Good cross model agrreement too 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_192_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU00_192_1.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU00_192_1.png 

 

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Very progressive ECM this morning with the charts taking on the 'zonal bowl' look as we head towards Xmas.

 

 

All I ever see is the word progressive and zonal. Change the record, others see so much more. 

 

thought GFS was best in this situation- selective!!

The ECM has been pretty solid in showing zonality over the last few runs, whereas we have only recently seen a change by the GFS to something more blocked; we must support the ECM solution as much more likely for days 7 onwards.

 

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Very progressive ECM this morning with the charts taking on the 'zonal bowl' look as we head towards Xmas.

 

That is the way it has been looking for a while now. If there is any hope to be had with this model for those looking for cold, then it is in the long term ensembles, which seem to continue to hint a plunge in the AO index once we head into the early part of January. If this comes to pass as forecast, then it might take a while before this would reflected in the NAO, but the signals continue (for now) to be there.  

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Dreadful ECM this morning with the Atlantic looking to take control

 

The ECM has been pretty solid in showing zonality over the last few runs, whereas we have only recently seen a change by the GFS to something more blocked; we must support the ECM solution as much more likely for days 7 onwards.

 

You are either trying to wind people up or you've been on the port this morning ian....ECM is not a true zonal chart and why is that more likely to be right ????

 

The ECM has been pretty solid in showing zonality over the last few runs, whereas we have only recently seen a change by the GFS to something more blocked; we must support the ECM solution as much more likely for days 7 onwards.

 

i have been seeing blocking becoming more influential in the charts, all hypothetical- soon see what wins out. I hope GFS is onto something 

 

You are either trying to wind people up or you've been on the port this morning ian....ECM is not a true zonal chart and why is that more likely to be right ????

I think we know the answer to the first question. The ECM over the last few days has shown varying options so the suggestion that it has been consistent beyond day 7 is incorrect. The GFS has not been consistent in that time period either, this morning is no exception.

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ECM serving up more fast moving westward driven eastward flowing pre Christmas pizza:

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Very progressive ECM this morning with the charts taking on the 'zonal bowl' look as we head towards Xmas.

 

Ah, the latest expert input from the man who was stating with misplaced certainty that by today we would be in a zonal pattern.  So, if you were completely wrong less than a week ago, what are the chances of your latest interpretation being right?

Have you missed the chopping and changing from run to run and the lack of cross model agreement, not to mention the uncertainty evident in the ensembles?

‘Progressive’ is one possible scenario but it’s not being shown with any consistency.

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Pizza is quickly the most annoying thing to be said when you have so many potential systems moving across. Should be banned

 

I think we know the answer to the first question. The ECM over the last few days has shown varying options so the suggestion that it has been consistent beyond day 7 is incorrect. The GFS has not been consistent in that time period either, this morning is no exception.

I would say the GEFS has been sniffing out a pressure rise to our W/NW for the last few days whether it’s right of course remains to be seen, however just picking one model because it’s showing a more mobile set up over the last couple of runs is cherry picking to put it mildly. There’s far too much inconsistency in the output to make any bold statements.

Pizza is quickly the most annoying thing to be said when you have so many potential systems moving across. Should be banned

You see a lot of pizza on the Hawaiian model.

Wide range of solutions post 120 again this morning which as I said yesterday may be a sign of a big pattern change in the offing that is causing resolution problems.

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The ECM has been pretty solid in showing zonality over the last few runs, whereas we have only recently seen a change by the GFS to something more blocked; we must support the ECM solution as much more likely for days 7 onwards.

 

 

In all fairness Ian, members will note that your calling zonal has been a distinct feature of this winter, indeed based on your calls last week we should be experiencing zonality currently, when in fact here in the London suburbs we have glorious winter sunshine and a freeze up on an easterly flow. There is much uncertainty in the model runs, yet you cherry pick, which is misleading (and has already been proved inaccurate).

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The ECM has been pretty solid in showing zonality over the last few runs, whereas we have only recently seen a change by the GFS to something more blocked; we must support the ECM solution as much more likely for days 7 onwards.

 

I think that many of us could bet our last dollar that were the roles reversed and GFS was going for the unsettled scenario and ECM the blocked one, you would be touting the GFS as being the more likely evolution of the two going forward.

Most of us know pretty well by now how your mind works, Ian.

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Dreadful ECM this morning with the Atlantic looking to take control

Not the best ECM run for sure if you are a coldie, but I'm not sure I'd go as far as describing it as "dreadful".

IIRC, we were looking at far worse model runs than that on a daily basis this time back in 2015, as a good recent example.

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Both GFS and GFSP suggesting something more blocked in the run-up to Christmas this morning, and the GEFS also showing a definite dip in 850s until just before Christmas, at which point it reverts to wide scatter.

ECM can’t be discounted but I think talk of a mild and zonal festive period is pretty premature at this stage.

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In all fairness Ian, members will note that your calling zonal has been a distinct feature of this winter,

 

This winter...?

Look, he's an attention-seeking troll. I guess he's a lonely guy who is generally ignored in 'real life' so inhabits messageboards to write wind-up posts that get reactions and make him feel relevant.

Perhaps we should pity him - although when half the posts in the MO thread always end up talking about the trolling posts of one member, it kinda ruins the discussion.

 

 

(and yes, I do see the irony of me adding to the posts that are all about Ian Brown)

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 There is much uncertainty in the model runs, yet you cherry pick, which is misleading (and has already been proved inaccurate).

 

how is it misleading?  I understood this to be a Model Discussion thread - not a forecast thread... I think everyone knows that some posters have a bias towards certain weather types...  but they should still have every right to discuss the models as they see fit imo, without personal attacks - which I find more distasteful than anything else on here...

 

 

how is it misleading?  I understood this to be a Model Discussion thread - not a forecast thread... I think everyone knows that some posters have a bias towards certain weather types...  but they should still have every right to discuss the models as they see fit imo, without personal attacks - which I find more distasteful than anything else on here...

Of course everyone's has a right to discuss the models.  But when you make a prediction it is misleading if you don't put some context.

There is also a world of difference between pointing out someone's posting bias and a personal attack.

Using the word 'distasteful' actually does lower the tone, which I think makes your post rather counterproductive.

 

 

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