As I said over on the other forum, I think a range of 30th December- 15th Jan should just about cover the period of interest as far as I'm concerned. So, a while to go. Should be some fun popping up in the modelling shortly though as the predicted SSW gets closer.

It's initiating circa day 10 at the moment.

GFSP is even more striking with the warming by the way- up to +8c. Impressive.

Toasty strat

Yes look at latest strenght of zonal westerlies at 60'N on weatheris cool - it shows from end of December into January and most of if not all of January we are due to go very negative some go in reverse:

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Watching Gavs breakdown of strat events the other day, and he pointed out that the near record breaking cold spell in December 2010 occurred without any strat warming at all. Surface cold in around the Arctic region was a much bigger player that month. 

FWIW I am not aware of there being any SSW before the late Dec 2009/early Jan 2010 severe cold spell either. I think there was such an event a little later in 2010 (think it was February but not certain of that), but it came after the coldest weather had passed although I remember the cold lasting well into March that year.

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FWIW I am not aware of there being any SSW before the late Dec 2009/early Jan 2010 severe cold spell either. I think there was such an event a little later in 2010 (think it was February but not certain of that), but it came after the coldest weather had passed although I remember the cold lasting well into March that year.

The fact that we can get very cold spells without significant Strat warming or polar wind reversals may be just as well - proponents of the Strat temperature will notice that GFS 06 is much less keen on significant Siberian sector warming at 10HPa than previously.

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The fact that we can get very cold spells without significant Strat warming or polar wind reversals may be just as well - proponents of the Strat temperature will notice that GFS 06 is much less keen on significant Siberian sector warming at 10HPa than previously.

Yes well I posed the question over the weekend that surely FI charts showing major SSWs are just as infallible as any other FI charts? There really isn't much for coldies to cheer about at the moment and after this week's possible very transient event, the weekend is looking exceptionally mild again.

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We have another 'pizza' this again?

 

 

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The fact that we can get very cold spells without significant Strat warming or polar wind reversals may be just as well - proponents of the Strat temperature will notice that GFS 06 is much less keen on significant Siberian sector warming at 10HPa than previously.

 

Looks similar to previous runs to me 8c on Christmas day .

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.......the weekend is looking exceptionally mild again.

Really?? Where?? Not in your neck of the woods it's not. Forecast I can see is circa 7-8, hardly exceptionally mild !! You are such a mild ramper lol.

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Really?? Where?? Not in your neck of the woods it's not. Forecast I can see is circa 7-8, hardly exceptionally mild !! You are such a mild ramper lol.

Have another look at Saturday 18z. 14c is exceptionally mild for mid December.

 

 

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Back to the SSW that's being consistently forecast by models: - Latest on 06z run.

 

I wanted to ask does the center of the warming i.e 0c or +5c have to be directly over the North Pole or just within the Arctic circle to have a major SSW - it get's up to -15 or -10 at best but the warmest strat air temp is 0c or +5c and on meteociel it's +8c but this never get's directly on top of N. Pole it stays off the top of N. Siberia?

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Back to the SSW that's being consistently forecast by models: - Latest on 06z run.

 

I wanted to ask does the center of the warming i.e 0c or +5c have to be directly over the North Pole or just within the Arctic circle to have a major SSW - it get's up to -15 or -10 at best but the warmest strat air temp is 0c or +5c and on meteociel it's +8c but this never get's directly on top of N. Pole it stays off the top of N. Siberia?

How do you post images ?? Was trying to show Whiteout the chart for Saturday showing the extreme mildness but don't know how to.

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Back to the SSW that's being consistently forecast by models: - Latest on 06z run.

 

I wanted to ask does the center of the warming i.e 0c or +5c have to be directly over the North Pole or just within the Arctic circle to have a major SSW - it get's up to -15 or -10 at best but the warmest strat air temp is 0c or +5c and on meteociel it's +8c but this never get's directly on top of N. Pole it stays off the top of N. Siberia?

This is the question I've been asking for sometime. This doesn't resemble the truely sudden warming over the Pole last February but seems to be imported from elsewhere. (Siberia).  I don't think the two are directly comparable and certainly the impact on hemispheric weather patterns has the potential to be entirely different....that's assuming it happens as progged of course. 

We also are now into the westerly phase of the QBO - which will have its say before long. Which big driver will win out ??

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Back to the nearer future and I see there has a been a major correction on the GEFS 6Z ensemble to show the cooler air holding on this week, at last.

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Some very mild options now showing in the run-up to Christmas on the 0600 GFS ensembles......

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Some very mild options now showing in the run-up to Christmas on the 0600 GFS ensembles......

Mild towards Christmas DAY? - makes a change doesn't it??

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Have another look at Saturday 18z. 14c is exceptionally mild for mid December.

 

 

According to the Met, 7-8 both sat and sun 

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This is the question I've been asking for sometime. This doesn't resemble the truely sudden warming over the Pole last February but seems to be imported from elsewhere. (Siberia).  I don't think the two are directly comparable and certainly the impact on hemispheric weather patterns has the potential to be entirely different....that's assuming it happens as progged of course. 

We also are now into the westerly phase of the QBO - which will have its say before long. Which big driver will win out ??

 

I don't know either - but like last February the SSW started in Siberian side if I remember. I don't understand why It doesn't warm up over the N, POLE/ARCTIC. - Why does it always warm up either side of the Arctic for warmer uppers in strat to push into Arctic /N. Pole? Why doesn't the warming ever start off in Arctic/North Pole? Anyone?

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I don't know either - but like last February the SSW started in Siberian side if I remember. I don't understand why It doesn't warm up over the N, POLE/ARCTIC. - Why does it always warm up either side of the Arctic for warmer uppers in strat to push into Arctic /N. Pole? Why doesn't the warming ever start off in Arctic/North Pole? Anyone?

One reason could be that it's totally dark and away from the fringes of the Arctic circle. It's only a suggestion and there are many other factors that also fit into this jigsaw.

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ECM 00z ensemble for London

Finally the GFS op has deciphered the pattern for this week with the cold air becoming established until late Friday - or Saturday per ECM.

The warm up shown by ECM (for the second successive run) is notable: a high of 3c on Friday to a high of 13c 24 hours later. The op was amongst the mildest options, but double digits looks quite possible at this point.

Beyond that nothing exceptionally cold but the milder options diminish somewhat. At this stage you'd favour a Christmas with normal to slight cool conditions, with highs of 5-8c and lows of 3-5c.

 

 

 

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At this stage you'd favour a Christmas with normal to slight cool conditions, with highs of 5-8c and lows of 3-5c.

 

 riveting...

 

The charts certainly have a non-descript look to them at the moment.

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signs that the "atlantic pushing through on saturday might already be under threat, with less rainfall, and less intensity and more drier Block type weather for UK at the same stage on the latest run... on Saturday.

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