People have forgotten what happened last winter ;)

As you know Dave that means nothing , different year different weather 

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I think the Easterly need putting out of its misery now rather than arguing the toss over whether it gives us a few hours of sleet/wet snow  as its all rather pointless when the Atlantic will just burst through in the long run. Let’s see where the pattern takes us after this.

For all the positve signs and favourable NH Synoptics we're still chasing shadows for the next 7-10 days at least, and possibly beyond.

I think the Easterly need putting out of its misery now rather than arguing the toss over whether it gives us a few hours of sleet/wet snow  as its all rather pointless when the Atlantic will just burst through in the long run. Let’s see where the pattern takes us after this.

For all the positve signs and favourable NH Synoptics we're still chasing shadows for the next 7-10 days at least, and possibly beyond.

Totally agree , fast forward into Jan IMO , obviously enjoying Xmas on the way 

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ECM 12z ensemble for London 

 

There’s new uncertainty around the transition from blocked to more changeable conditions on Saturday, with the Op taking a much slower path to a milder outcome and one that isn’t without support.

From Day 10 there’s been a marked shift towards a milder outlook, with average or mild conditions dominating in the run up to Christmas.

 

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At least the SSW is still on in FI on Siberian side commencing from 24th Dec - then infiltrating into the Arctic/North Pole! 

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All the models shunt the block east by Saturday.

Thereafter westerly mobility in train, but the GFS 0z delivers a seasonal toppling NEly for Christmas Day. 

Enjoy it til the 6z.

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Thereafter westerly mobility in train, but the GFS 0z delivers a seasonal major pattern shift to a cold, blocked setup for Christmas Day. 

Fixed that for you.

If it came off as shown (and of course it won't), that would be the beginning of a cold spell. If you note what's happening upstream, the high is being reinforced by a second pulse of warm advection to the west and, further north, the Arctic High is drifting towards it. That'd be one hell of a cold spell around a week later!

 

 

 

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At least the SSW is still on in FI on Siberian side commencing from 24th Dec - then infiltrating into the Arctic/North Pole! 

its not a SSW just because it’s orange am sure you post the same charts every day - SSW is zonal wind reversal not shown on these charts

 

Fixed that for you.

If it came off as shown (and of course it won't), that would be the beginning of a cold spell. If you note what's happening upstream, the high is being reinforced by a second pulse of warm advection to the west and, further north, the Arctic High is drifting towards it. That'd be one hell of a cold spell around a week later!

 

Hmmm, Im not convinced of that hypothetical scenario. 

As someone once said, more runs are needed.

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The GFS in FI for Christmas Day and Boxing Day reminds me of the game show Bullseye....
"This is what you could of won" but instead you get the consolation prize of Bully's low and associated mild weather.......

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The GFS in FI for Christmas Day and Boxing Day reminds me of the game show Bullseye....
"This is what you could of won" but instead you get the consolation prize of Bully's low and associated mild weather.......

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Apparent emerging trend on GFS in FI of high pressure development over Scandinavia from 26th:  One to watch as there as been a propensity for repeated short term (so far) blocking patterns. The jet regularly heads off for a winter break to Spain, then buckles likes a writing snake, and this pattern has already repeated twice, and shown as doing so again in FI. It's a n option only right now, but will it trend.

interesting just how flip floppy the GFS was about this coming short faux cold easterly, but maybe the next one will advect colder air from the continent or subarctic this next time - as hinted by GFS FI... 

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😆😆😆👍👍

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Apparent emerging trend on GFS in FI of high pressure development over Scandinavia from 26th:  One to watch as there as been a propensity for repeated short term (so far) blocking patterns. The jet regularly heads off for a winter break to Spain, then buckles likes a writing snake, and this pattern has already repeated twice, and shown as doing so again in FI. It's a n option only right now, but will it trend.

interesting just how flip floppy the GFS was about this coming short faux cold easterly, but maybe the next one will advect colder air from the continent or subarctic this next time - as hinted by GFS FI... 

Quite agree about the pressure patterns, but the key words are 'faux cold'; the positive temp anomaly over eastern Europe is shocking

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Transient snow events are possible as the Atlantic pushes in from time to time, but the best we can hope for is some sleety stuff in the south and maybe some hill snow in the north.

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UKMO extended has high pressure edging up towards the south leaving the UK in a milder flow 

 

its not a SSW just because it’s orange am sure you post the same charts every day - SSW is zonal wind reversal not shown on these charts

OK so that's a SW?

But on here we are talking about a SSW!! Strange plus this site weatheriscool.com is pointing to a reversal of Zonal winds in some models and a weaking of zonal winds:

 

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Quite agree about the pressure patterns, but the key words are 'faux cold'; the positive temp anomaly over eastern Europe is shocking

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4

Transient snow events are possible as the Atlantic pushes in from time to time, but the best we can hope for is some sleety stuff in the south and maybe some hill snow in the north.

The anomaly over eastern Europe next week is between 0 and 2c; hardly significant or dramatic surely?

The charts haven’t ever really suggested either an extended cold spell or a particularly cold one.  

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Pretty bog standard early winter fayre on offer as we progress into the month with signs of some milder weather as we approach the Christmas week

Pretty bog standard early winter fayre on offer as we progress into the month with signs of some milder weather as we approach the Christmas week

Not to mention signs of colder weather as we approach Christmas week.

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That wedge of mild atlantic air due to "sweep the UK" is shrinking and diving more and more on every run.

I really wouldnt write off a very quickly evolving proper easterly to surprise us all at some point today or tomorrow.

Even the FI seems happy to arrive at this with blocking seemingly a darkhorse contender here...

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