The jet pattern from the same time looks entertainingly unorganised too.

Looking at the 6z Op run generally whilst it's unsettled for us it's not a typical full on zonal onslaught in that the LP just sticks around the UK and gradually fills. There's not a lot of energy that makes it past the UK bar one little LP that merges with another trough over Scandi.

Suggests that there's a pretty easy route to cold there - disorganised and meandering jet will mean blocking setting up somewhere, just need to get lucky and for it to end up favouring cold for the UK.

However, I'm not suggesting that everywhere wasn't all that cold under that November easterly and instead, am only going by what my experience of that was like here in Edinburgh at that time. In my books, a cold easterly is one which results in a lot of snow lying in the higher parts of the south of Edinburgh and in other parts near here which are further inland, or on higher ground. For that definition to be satisfied, we don't necessarily need to be having any lying snow here in the north of Edinburgh or in any other coastal areas in this region.

A really cold easterly on the other hand is defined in my book, as one where that really deep snow also extends to coastal areas as well, such as here in the north of Edinburgh as was the case back in February/March. In November though, neither of those criteria was satisfied and what we got instead was just plenty of rain and night-time temperatures of around 8°C here on the east coast itself, which is actually no different what we have been getting under that much "milder" zonal pattern of weather which we have been under more recently.

That in my books, can't exactly be described as all that cold and yet, it was technically, a cold period since the temperatures during that period were below average overall. For that reason, I'm not going to argue with anyone who says that it was cold then. However, I can remember Gavin P. saying in his videos at the time, that this particular air mass wasn't as cold as what it could be at that time of year because the continental source where the air was coming from then hadn't yet had a chance to properly cool down after the hot summer which we had this year. I can also remember that night-time temperatures in general at that time weren't exactly all that exciting from a cold perspective and in any case, that period wasn't cold enough in the end to prevent that month from still be considerably warmer than average overall.

It is therefore on that basis as well, that I referred to that period as not being all that cold.

A coffin would be preferable. Most maxima we've had over the past week have been colder than the minima we saw under that tripe in November.

ICON further west again 

Just a shame the block isn't stronger 

UK @ 120

Wow, upgrade from UKMO, thu/fri looking very interesting for some 

Not sure what is going on here ! We can assume that the UKMO has 'thrown one in' untl we see other output -

https://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2018120912/UW96-21.GIF

Uh-huh, I understand that where you were that easterly in late November wasn't special. Down here it was - snow from the east is unusual at any time, but that was the earliest it's happened since November 1993.

Nice to see the MetO is serving up some sub-528 dam air down here for a time late next week, from the east. That's colder than the 0z run and that had 4C as a maximum here on Thursday (the long-term mean would be 9C or so). I'll be interested to see what MOGREPS makes of it later.

GFS further west also 

Not really, only tiny differences between the output so far and the 06z - GFS has been very consistent for some days.

-4 isotherm further west than 06z, so it is further west 

Why because the Atlantic hasn't bombed through

Next Saturday shows the Atlantic held off 

Actually ties in with what Darren was saying earlier 

Well, well the UKMO run has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons , Atlantic doesn’t get in at all.

GEM comes to the party too at T+96!!!! Sorry can’t post charts.

It's not on the scale of MetO, but that (and ECM) are sniffing something which GFS is reluctant to pick up on.

Talking of MetO, that 144 chart is tantalising. A chunk of heights from the ridge heads west over Greenland, coinciding with a weak ridge moving eastwards from Canada. That has the effect of squeezing the life out of that upper trough complex to our west, which slows the pattern down in our neck of the woods. It's like watching a pebble slowing down the flow of water in a stream...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_96_1.png 

Wow- what a turn around in 48 hours- Cant say it wasnt expected.....

I'd suggest waiting for the ensembles and further output. ECM Det. was not representative of it's ensembles this morning.

See below 

GEM is fascinating. Remember that easterlies are (in)famous for causing a low-level cold feed to come in off the Continent which - as we saw last month - is perfectly capable of cooling down to snow-bearing levels in just a couple of days.

Have a look at these precipitation charts (only available on Meteociel AFAIK):

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=66&mode=2&carte=2

Run foward a few frames and you'll see areas of light rain, light freezing rain and light snow coming in from the east. What's going on there is that the snow-supporting layer of air is really thin - so much so that it's raining above it in some cases, which then becomes freezing rain as it passes through the cold layer.

As an Atlantic front then moves in it mixes the air up and leads to "proper" snow on its leading edge.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=2&carte=2

Fascinating stuff and a nightmare for forecasters.

Snow next Sat for many if the GEM 12z is right.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gem.aspx?run=12&charthour=144&chartname=ukpreciptyperatec&chartregion=uk&charttag=Precip%20type%20rate

Totally plausible given the background signals

😂😂😉

When even the BBC week ahead forecast at 1:15pm today was emphasising "high uncertainty" from mid-week onwards, we can assume nothing for sure at this time, Ian.