....

FV3 much sharper at 96 as well than the 12z
Just waiting for the energy to close a shallow low to the SW of the UK

S

A progressive GFS 18Z  with heights building over Iberia towards day 10.

 

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Rather more want the short-wave 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=96

 

Rather more want the short-wave 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=96

 

It's of no consequence - the cold enough air never reaches the UK.

 

 

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its the trend I want Ian if it closes we are in the money the cold will come, looks further west on the P also

 

It's of no consequence - the cold enough air never reaches the UK.

 

 

A progressive GFS 18Z  with heights building over Iberia towards day 10.

 

So, pretty much the same pressure pattern that we have right now and not much different to Day 6 when the trough slides away SE.

 

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I think the earliest effects for the UK from the SSW will start early January Tally.

 

People stress my analysis's are poor but i see LP over the pole /Arctic on the 12z chart!?

But yes could be a sign of things to come and usually before a SSW we tend to get an increase in milder zonal weather anyway!? I have realised this as it's usually the case. - Here's to a snowy and wintry start to 2019 then??

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UKMO

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1021&ech=72&archive=0 

Let it snow....

The GEFS during the last week or so has provided a good example of how even ensemble models can't be relied on at relatively short range in the UK. That blip of below average 850s on the chart below between 9/12 and 11/12 was until a few days a cold/ish period lasting for about one week. Quite a few runs kept the chill in place for longer than that. Of course the implication is the reverse could also happen in the future. It's a good lesson for anyone new who may be reading this thread!  

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Some interesting charts on offer for breakfast this morning. From my standpoint, some cleaner, dryer weather as we head into the festive period would be welcome.

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That is indeed true Brian for some parts which could have been impacted by a colder continental flow but it is certainly not the case in others. The blip is actually colder here and much more clearly defined and the ensemble mean had not changed notably one way or the other.

I think it does show that:
(1) the output is not infallible and, although the more data you look at the better a picture you get, it can all still change,
(2) things are finely balanced a few days out and a small change of a few hundred miles will have large repercussions one way or the other.

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That is indeed true Brian for some parts which could have been impacted by a colder continental flow but it is certainly not the case in others. The blip is actually colder here and much more clearly defined and the ensemble mean had not changed notably one way or the other.

I think it does show that:
(1) the output is not infallible and, although the more data you look at the better a picture you get, it can all still change,
(2) things are finely balanced a few days out and a small change of a few hundred miles will have large repercussions one way or the other.

certainly not boring and as you say finely balanced, I think a few more twists and what happens at the end of the week could define the next couple!

hope it’s colder option

I’d say if anything the models have taken a step forward in bringing wintry Synoptics into play as we approach Xmas plenty of marginal cold uppers in the mix of undercutting lows I’d say.

Morning all, plenty of interest again this morning and as others have highlighted above- slight changes over a couple of hundred miles or so will make all the differences in the weather we experience. And let’s be honest, we can’t expect models to be so precise at such time periods.

UKMO

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1021&ech=72&archive=0

Let it snow....

 

Bizarre 'analysis' !

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Bizarre 'analysis' !

Says the purveyor of bizarre analysis.

ROFL

Anyway, run the sequence of charts: it shows exactly what I said last night in response to your erroneous comment about weather systems charging in.

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Says the purveyor of bizarre analysis.

ROFL

Anyway, run the sequence of charts: it shows exactly what I said last night in response to your erroneous comment about weather systems charging in.

Can someone point me in the direction of what Steve is talking about then from that UKMO chart ? Again the below -

 

• Cold air not in place when the systems arrive.


• flow turns West of South when system arrives - needs to be East of South.

Both or 1 of those parameters need to be in place for at least a temporary snow event (away from the highest ground) and they are not on any of the NWP I've seen this morning.

 

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Bizarre 'analysis' !

No not really.

Anyway I’m still waiting for your comment on the ECM showing snow when you said none of the models were. Do you now recognise you were wrong?

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No not really.

Anyway I’m still waiting for your comment on the ECM showing snow when you said none of the models were. Do you now recognise you were wrong?

I don't know why it is showing snow when  the parameters are not there from it's own data - possibly for the highest ground ? Perhaps someone could explain. Darren ?

 

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