The Weather Outlook

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doctormog
07 December 2018 21:50:18
I wonder if the GFS 18z op run will follow the snowy scenario for the end of next weeek for many shown on the 12z ECM op run?
Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

JMM2005
07 December 2018 21:52:39
This winter will twist and turn we have all heard the buzz and dreamed of the hopeful expectation of a noteworthy cold one. Something is up that for sure but what and how it will manifest its self is unclear whether it’s SSW or some other driver let’s not all take it too seriously let watch learn and observe. Weather has happened on this planet for over 4 billion years and we only reliably know the day to day detail for anywhere on this planet in our small country let alone globally for about 300 years so let’s get stuff in perspective here. Will will watch, hope, hope-cast, dream and get disappointed on this forum and any other more time than watching our favourite team play any sport. So let watch express our thoughts , hopes and disappointments together and enjoy the fact we live in a country that let be honest, generally delivers 48 weeks of October weather 2 weeks of January and 2 weeks of July at best and every thing else is a bonus. And on that basis this year we have had some good bonuses already.
Justin

Brighton seafront

Webcam of the beach and Brighton's palace pier

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/united-kingdom/england/brighton/brighton-pier.html 

Stolen Snowman
07 December 2018 22:19:20

This winter will twist and turn we have all heard the buzz and dreamed of the hopeful expectation of a noteworthy cold one. Something is up that for sure but what and how it will manifest its self is unclear whether it’s SSW or some other driver let’s not all take it too seriously let watch learn and observe. Weather has happened on this planet for over 4 billion years and we only reliably know the day to day detail for anywhere on this planet in our small country let alone globally for about 300 years so let’s get stuff in perspective here. Will will watch, hope, hope-cast, dream and get disappointed on this forum and any other more time than watching our favourite team play any sport. So let watch express our thoughts , hopes and disappointments together and enjoy the fact we live in a country that let be honest, generally delivers 48 weeks of October weather 2 weeks of January and 2 weeks of July at best and every thing else is a bonus. And on that basis this year we have had some good bonuses already.

Originally Posted by: JMM2005 

There certainly is lots of interest in the models this winter so far and long may it continue. After all, isn’t that part of the fun?

Statistics prove that the period just after records began witnessed some of the most extreme weather ever recorded. Records were being broken on a frequency that has not been repeated since.

Posting live from a pub somewhere in Burton upon Trent

Steve Murr
07 December 2018 22:22:12

That would be good enough for most Steve as we all know we dont need massive -ve 850s in s/e feed its happened before we just need more of them to grow.

 

 

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

 

indeed - The 18z has again moved to the Euro solution ( which ive highlighted on the other side ) 

Fun times ahead....

Brian Gaze
07 December 2018 22:51:10

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Polar Low
07 December 2018 22:55:01

Running late tonight want to see those at 150

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=24

 

 

 

indeed - The 18z has again moved to the Euro solution ( which ive highlighted on the other side ) 

Fun times ahead....

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

Steve Murr
07 December 2018 23:01:09
FV3 much sharper at 96 as well than the 12z

Just waiting for the energy to close a shallow low to the SW of the UK

S

Shropshire
07 December 2018 23:14:56

A progressive GFS 18Z  with heights building over Iberia towards day 10.

 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Polar Low
07 December 2018 23:18:04
Shropshire
07 December 2018 23:19:26

Rather more want the short-wave 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=96

 

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 

It's of no consequence - the cold enough air never reaches the UK.

 

 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Polar Low
07 December 2018 23:22:30

its the trend I want Ian if it closes we are in the money the cold will come, looks further west on the P also

 

It's of no consequence - the cold enough air never reaches the UK.

 

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Gandalf The White
07 December 2018 23:55:10

A progressive GFS 18Z  with heights building over Iberia towards day 10.

 

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

So, pretty much the same pressure pattern that we have right now and not much different to Day 6 when the trough slides away SE.

 

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



tallyho_83
08 December 2018 01:49:44

 

 

I think the earliest effects for the UK from the SSW will start early January Tally.

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

People stress my analysis's are poor but i see LP over the pole /Arctic on the 12z chart!?

But yes could be a sign of things to come and usually before a SSW we tend to get an increase in milder zonal weather anyway!? I have realised this as it's usually the case. - Here's to a snowy and wintry start to 2019 then??

Home Location - Vixen Tor Close, Okehampton, Devon (221m ASL)

---------------------------------------

Sean Moon

Magical Moon

www.magical-moon.com

Steve Murr
08 December 2018 04:49:32
Brian Gaze
08 December 2018 06:47:51

The GEFS during the last week or so has provided a good example of how even ensemble models can't be relied on at relatively short range in the UK. That blip of below average 850s on the chart below between 9/12 and 11/12 was until a few days a cold/ish period lasting for about one week. Quite a few runs kept the chill in place for longer than that. Of course the implication is the reverse could also happen in the future. It's a good lesson for anyone new who may be reading this thread!  

Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

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Downpour
08 December 2018 08:20:47
Some interesting charts on offer for breakfast this morning. From my standpoint, some cleaner, dryer weather as we head into the festive period would be welcome.
Chingford

London E4

147ft

doctormog
08 December 2018 08:21:51

That is indeed true Brian for some parts which could have been impacted by a colder continental flow but it is certainly not the case in others. The blip is actually colder here and much more clearly defined and the ensemble mean had not changed notably one way or the other.

I think it does show that:
(1) the output is not infallible and, although the more data you look at the better a picture you get, it can all still change,
(2) things are finely balanced a few days out and a small change of a few hundred miles will have large repercussions one way or the other.

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

ballamar
08 December 2018 08:43:38

That is indeed true Brian for some parts which could have been impacted by a colder continental flow but it is certainly not the case in others. The blip is actually colder here and much more clearly defined and the ensemble mean had not changed notably one way or the other.

I think it does show that:
(1) the output is not infallible and, although the more data you look at the better a picture you get, it can all still change,
(2) things are finely balanced a few days out and a small change of a few hundred miles will have large repercussions one way or the other.

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

certainly not boring and as you say finely balanced, I think a few more twists and what happens at the end of the week could define the next couple!

hope it’s colder option

Solar Cycles
08 December 2018 08:44:19
I’d say if anything the models have taken a step forward in bringing wintry Synoptics into play as we approach Xmas plenty of marginal cold uppers in the mix of undercutting lows I’d say.
JACKO4EVER
08 December 2018 08:50:52
Morning all, plenty of interest again this morning and as others have highlighted above- slight changes over a couple of hundred miles or so will make all the differences in the weather we experience. And let’s be honest, we can’t expect models to be so precise at such time periods.
Shropshire
08 December 2018 09:06:49

UKMO

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1021&ech=72&archive=0

Let it snow....

Originally Posted by: Steve Murr 

 

Bizarre 'analysis' !

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
Gandalf The White
08 December 2018 09:16:58

 

 

 

Bizarre 'analysis' !

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

Says the purveyor of bizarre analysis.

ROFL

Anyway, run the sequence of charts: it shows exactly what I said last night in response to your erroneous comment about weather systems charging in.

Location: South Cambridgeshire

130 metres ASL

52.0N 0.1E



Shropshire
08 December 2018 09:28:08

 

 

Says the purveyor of bizarre analysis.

ROFL

Anyway, run the sequence of charts: it shows exactly what I said last night in response to your erroneous comment about weather systems charging in.

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Can someone point me in the direction of what Steve is talking about then from that UKMO chart ? Again the below -

 

  • Cold air not in place when the systems arrive.

  • flow turns West of South when system arrives - needs to be East of South.

Both or 1 of those parameters need to be in place for at least a temporary snow event (away from the highest ground) and they are not on any of the NWP I've seen this morning.

 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
doctormog
08 December 2018 09:28:15

 

 

Bizarre 'analysis' !

Originally Posted by: Shropshire 

No not really.

Anyway I’m still waiting for your comment on the ECM showing snow when you said none of the models were. Do you now recognise you were wrong?

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Shropshire
08 December 2018 09:32:46

 

No not really.

Anyway I’m still waiting for your comment on the ECM showing snow when you said none of the models were. Do you now recognise you were wrong?

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I don't know why it is showing snow when  the parameters are not there from it's own data - possibly for the highest ground ? Perhaps someone could explain. Darren ?

 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.

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