The MetO day 16-30 updates are suggesting an increasing possibility of more settled weather arriving sometime towards the middle of August. That really would be sod's law were it to happen that way, as the Scottish schools will be returning from their summer break around that time. Would just be like it if the weather through the duration of the holiday was rubbish, but was then better afterwards having also been preceded by glorious weather!

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The MetO day 16-30 updates are suggesting an increasing possibility of more settled weather arriving sometime towards the middle of August. That really would be sod's law were it to happen that way, as the Scottish school will be returning from their summer break around that time. Would just be like it if the weather through the duration of the holiday was rubbish, but was then better afterwards having also been preceded by glorious weather!

Wouldn't be the first time in the recent years. Been a similar story here a couple of times, too.

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BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Unsettled into early August then turning drier

Saturday 22 July to – Sunday 30 July
Occasionally wet and windy

Monday 31 July to – Sunday 6 August
A chance of becoming drier later

Monday 7 August to – Sunday 20 August
A drier trend continues through mid-August

Further ahead
The new run of models might allow us to narrow down the time frame for the expected change to drier weather by mid-August.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

Chris Packham's 'Earth' is about a super-ice age tonight. 

I guess similar to what some on here (including me!) would like to see each December 

🤣
 

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Possibly the most concerning headline that I've read in my lifetime. 
Let's hope that they are wrong as the consequences for the UK and indeed the World of an Amoc shutdown are nothing short of catastrophic. 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/25/gulf-stream-could-collapse-as-early-as-2025-study-suggests?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other 

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BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Unsettled into early August, then turning drier

Wednesday 26 July to – Sunday 30 July
Remaining changeable but not as cool

Monday 31 July to – Sunday 6 August
Wet at first, then more showery

Monday 7 August to – Sunday 20 August
A drier trend through mid-August

Further ahead
We will see if the new models and atmospheric trends continue to point towards August becoming drier, and we will take a glimpse towards the end of the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Unsettled into early August, then turning drier

Wednesday 26 July to – Sunday 30 July
Remaining changeable but not as cool

Monday 31 July to – Sunday 6 August
Wet at first, then more showery

Monday 7 August to – Sunday 20 August
A drier trend through mid-August

Further ahead
We will see if the new models and atmospheric trends continue to point towards August becoming drier, and we will take a glimpse towards the end of the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

The most optimistic in a while.
 

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No doubt the weather will improve in mid-August to coincide with the return of Scottish schools. In the same way it went downhill at the start of July when the schools broke up. 

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Gulf Stream could collapse by 2025 says new report. Mind you it says between 2025 and 2095 so i think this may be another one of those click bait articles of which we are all becoming overly familiar by now.

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No doubt the weather will improve in mid-August to coincide with the return of Scottish schools. In the same way it went downhill at the start of July when the schools broke up. 

If not, early/mid September to coincide with the return of English schools (as it did do in 1985). We'll see what the weather 'choses'. 😊

40C summers will be normal in UK, says Met Office

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66304220 

40C summers will be normal in UK, says Met Office

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66304220 

Given they mean it as a warning, their timing is rubbish!

As we suffer under another relentless deluge in what has turned into a truly abysmal summer for many (away from the unicorn-blessed SE), I reckon a lot of people will be thinking "actually, I'd swap this swampy shitfest for last summer in a heartbeat"

 

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BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Potentially drier by mid-August

Wednesday 2 August to – Sunday 6 August
Unsettled and relatively cool

Monday 7 August to – Sunday 13 August
Changeable but drier after midweek

Monday 14 August to – Sunday 27 August
Drier south and east, wetter north and west

Further ahead
There should be more insight into the chances of a drier trend, and new models will take us into early September.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

Storm Antoni named by the UK met for tomorrow with unseasonably strong winds and heavy rain

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-08-05&id=2f3d2239-3bfa-4aee-a1cf-a9e050e00b4d 

Storm Antoni named by the UK met for tomorrow with unseasonably strong winds and heavy rain

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-08-05&id=2f3d2239-3bfa-4aee-a1cf-a9e050e00b4d 

That of course, also sets a new record for the latest ever date on which the first named storm of any season under our own joint British/Irish/Dutch system has actually been named.

In fact, given that we will soon be getting another list of names for the next new season, you really couldn't get much later than but even with that, I still wouldn't be surprised in any way if this wasn't the last named storm of this season given how this summer has gone so far.
 

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That of course, also sets a new record for the latest ever date on which the first named storm of any season under our own joint British/Irish/Dutch system has actually been named.

In fact, given that we will soon be getting another list of names for the next new season, you really couldn't get much later than but even with that, I still wouldn't be surprised in any way if this wasn't the last named storm of this season given how this summer has gone so far.
 

It's a bit misleading now though as many storms are named by one of the other met agencies first and we in the UK then just take on their name for that one. E.g. last week's storm was Patricia named by the French Met Agency

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That of course, also sets a new record for the latest ever date on which the first named storm of any season under our own joint British/Irish/Dutch system has actually been named.

In fact, given that we will soon be getting another list of names for the next new season, you really couldn't get much later than but even with that, I still wouldn't be surprised in any way if this wasn't the last named storm of this season given how this summer has gone so far.
 

It's interestingly also the first British named storm of the 2022/23 season. 

I also wondered whether Storm Gemma in 2020 might've pipped this one for latest named. Gemma was 24th August 

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It's a bit misleading now though as many storms are named by one of the other met agencies first and we in the UK then just take on their name for that one. E.g. last week's storm was Patricia named by the French Met Agency

That's why I believe that there should be a single European system for naming these storms rather than the rather disjointed system which is in place for that just now with different parts of Europe having their own different system.
 

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It's interestingly also the first British named storm of the 2022/23 season. 

... which we're very nearly at the end of now.

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Storm Antoni named by the UK met for tomorrow with unseasonably strong winds and heavy rain

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-08-05&id=2f3d2239-3bfa-4aee-a1cf-a9e050e00b4d 

For anyone who doesn’t care about tomorrows low, because it’s ‘bog standard and happens all year around’, it could be one of those summer storms to remember. Especially for anyone camping in the South/South West. And I agree different agencies giving different names doesn't help clarity. It’s not just Europe, Asia does the same with its storms too.
Nick

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