Where does this sit in the ENS? Very interesting for sure, high uncertainty again

Wow what an amazing UKMO. Anyone claiming to know what will happen is kidding themselves the models are all over the place.

 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU12_96_1.png 

Thanks Doc 

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GFSP brings the Atlantic through but again there is a suggestion of transient sleet/snow.

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When even the BBC week ahead forecast at 1:15pm today was emphasising "high uncertainty" from mid-week onwards, we can assume nothing for sure at this time, Ian.

BBC this evening ( S Powell ) saying " high is the favoured outcome " ………..currently

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ECM at 96 chilly I'd think 

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End of the week the Atlantic still cant get in 

ECM 120

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Wow what an amazing UKMO. Anyone claiming to know what will happen is kidding themselves the models are all over the place.

 

To further illustrate the current uncertainty, it was only a few days ago when the model output that we can see was indicating that the atlantic would be back in business by Wednesday/Thursday of the coming week and there would be little resistance from the HP block to the east. I did have a feeling even then that the block might prove harder to shift than the models first thought, and it wouldn't be the first time the models have been too quick in bringing the atlantic back into play.

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144 from ECM has the Atlantic encroaching further East than UKMO ……………….FI for sure though

 

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ECM 12z op run does bring the atlantic back in from next weekend, but then seems to want to slide the LP system towards the south of the UK instead of running it to the north of Scotland. Also hints from that of pressure trying to rise a bit to the north.

I think the coming week is going to be very interesting from a model watching point of view.

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Just waiting for the UKMO 168 however taken at face value UKMO 144 has a classic curvature of the isolines back into the continent & the flow of the atlantic indicates its not going to make it-
* Also heights building over GH *

GFSP brings the Atlantic through but again there is a suggestion of transient sleet/snow.

 

Be great if you could keep posting those each run - watching that band 

change to snow -

Just waiting for the UKMO 168 however taken at face value UKMO 144 has a classic curvature of the isolines back into the continent & the flow of the atlantic indicates its not going to make it-
* Also heights building over GH *

Hi Steve - a long running point of conjecture as to what the UKMO 168 actually is... as far as I can see it's not a continuation of the Deterministic Model run that we mortals get to see given that only runs to +144, rather it's the UM.MOGREPS-G control run? 

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Hi Steve - a long running point of conjecture as to what the UKMO 168 actually is... as far as I can see it's not a continuation of the Deterministic Model run that we mortals get to see given that only runs to +144, rather it's the UM.MOGREPS-G control run? 

Maybe lets see tonight what 144 V 144 looks like on meteociel - ive always found them identical...

 

To further illustrate the current uncertainty, it was only a few days ago when the model output that we can see was indicating that the atlantic would be back in business by Wednesday/Thursday of the coming week and there would be little resistance from the HP block to the east. I did have a feeling even then that the block might prove harder to shift than the models first thought, and it wouldn't be the first time the models have been too quick in bringing the atlantic back into play.

Absolutely!  You only need to look at the MOD threads to see just how uncertain it’s been for at least the past two or three weeks.  Changing almost daily, with excited posts one day, then disappointment the next. But we can only discuss what the models show and they will be right eventually.  I just hope we’re not all disappointed tomorrow! I’m ready for a bit of festive weather.   

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Absolutely!  You only need to look at the MOD threads to see just how uncertain it’s been for at least the past two or three weeks.  Changing almost daily, with excited posts one day, then disappointment the next. But we can only discuss what the models show and they will be right eventually.  I just hope we’re not all disappointed tomorrow! I’m ready for a bit of festive weather.   

It’ll be interesting to see how this concludes. Will it prove that the models are initially overstating the strength of the jet currently and underplaying the resistance of any blocking high, only then having to adjust later? 

This might be a good litmus test for future winter model watching...! 

 

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Just another false dawn. UKMO Off on one

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18z smashes the Atlantic in.

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Just another false dawn. UKMO Off on one

Too early to be sure of that, IMO. Tomorow's output will give us a better idea IMO as to whether or not it is off on one.

Like I said earlier, a few days ago the atlantic was meant to be back in control of proceedings by around the middle of the coming week, so even though it is looking likely that it will return next weekend, there is no way we can be sure of that at the moment.

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18z smashes the Atlantic in.

It’ actually six hours slower than the 12z in pushing the mild air in.

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