theweatheroutlook

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dagspot
15 December 2022 11:32:49
tomorrows central belt snow event looks a bit more patchy and short lived in the bbc graphics today rather than the swathes of frontal snow once shown  
Neilston 600ft ASL
johncs2016
15 December 2022 13:15:25
A new Met Office yellow warning for snow and ice has been issued for Sunday ahead of the milder air which is being forecast to come in behind that.

That warning covers the whole of the UK except for the south of England (even SE England has a separate yellow warning for ice at that time), Northern Ireland and some coastal parts of the mainland of Great Britain and runs from 3am GMT (03:00 UTC) to 9am GMT (21:00 UTC) on Sunday.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Rob K
15 December 2022 13:58:02
Remember the old days when a forecast mild push from the SW would fail and get pushed back giving a dump of snow? I assume the models are too good for that these days...
Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl
"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome
dagspot
15 December 2022 14:46:40
BBC App now showing snow or least sleet everyday locally after the ‘mild snap’ out to 27th… 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gavin D
16 December 2022 19:15:20
BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

This weekend
  • Turning milder


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64008141 
Gavin D
17 December 2022 15:50:27
A mild Christmas is forecast for the south

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk 
doctormog
17 December 2022 17:39:35

A mild Christmas is forecast for the south “and temperatures will remain rather cold in the north with wintry showers likely and a risk of overnight frosts”.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



Interesting thanks.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
17 December 2022 18:49:19

A new Met Office yellow warning for snow and ice has been issued for Sunday ahead of the milder air which is being forecast to come in behind that.

That warning covers the whole of the UK except for the south of England (even SE England has a separate yellow warning for ice at that time), Northern Ireland and some coastal parts of the mainland of Great Britain and runs from 3am GMT (03:00 UTC) to 9am GMT (21:00 UTC) on Sunday.
 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



Don't forget the separate rain warning for much of the south coast. The Meto hour-by-hour forecast for Chichester has heavy rain, mostly with 95%+ probability, from 11am tomorrow (Sun) to mid-morning Monday without a break.

I've got to drive up to London for a family pre-Xmas do, and I have both food and presents to take. It looks as if starting early means that I'll get there before the rain starts and turns to ice on frozen surfaces, but I might have to avoid floods on the way back.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
johncs2016
17 December 2022 20:42:49

Don't forget the separate rain warning for much of the south coast. The Meto hour-by-hour forecast for Chichester has heavy rain, mostly with 95%+ probability, from 11am tomorrow (Sun) to mid-morning Monday without a break.

I've got to drive up to London for a family pre-Xmas do, and I have both food and presents to take. It looks as if starting early means that I'll get there before the rain starts and turns to ice on frozen surfaces, but I might have to avoid floods on the way back.

Originally Posted by: DEW 



Those rain warnings weren't there a couple of days ago though when I first posted that, but there has clearly been a lot of developments since then.

Furthermore, a lot of the higher res models have now downgraded tomorrow's snow risk for here and confined that to higher ground. Because of that, I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up just getting a bit of rain here during tomorrow before the really mild air moved in.

Having said that, even that could still bring the risk of freezing rain in places which get a frost tonight but even that isn't exactly guaranteed since the temperatures here are already refusing to drop here tonight and we're meant to still be in the relatively cold air at the moment.😡
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Gavin D
18 December 2022 12:15:01
Britain braces for rolling power cuts: Arctic blast leaves households on the brink of outages and blackouts as officials blame 'WFH' Met Office for failing to predict the severity of our latest big freeze
  • Britain faces rolling power cuts after Arctic blast hits the country in big freeze
  • Officials blamed the Met Office for work-from-home culture for not predicting it
  • Whitehall insider told MoS that forecasters 'underestimated' scale of winter chill 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11549923/Arctic-blast-leaves-Britain-bracing-power-cuts-officials-blame-WFH-Met-Office.html 
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
18 December 2022 12:45:45

Britain braces for rolling power cuts: Arctic blast leaves households on the brink of outages and blackouts as officials blame 'WFH' Met Office for failing to predict the severity of our latest big freeze

  • Britain faces rolling power cuts after Arctic blast hits the country in big freeze
  • Officials blamed the Met Office for work-from-home culture for not predicting it
  • Whitehall insider told MoS that forecasters 'underestimated' scale of winter chill 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11549923/Arctic-blast-leaves-Britain-bracing-power-cuts-officials-blame-WFH-Met-Office.html 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



I think it’s unfair blaming the Met Office for the lack of gas though I can see people like Rees Mogg doing that and often getting away with it. And others following and reinforcing his scapegoating. I’m sure though I read a couple of months ago that the Met Office were predicting a front loaded cold sort of winter which we appear to have just had. It’s the shortage of gas that’s leading to this sort of cliff hanger and I don’t think the Met Office are in the business of buying that commodity. Even a mild winter will still create an energy problem if we don’t have decent gas storage reserves. And one can I suppose blame that on our current maladministration in it’s various formats over the past decade for this shortfall.

Another thing is what constitutes a “Snap” or a “Spell”? The BBC refer to the recent cold as a snap whilst the Met Office have called it a spell. Which is it?
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
westv
18 December 2022 13:01:06

Britain braces for rolling power cuts: Arctic blast leaves households on the brink of outages and blackouts as officials blame 'WFH' Met Office for failing to predict the severity of our latest big freeze

  • Britain faces rolling power cuts after Arctic blast hits the country in big freeze
  • Officials blamed the Met Office for work-from-home culture for not predicting it
  • Whitehall insider told MoS that forecasters 'underestimated' scale of winter chill 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11549923/Arctic-blast-leaves-Britain-bracing-power-cuts-officials-blame-WFH-Met-Office.html 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Part of email I received from Northern Powergrid the other day
"Please read: Important advice about emergency power cuts
National Grid ESO has indicated that Emergency Power Cuts are unlikely to happen this winter, however, ongoing reports in the news have led to some customers contacting us as they are unsure or concerned what this might mean for them."
At least it will be mild!
Gandalf The White
18 December 2022 13:12:38

I think it’s unfair blaming the Met Office for the lack of gas though I can see people like Rees Mogg doing that and often getting away with it. And others following and reinforcing his scapegoating. I’m sure though I read a couple of months ago that the Met Office were predicting a front loaded cold sort of winter which we appear to have just had. It’s the shortage of gas that’s leading to this sort of cliff hanger and I don’t think the Met Office are in the business of buying that commodity. Even a mild winter will still create an energy problem if we don’t have decent gas storage reserves. And one can I suppose blame that on our current maladministration in it’s various formats over the past decade for this shortfall.

Another thing is what constitutes a “Snap” or a “Spell”? The BBC refer to the recent cold as a snap whilst the Met Office have called it a spell. Which is it?

Originally Posted by: NMA 



Agreed. I had one of those ‘you must be fcuk*** joking’ thoughts when I heard that.   Where exactly were we going to store all this extra gas, since this government authorised the closure of our main storage facility?  Plus, as you say, cold was favoured in December anyway.

I use the term ‘cold snap’ to describe a few days.  When it gets towards a week and more it’s definitely not a ‘cold snap’. 
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
18 December 2022 13:51:54

Part of email I received from Northern Powergrid the other day
"Please read: Important advice about emergency power cuts
National Grid ESO has indicated that Emergency Power Cuts are unlikely to happen this winter, however, ongoing reports in the news have led to some customers contacting us as they are unsure or concerned what this might mean for them."

Originally Posted by: westv 



No email but a leaflet that was dropped through the letterbox last week.
UserPostedImage
UserPostedImage

The gist is a remote prospect of power cuts this winter. Sort of 'move along now and don't panic nothing really to see but we’re just trying to cover ourselves.' As my friend in the industry says, the Govt. doesn't want us to talk about the decade of mismanagement on their watch. In his opinion it's not a 'remote' likelihood of power cuts either but rather when.

Oh and from another thread Brian posted this little skit which we've all had to pay for. Looks cheap and tacky which is a blessing I suppose.

And that’s as far as it goes (for now) when it comes to this Govt. discussing the knife edge we’re on.
Bloody Elves it is then Mr Shapps who are the culprits for the current mess we're in..

Nothing to do with Ministers who should be proactive and forward thinking but now find themselves staring over the abyss of their own making.
 
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
NMA
  • NMA
  • Advanced Member
18 December 2022 13:57:38

Agreed. I had one of those ‘you must be fcuk*** joking’ thoughts when I heard that.   Where exactly were we going to store all this extra gas, since this government authorised the closure of our main storage facility?  Plus, as you say, cold was favoured in December anyway.

I use the term ‘cold snap’ to describe a few days.  When it gets towards a week and more it’s definitely not a ‘cold snap’. 

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 



That's my view too. A 'snap' is about three days and a 'spell'  a week or more. 
Vale of the Great Dairies
South Dorset
Elevation 60m 197ft
westv
18 December 2022 14:03:12
Well I think a snap = 1 or 2 days, a spell = a week, a period = more than a week.
At least it will be mild!
Gavin D
18 December 2022 19:16:48
BBC Weather for the Week Ahead
  • Much milder
  • Wet and Windy
  • Risk of local flooding
  • Unsettled into Christmas


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64014198 
moomin75
18 December 2022 19:20:01

BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

  • Much milder
  • Wet and Windy
  • Risk of local flooding
  • Unsettled into Christmas


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64014198 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



Yep, this pretty much sums up what lies ahead for 95% of the UK.
Absolutely awful weather in the run up, and probably beyond Christmas. 
Witney, Oxfordshire
100m ASL
doctormog
18 December 2022 19:23:40
The week ahead forecast just highlighted the uncertainty over the Christmas period and risk of the cold air in the north moving south. I suspect there is still a while before there is any confidence re. next weekend’s weather.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Whiteout
19 December 2022 15:16:47
I have seen worse Met updates:


Confidence is unusually low for the Christmas weekend; a north/south divide with cold air, wintry showers and increased risk of more significant snow in the north, and milder conditions with rain and showers in the south, is likely, but where the boundary will be is very uncertain. Eventually, as we head towards the New Year, the colder conditions are more likely to come to dominate, with wintry showers in the north and potential for a more settled spell to develop. This would bring below average temperatures, potential for areas of freezing fog with widespread overnight frosts, and very low temperatures given any snow cover. Towards the end of the period, there are signs of a trend towards more changeable weather, with an upturn in temperatures.

😁
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl
Gavin D
19 December 2022 20:48:21
BBC weather for the week ahead not really showing anything overly cold over the next 10 days for the vast majority, maybe some snow and colder at times in Scotland, but that's not uncommon for the time of year

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64033690 
Gary L
20 December 2022 15:54:26
Bit of a shift for the longer range text from the met office, think it's the first time I've seen mention of a potential mid month cold spell.

4-18 January
Confidence remains low at the start of the year. There is a signal for generally settled conditions, interspersed between periods of wet and windy weather, and a usual chance of snow. Temperatures are likely to be around normal, with some colder conditions perhaps developing again around mid January
dagspot
20 December 2022 17:01:05
Fawksie’s first mention of ‘disruptive’ snow for the north for Christmas period  #UsualCaveats
and Stav  ‘colder weather sinking south’ 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gavin D
20 December 2022 20:25:39
BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

Christmas
  • Hill snow possible north Scotland
  • Heavy rain could bring localised flooding to south England


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64033692 
Gavin D
21 December 2022 19:01:27
Met office 10 day trend

Next week
  • Changeable
  • Wet and windy spells
  • Brief colder spells



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