Was Steve talking about the (06z) GFS op output? I thought he was referring to the UKMO and ECM? 

Its called selective filtering...

Why anyone would continually follow the GFS in this scenario as opposed to the UKMET or ECM which both show snow events is beyond me-

Time & time over the GFS gets it wrong...

S

ICON 6z also shows the cold air failing to get into the east. Personally I wouldn't totally discount the possibility of a snow event away from northern high ground next Thursday but think you'd need to be barking to put your last £ on it happening.

So many pizza slices here in the UK so far this winter - we need a break from pizza it's not healthy!

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So far this winter...

All 1 week of it?

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For WIW the computer generated Met Office forecast for here on Thursday is showing a period of snow so there is a least one model that thinks the parameters are the right side of marginal. The caveat to that is that I'm nearly a 1000ft up.

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Whilst there is nothing noteworthy of any cold coming - keep an eye out over the Stratosphere from the Siberian Side:

We eventually push the oranges and red's into the Arctic region and onto the n. Pole now. This has been quite consistent. It's a long way off and of course can change but it does fit into a potential cold blocked start to January if this comes off and the HP block sets up right over Scandinavia  2-3 weeks down the line. During the last major SSW it was 15 days until we saw beast from the east. The warming was around 9th - 12th Feb 2018 and the easterly hit us from 25th Feb 2018. 

So if this comes off between 19th and 21st December then we are looking at a much colder or fingers crossed). - Bitterly cold 1st/2nd week of January 2019. Fingers crossed but all depends on the blocking and where the HP sits.

This major SSW is forming from the same side of the Arctic and into the N. Pole similar to the warming last time - so many the block will be in same position or does it depend. Another question...i wanted to ask?

Has there ever been a case where a SSW has been so great that it's got above -5c in stratosphere? The temperatures look like they are off the scale here on this model output? Have we ever seen 0c or +5c before in strat over Arctic? and is it the case that the more significant the SSW/ MORE WARMER it is the bigger and more extensive the blocking? anyone?

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  - flooding becoming an issue if this run comes off, a really dreadful pattern and as shown on the ECM, signs of a West based NAO with pressure rising over Europe by day 10.

 

Even the lowly NAVGEM 06z & JMA (84 06z ) are now falling towards the Euros with a closed off shallow low sliding SE forcing more CAA west out of the continent-

Its just the useless ( in this scenario ) GFS that cannot work it out-

As mentioned on NW - tomorrow 12z or Monday 00z GFS may finally have cottoned on...

Well Steve we’ll know by Weds at the latest if a transient snow event is on not.
Tally - you can’t have a SSW until after the event whatever is forecast.

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Well Steve we’ll know by Weds at the latest if a transient snow event is on not.
Tally - you can’t have a SSW until after the event whatever is forecast.

Sorry what event?

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Sorry what event?

The one that causes the SSW (which is as yet not shown in the output)

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Whilst there is nothing noteworthy of any cold coming - keep an eye out over the Stratosphere from the Siberian Side:

We eventually push the oranges and red's into the Arctic region and onto the n. Pole now. This has been quite consistent. It's a long way off and of course can change but it does fit into a potential cold blocked start to January if this comes off and the HP block sets up right over Scandinavia  2-3 weeks down the line. During the last major SSW it was 15 days until we saw beast from the east. The warming was around 9th - 12th Feb 2018 and the easterly hit us from 25th Feb 2018. 

So if this comes off between 19th and 21st December then we are looking at a much colder or fingers crossed). - Bitterly cold 1st/2nd week of January 2019. Fingers crossed but all depends on the blocking and where the HP sits.

This major SSW is forming from the same side of the Arctic and into the N. Pole similar to the warming last time - so many the block will be in same position or does it depend. Another question...i wanted to ask?

Has there ever been a case where a SSW has been so great that it's got above -5c in stratosphere? The temperatures look like they are off the scale here on this model output? Have we ever seen 0c or +5c before in strat over Arctic? and is it the case that the more significant the SSW/ MORE WARMER it is the bigger and more extensive the blocking? anyone?

I'm pretty sure I've seen the same charts above show above zero temperatures in the past. I believe I saw this several years ago. Maybe someone on here will be a little more precise. ( I saw this in FI not in actual time)

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12Z ICON manages another adjustment West with the Scandy heights which results in a 150mile jog west for the boundary line at 105hrs
Not saying it will result in anything other than the inevitable Atlantic intrusion by Thursday but it’s still noteworthy.

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Very mild and wet next Saturday morning on the GFS -

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.gif

 

 

 

Blink and you miss it though 

 

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GFS12z disrupts things more next week although the Atlantic still gets in eventually. The CMC 12z run is also interesting and suggests a period of snow late next week as the Atlantic returns. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gem.aspx?run=12&charthour=156&chartname=ukpreciptyperatec&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type%20rate

PS: I'll be having a pint of Festive Foxtrot tonight, so won't be posting but will be browsing. It means that if I see OT posts I am likely to get an itchy finger and vaporise the account of the poster. As you know by now, once you're account is gone, it is gone! So let's see if we can do better than last night's rubbish. The season of goodwill isn't here just yet. 

 

 

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By day 10 the 12z GFS op run is totally different to the 06z op which just highlights the uncertainty of the last few days in the week to ten day range. I would hope for a bit more consistency from the ECM later however we haven’t really got that from the UKMO.

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Time & time over the GFS gets it wrong...

S

No, it doesn't.

Wasn't it the GFS which first showed a greater Atlantic influence? And, if I remember correctly, it was the GFS which first picked up on the recent easterly spell.

I don't understand all this hating on the GFS when it doesn't show what we want.

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Here it comes: - Look what's happening over Siberia!

Jump of some 40c in the stratosphere in space of 3 days.

Can't find chart for 30hpa but this is @ 10hpa: - based on 12z run.

Ties in well with strength of zonal westerlies @ 60'N. - Definite weakening end of December into January! 

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Great ECM tonight at 96
-6c into the SE corner- best of the bunch...

GFS12z disrupts things more next week although the Atlantic still gets in eventually. The CMC 12z run is also interesting and suggests a period of snow late next week as the Atlantic returns. 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gem.aspx?run=12&charthour=156&chartname=ukpreciptyperatec&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type%20rate

PS: I'll be having a pint of Festive Foxtrot tonight, so won't be posting but will be browsing. It means that if I see OT posts I am likely to get an itchy finger and vaporise the account of the poster. As you know by now, once you're account is gone, it is gone! So let's see if we can do better than last night's rubbish. The season of goodwill isn't here just yet. 

 

 

Looking like Steve’s call earlier in the week for next Thursday could be right. 😎

Gotta love weather forums (or not!) this time of yr - hanging by a thread on each run hoping the disrupting trough just about allows the -5C 850mb into E England. Haha. Long story short, forget next wk, it's done with, look ahead to Christmas & the final quarter of Dec onwards👍🏻

— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) December 8, 2018

Gotta love weather forums (or not!) this time of yr - hanging by a thread on each run hoping the disrupting trough just about allows the -5C 850mb into E England. Haha. Long story short, forget next wk, it's done with, look ahead to Christmas & the final quarter of Dec onwards👍🏻

— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) December 8, 2018

Hmmm, I wonder if Matt is dropping some hints?

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