Needless to say that things could change and then change again. However, the main weather risk at the moment is the growing possibility of flooding.

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Needless to say that things could change and then change again. However, the main weather risk at the moment is the growing possibility of flooding.

Well we have a pretty dry three or four days to come, and beyond that that chart doesn't look particularly wet for this time of year. So at least for the SE, I don't think there's too much to worry about. It could be a different picture further north and west, of course.

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Well we have a pretty dry three or four days to come, and beyond that that chart doesn't look particularly wet for this time of year. So at least for the SE, I don't think there's too much to worry about. It could be a different picture further north and west, of course.

Here are the charts for rainfall and anomaly over the next week and beyond (based on the GFS 00z op run).

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This morning's ECM (which wasn't the coldest run of the pack, although it came close) still won't entirely give up on the snow risk down here - this is the London 0z ECM suite:

Full charts available as ever on weather.us:

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/snow

(I still don't understand why nobody else seems to use it!)

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The push from the west will occur - it’s just a matter of when and how quickly as the output tries to resolve the block’s dissolution v the Atlantic attack.
Yes snow possible on one or more of the attempts but this is still open to interpretation.
It’s one thing being a partisan coldie, but when that blinkers you to any other scenario being modelled it becomes a bit annoying.
In the extended (up to Xmas) and the forecast PV displacement from a warming on the Siberian side coupled with synchronous wave 1/2 activity continues to excite the long-rangers.

Agree, all we’re seeing are the models playing around with timescales on an a Atlantic breakthrough, it will come but how far East  is unknown. I still think we need to be looking to our NW for something more sustained around Xmas and not East. 

Agree, all we’re seeing are the models playing around with timescales on an a Atlantic breakthrough, it will come but how far East  is unknown. I still think we need to be looking to our NW for something more sustained around Xmas and not East. 

That looks odds on IMO , we need to put the East to bed for a bit 

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That looks odds on IMO , we need to put the East to bed for a bit 

 

Atlantic is definitely coming through but its whether we can get any snow when it does we have a small window Thursday  to Saturday looks unlikely  but we still have a chance. After that its looks like a long wait until anything significantly cold . Probably  after Christmas. We need the SSW to be kind as well.

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Nothing of note at all over the States either 

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LP after LP being thrown across the Atlantic , need to conjure an HP up from somewhere , patience is the word it seems . 

 

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Atlantic is definitely coming through but its whether we can get any snow when it does we have a small window Thursday  to Saturday looks unlikely  but we still have a chance.

FWIW, there's been a marked switch back to a colder outlook down here at least from both MOGREPS and EPS. Both of them have ensemble mean highs of just 4C across Kent on Thursday, with 4 or 5C for Friday - both of which are in a strong east or ESE'ly wind. It'll feel perishing, even if nothing else.

(It's also a good reminder that just a day or two of easterlies at this time of year can feed in some low-level cold.)

Beyond that, nothing much of excitement on offer from a winter fan's point of view. There are hints - just the odd hints - via GEFS of some warm advection attempts west of Greenland in the 10 day+ timeframe but at the moment they're not really worth paying much attention to.

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LP after LP being thrown across the Atlantic , need to conjure an HP up from somewhere , patience is the word it seems . 

 

Well, if this was the middle of summer just now, we would certainly be looking to get some high pressure from somewhere. At this time of the year though, it's not just about looking for high pressure as per say, because that could easily end with the high pressure in the wrong place such as to the south of here which would then result in that bringing in really mild air from the Azores.

This means that the high pressure needs to be in the right place, preferably to the north of here where it can then bring in a properly cold easterly wind from Siberia and hopefully, not the sort of half-hearted easterly which we got in November that wasn't all that cold, and which delivered nothing more than a lot of gloom which was then enough to prevent that month from being sunnier than average overall here.

 

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That looks odds on IMO , we need to put the East to bed for a bit 

Spot on Marcus. Was never likely to bring much of any significance despite some people pinning all their hopes on it.

Eyes on the *possible* SSW now. That said, the warming is only being shown out in FI, which surely is about as likely as any other FI chart.

 

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Well, if this was the middle of summer just now, we would certainly be looking to get some high pressure from somewhere. At this time of the year though, it's not just about looking for high pressure as per say, because that could easily end with the high pressure in the wrong place such as to the south of here which would then result in that bringing in really mild air from the Azores.

This means that the high pressure needs to be in the right place, preferably to the north of here where it can then bring in a properly cold easterly wind from Siberia and hopefully, not the sort of half-hearted easterly which we got in November that wasn't all that cold, and which delivered nothing more than a lot of gloom which was then enough to prevent that month from being sunnier than average overall here.

 

Id have thought that was a given 

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f half-hearted easterly which we got in November that wasn't all that cold,

Ah yes, that easterly that brought sleet here and, further inland (near Ashford) some snow:

(That's Gizmo, one of the Snowdogs from the recent art trail held in Ashford).

I'm not expecting a repeat this time, but two easterly shots in the space of 3 weeks is interesting to me, as it suggests a bit of a repeating pattern. If (big if) we get another go, that'd put it at the end of the year / start of next - we'll see soon enough!

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All for fun of course but get the HP to balloon up over Greenland and bingo 

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All for fun of course but get the HP to balloon up over Greenland and bingo 

The jet pattern from the same time looks entertainingly unorganised too.

Looking at the 6z Op run generally whilst it's unsettled for us it's not a typical full on zonal onslaught in that the LP just sticks around the UK and gradually fills. There's not a lot of energy that makes it past the UK bar one little LP that merges with another trough over Scandi.

Suggests that there's a pretty easy route to cold there - disorganised and meandering jet will mean blocking setting up somewhere, just need to get lucky and for it to end up favouring cold for the UK.

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Ah yes, that easterly that brought sleet here and, further inland (near Ashford) some snow:

(That's Gizmo, one of the Snowdogs from the recent art trail held in Ashford).

I'm not expecting a repeat this time, but two easterly shots in the space of 3 weeks is interesting to me, as it suggests a bit of a repeating pattern. If (big if) we get another go, that'd put it at the end of the year / start of next - we'll see soon enough!

However, I'm not suggesting that everywhere wasn't all that cold under that November easterly and instead, am only going by what my experience of that was like here in Edinburgh at that time. In my books, a cold easterly is one which results in a lot of snow lying in the higher parts of the south of Edinburgh and in other parts near here which are further inland, or on higher ground. For that definition to be satisfied, we don't necessarily need to be having any lying snow here in the north of Edinburgh or in any other coastal areas in this region.

A really cold easterly on the other hand is defined in my book, as one where that really deep snow also extends to coastal areas as well, such as here in the north of Edinburgh as was the case back in February/March. In November though, neither of those criteria was satisfied and what we got instead was just plenty of rain and night-time temperatures of around 8°C here on the east coast itself, which is actually no different what we have been getting under that much "milder" zonal pattern of weather which we have been under more recently.

That in my books, can't exactly be described as all that cold and yet, it was technically, a cold period since the temperatures during that period were below average overall. For that reason, I'm not going to argue with anyone who says that it was cold then. However, I can remember Gavin P. saying in his videos at the time, that this particular air mass wasn't as cold as what it could be at that time of year because the continental source where the air was coming from then hadn't yet had a chance to properly cool down after the hot summer which we had this year. I can also remember that night-time temperatures in general at that time weren't exactly all that exciting from a cold perspective and in any case, that period wasn't cold enough in the end to prevent that month from still be considerably warmer than average overall.

It is therefore on that basis as well, that I referred to that period as not being all that cold.

 

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That looks odds on IMO , we need to put the East to bed for a bit 

A coffin would be preferable. Most maxima we've had over the past week have been colder than the minima we saw under that tripe in November.

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ICON further west again 

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Just a shame the block isn't stronger 

UK @ 120

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