Here it comes: - Look what's happening over Siberia!

Jump of some 40c in the stratosphere in space of 3 days.

<big snip>

Remember that even the earliest of the charts that you've posted is for 13 days hence. Are forecasts for the stratosphere at that range any more to be relied on than the forecast charts for lower levels that we obsess over? Though the stratosphere affects developments at lower levels, surely the converse must also be true, making forecasting changes in the stratosphere difficult. 

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No, it doesn't.

Wasn't it the GFS which first showed a greater Atlantic influence? And, if I remember correctly, it was the GFS which first picked up on the recent easterly spell.

I don't understand all this hating on the GFS when it doesn't show what we want.

When you decide to quote just part of a post out of context I think it devalues your criticism.  Steve was referring to the modelling of the ingress of milder air into the country next week.  It is fair to say that most of the models can struggle with something finely balanced, particularly when they're global models and we're all focusing on a couple of hundred miles - which is obviously insignificant in global terms.

GFS has been pulling back from its original forecast of the jetstream taking control over the British Isles.  I think it is inevitable but the timing is still up in the air. 

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Anyhow, when it comes to the Strat, there is still something stirring around 16/17 Dec:

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Gotta love weather forums (or not!) this time of yr - hanging by a thread on each run hoping the disrupting trough just about allows the -5C 850mb into E England. Haha. Long story short, forget next wk, it's done with, look ahead to Christmas & the final quarter of Dec onwards👍🏻

— Matt Hugo (@MattHugo81) December 8, 2018

Certainly agree with his assessment of next week, let's hope for the pattern flip that he is alluding to there.

 

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Good consistency re. the snow risk once again on the ECM. A subtle shift in that direction on the GFS and a snowy scenario on the GEM. Still a fascinating a finely balanced situation and certainly worth watching as nothing is settled for next week.

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Good consistency re. the snow risk once again on the ECM. A subtle shift in that direction on the GFS and a snowy scenario on the GEM. Still a fascinating a finely balanced situation and certainly worth watching as nothing is settled for next week.

Agreed Doc - sometimes we need to look at trends rather than runs in isolation. The "proper" professionals are calling a battleground with the mild air probably winning out for the south at least next week, but uncertainty rules given the timescale. Anyone calling one way or the other needs to chill the beans and watch the evolution sans antagonisme

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12Z ICON manages another adjustment West with the Scandy heights which results in a 150mile jog west for the boundary line at 105hrs
Not saying it will result in anything other than the inevitable Atlantic intrusion by Thursday but it’s still noteworthy.

Bugger all interesting for our part of the isles though going on met raw 7 days...

 

 

 

I must admit the chance of an hour or twos wet snow doesn’t really rock my boat, all eyes on developments later in the month although I’d love a crisp frosty Xmas if we can’t get a white one but neither look the form horse at the moment.

 

Certainly agree with his assessment of next week, let's hope for the pattern flip that he is alluding to there.

 

Can’t say I agree, or that I’ve ever had a huge amount of admiration for Hugo either.  

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Whatever happens this week I can be 99.9% sure it's going to rain down here in the Florida of the British Isles. However were I still in Bakewell I would be watching developments very closely......saying that I still am!🙄

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Can’t say I agree, or that I’ve ever had a huge amount of admiration for Hugo either.  

He used to be a regular poster here before he went off to do his degree in meteorology.  He knows his stuff well enough.

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ECM 12z ensemble for London

 

Two markedly different clusters for much of next week, with the Op taking the less cold route initially before taking the colder route until after next weekend: GFS 12z Op headed towards cold but there’s a lot of spaghetti there. 

So, still finely balanced in the next few days and anyone’s guess beyond that.

 

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So, still finely balanced in the next few days and anyone’s guess beyond that.

 

Daily forecasts chopping and changing over the next few days as more or less weight given to LP to the west and HP to the east, varying with each run.

Christmas Day now appearing in the outer reaches of FI and a promising northerly appears with snow showers for the east coast and impressive double-digit snow row figures for Inverness. Just the sort of set-up which has disappointed before, but it might just be worth a punt on a White Christmas for east coast locations.

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ECM now has the bulk of England down to -7c at day 6...

Just saying....

Surprisingly good ECM this morning cold air much further west. -6c 850s at 96h, -7c at 120h and even some -8c at 144h. Remarkable,  Models really are struggling with this one. Ecm suggests snow very possible late next week.

 

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Morning all, some interest in the ECM take on things- could be a spell of snow later on in the week if it were to verify.

The push from the west will occur - it’s just a matter of when and how quickly as the output tries to resolve the block’s dissolution v the Atlantic attack.
Yes snow possible on one or more of the attempts but this is still open to interpretation.
It’s one thing being a partisan coldie, but when that blinkers you to any other scenario being modelled it becomes a bit annoying.
In the extended (up to Xmas) and the forecast PV displacement from a warming on the Siberian side coupled with synchronous wave 1/2 activity continues to excite the long-rangers.

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ECM went off the scale this morning.

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GFSP 00z still suggesting some transient sleet or snow.

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I’m not sure if things are any clearer now re. the details later in the coming week given this morning’s output. Yet more SEly muck seems very likely, whether some get snow from it is still to be seen but the risk is still there.

Beyond that things looks very messy and generallly unsettled on this morning’s charts.

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