Wow what an amazing UKMO. Anyone claiming to know what will happen is kidding themselves the models are all over the place.

Thanks Doc 

GFSP brings the Atlantic through but again there is a suggestion of transient sleet/snow.

BBC this evening ( S Powell ) saying " high is the favoured outcome " ………..currently

ECM at 96 chilly I'd think 

End of the week the Atlantic still cant get in 

ECM 120

To further illustrate the current uncertainty, it was only a few days ago when the model output that we can see was indicating that the atlantic would be back in business by Wednesday/Thursday of the coming week and there would be little resistance from the HP block to the east. I did have a feeling even then that the block might prove harder to shift than the models first thought, and it wouldn't be the first time the models have been too quick in bringing the atlantic back into play.

144 from ECM has the Atlantic encroaching further East than UKMO ……………….FI for sure though

ECM 12z op run does bring the atlantic back in from next weekend, but then seems to want to slide the LP system towards the south of the UK instead of running it to the north of Scotland. Also hints from that of pressure trying to rise a bit to the north.

I think the coming week is going to be very interesting from a model watching point of view.

* Also heights building over GH *

Be great if you could keep posting those each run - watching that band 

change to snow -

Hi Steve - a long running point of conjecture as to what the UKMO 168 actually is... as far as I can see it's not a continuation of the Deterministic Model run that we mortals get to see given that only runs to +144, rather it's the UM.MOGREPS-G control run? 

Maybe lets see tonight what 144 V 144 looks like on meteociel - ive always found them identical...

It’ll be interesting to see how this concludes. Will it prove that the models are initially overstating the strength of the jet currently and underplaying the resistance of any blocking high, only then having to adjust later? 

This might be a good litmus test for future winter model watching...! 

Too early to be sure of that, IMO. Tomorow's output will give us a better idea IMO as to whether or not it is off on one.

Like I said earlier, a few days ago the atlantic was meant to be back in control of proceedings by around the middle of the coming week, so even though it is looking likely that it will return next weekend, there is no way we can be sure of that at the moment.

It’ actually six hours slower than the 12z in pushing the mild air in.

Exactly David.  It was clear from the ensembles, particularly ECM, that there was doubt about what would happen.  It’s seldom wise to take the operational from one model in such situations.

It wouldn’t surprise me to see further adjustments and delays in the GFS as it’s still more progressive than UKMO and ECM.

Indeed. The GFS op output continues its consistent incremental delay in the Atlantic (inevitably) moving in.

Agreed, Peter.

I can still remember the extent to which some of the operational runs were all over the place in February this year, especially around the middle of the month around the time when the first indications appeared of the coming of the Beast from the East. Even normally trusted models such as GFS and ECM seems to be all at sea at one point, with both models at different times seemingly dropping the easterly in favour of the atlantic only to eventually agree on the coming of the blast from the east.

I think what happened then was that the models probably initially underestimated the strength of the block to the east and were still trying to factor in the effects of the major SSW event that month. I have read in recent days that there may well be another such event later this month, so it's still very much anyone's guess IMO as to what type of weather will dominate as we approach the festive season.

This evening's EC 15 dayer showing that any available real cold is reserved for eastern Europe in the run up to Christmas with a fairly standard pattern over the Atlantic. Eastern Canada also looks to be unusually warm so the prospects of even some decent storminess look grim. Groundhog day continues. 

A thing of beauty. Chart for Xmas Day.