tomorrows central belt snow event looks a bit more patchy and short lived in the bbc graphics today rather than the swathes of frontal snow once shown  

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A new Met Office yellow warning for snow and ice has been issued for Sunday ahead of the milder air which is being forecast to come in behind that.

That warning covers the whole of the UK except for the south of England (even SE England has a separate yellow warning for ice at that time), Northern Ireland and some coastal parts of the mainland of Great Britain and runs from 3am GMT (03:00 UTC) to 9am GMT (21:00 UTC) on Sunday.
 

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Remember the old days when a forecast mild push from the SW would fail and get pushed back giving a dump of snow? I assume the models are too good for that these days...

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BBC App now showing snow or least sleet everyday locally after the ‘mild snap’ out to 27th… 

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BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

This weekend

• Turning milder

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64008141 

A mild Christmas is forecast for the south

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk 

A mild Christmas is forecast for the south “and temperatures will remain rather cold in the north with wintry showers likely and a risk of overnight frosts”.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk 

Interesting thanks.

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A new Met Office yellow warning for snow and ice has been issued for Sunday ahead of the milder air which is being forecast to come in behind that.

That warning covers the whole of the UK except for the south of England (even SE England has a separate yellow warning for ice at that time), Northern Ireland and some coastal parts of the mainland of Great Britain and runs from 3am GMT (03:00 UTC) to 9am GMT (21:00 UTC) on Sunday.
 

Don't forget the separate rain warning for much of the south coast. The Meto hour-by-hour forecast for Chichester has heavy rain, mostly with 95%+ probability, from 11am tomorrow (Sun) to mid-morning Monday without a break.

I've got to drive up to London for a family pre-Xmas do, and I have both food and presents to take. It looks as if starting early means that I'll get there before the rain starts and turns to ice on frozen surfaces, but I might have to avoid floods on the way back.

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Don't forget the separate rain warning for much of the south coast. The Meto hour-by-hour forecast for Chichester has heavy rain, mostly with 95%+ probability, from 11am tomorrow (Sun) to mid-morning Monday without a break.

I've got to drive up to London for a family pre-Xmas do, and I have both food and presents to take. It looks as if starting early means that I'll get there before the rain starts and turns to ice on frozen surfaces, but I might have to avoid floods on the way back.

Those rain warnings weren't there a couple of days ago though when I first posted that, but there has clearly been a lot of developments since then.

Furthermore, a lot of the higher res models have now downgraded tomorrow's snow risk for here and confined that to higher ground. Because of that, I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up just getting a bit of rain here during tomorrow before the really mild air moved in.

Having said that, even that could still bring the risk of freezing rain in places which get a frost tonight but even that isn't exactly guaranteed since the temperatures here are already refusing to drop here tonight and we're meant to still be in the relatively cold air at the moment.😡
 

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Britain braces for rolling power cuts: Arctic blast leaves households on the brink of outages and blackouts as officials blame 'WFH' Met Office for failing to predict the severity of our latest big freeze

• Britain faces rolling power cuts after Arctic blast hits the country in big freeze
• Officials blamed the Met Office for work-from-home culture for not predicting it
• Whitehall insider told MoS that forecasters 'underestimated' scale of winter chill 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11549923/Arctic-blast-leaves-Britain-bracing-power-cuts-officials-blame-WFH-Met-Office.html 

Britain braces for rolling power cuts: Arctic blast leaves households on the brink of outages and blackouts as officials blame 'WFH' Met Office for failing to predict the severity of our latest big freeze

• Britain faces rolling power cuts after Arctic blast hits the country in big freeze
• Officials blamed the Met Office for work-from-home culture for not predicting it
• Whitehall insider told MoS that forecasters 'underestimated' scale of winter chill 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11549923/Arctic-blast-leaves-Britain-bracing-power-cuts-officials-blame-WFH-Met-Office.html 

I think it’s unfair blaming the Met Office for the lack of gas though I can see people like Rees Mogg doing that and often getting away with it. And others following and reinforcing his scapegoating. I’m sure though I read a couple of months ago that the Met Office were predicting a front loaded cold sort of winter which we appear to have just had. It’s the shortage of gas that’s leading to this sort of cliff hanger and I don’t think the Met Office are in the business of buying that commodity. Even a mild winter will still create an energy problem if we don’t have decent gas storage reserves. And one can I suppose blame that on our current maladministration in it’s various formats over the past decade for this shortfall.

Another thing is what constitutes a “Snap” or a “Spell”? The BBC refer to the recent cold as a snap whilst the Met Office have called it a spell. Which is it?

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Britain braces for rolling power cuts: Arctic blast leaves households on the brink of outages and blackouts as officials blame 'WFH' Met Office for failing to predict the severity of our latest big freeze

• Britain faces rolling power cuts after Arctic blast hits the country in big freeze
• Officials blamed the Met Office for work-from-home culture for not predicting it
• Whitehall insider told MoS that forecasters 'underestimated' scale of winter chill 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11549923/Arctic-blast-leaves-Britain-bracing-power-cuts-officials-blame-WFH-Met-Office.html 

Part of email I received from Northern Powergrid the other day
"Please read: Important advice about emergency power cuts
National Grid ESO has indicated that Emergency Power Cuts are unlikely to happen this winter, however, ongoing reports in the news have led to some customers contacting us as they are unsure or concerned what this might mean for them."

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I think it’s unfair blaming the Met Office for the lack of gas though I can see people like Rees Mogg doing that and often getting away with it. And others following and reinforcing his scapegoating. I’m sure though I read a couple of months ago that the Met Office were predicting a front loaded cold sort of winter which we appear to have just had. It’s the shortage of gas that’s leading to this sort of cliff hanger and I don’t think the Met Office are in the business of buying that commodity. Even a mild winter will still create an energy problem if we don’t have decent gas storage reserves. And one can I suppose blame that on our current maladministration in it’s various formats over the past decade for this shortfall.

Another thing is what constitutes a “Snap” or a “Spell”? The BBC refer to the recent cold as a snap whilst the Met Office have called it a spell. Which is it?

Agreed. I had one of those ‘you must be fcuk*** joking’ thoughts when I heard that.   Where exactly were we going to store all this extra gas, since this government authorised the closure of our main storage facility?  Plus, as you say, cold was favoured in December anyway.

I use the term ‘cold snap’ to describe a few days.  When it gets towards a week and more it’s definitely not a ‘cold snap’. 

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Part of email I received from Northern Powergrid the other day
"Please read: Important advice about emergency power cuts
National Grid ESO has indicated that Emergency Power Cuts are unlikely to happen this winter, however, ongoing reports in the news have led to some customers contacting us as they are unsure or concerned what this might mean for them."

No email but a leaflet that was dropped through the letterbox last week.



The gist is a remote prospect of power cuts this winter. Sort of 'move along now and don't panic nothing really to see but we’re just trying to cover ourselves.' As my friend in the industry says, the Govt. doesn't want us to talk about the decade of mismanagement on their watch. In his opinion it's not a 'remote' likelihood of power cuts either but rather when.

Oh and from another thread Brian posted this little skit which we've all had to pay for. Looks cheap and tacky which is a blessing I suppose.

And that’s as far as it goes (for now) when it comes to this Govt. discussing the knife edge we’re on.
Bloody Elves it is then Mr Shapps who are the culprits for the current mess we're in..

Nothing to do with Ministers who should be proactive and forward thinking but now find themselves staring over the abyss of their own making.
 

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Agreed. I had one of those ‘you must be fcuk*** joking’ thoughts when I heard that.   Where exactly were we going to store all this extra gas, since this government authorised the closure of our main storage facility?  Plus, as you say, cold was favoured in December anyway.

I use the term ‘cold snap’ to describe a few days.  When it gets towards a week and more it’s definitely not a ‘cold snap’. 

That's my view too. A 'snap' is about three days and a 'spell'  a week or more. 

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Well I think a snap = 1 or 2 days, a spell = a week, a period = more than a week.

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BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

• Much milder
• Wet and Windy
• Risk of local flooding
• Unsettled into Christmas

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64014198 

BBC Weather for the Week Ahead

• Much milder
• Wet and Windy
• Risk of local flooding
• Unsettled into Christmas

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/64014198 

Yep, this pretty much sums up what lies ahead for 95% of the UK.
Absolutely awful weather in the run up, and probably beyond Christmas. 

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The week ahead forecast just highlighted the uncertainty over the Christmas period and risk of the cold air in the north moving south. I suspect there is still a while before there is any confidence re. next weekend’s weather.

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I have seen worse Met updates:


Confidence is unusually low for the Christmas weekend; a north/south divide with cold air, wintry showers and increased risk of more significant snow in the north, and milder conditions with rain and showers in the south, is likely, but where the boundary will be is very uncertain. Eventually, as we head towards the New Year, the colder conditions are more likely to come to dominate, with wintry showers in the north and potential for a more settled spell to develop. This would bring below average temperatures, potential for areas of freezing fog with widespread overnight frosts, and very low temperatures given any snow cover. Towards the end of the period, there are signs of a trend towards more changeable weather, with an upturn in temperatures.

😁

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