BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Dry and warm periods are likely in September

Saturday 2 September to – Sunday 10 September
Mostly dry and warm then unsettled later.

Monday 11 September to – Sunday 17 September
Becoming more settled again.

Monday 18 September to – Sunday 1 October
Potentially more unsettled by late September.

Further ahead

There might be clearer signs in the updated models of the pattern shifting round later in September, although the tropical Atlantic is still likely to have a say in the outcome.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

The UKHSA have issued an amber heatwave alert for all areas of England except North East England
 
The warning is valid until 9pm on Sunday

Quite a collection of showers beginning to show up on charts from Sunday onwards. Most models favour SW Scotland for some rain, but the Meto and MeteoGroup (BBC) predicting something thundery in the SE

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Don't know if it's been on before (I suspect it was made before 2022), but C5 had one of their light-hearted documentaries on earlier, this about the 1976 heatwave/drought.

I quite enjoyed it!

I was only 4 & half that summer, but have a number of memories. One thing that did strike me was how people coped in cars without aircon.

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I was only 4 & half that summer, but have a number of memories. One thing that did strike me was how people coped in cars without aircon.

That was the summer that I spent, from the Whit halfterm onwards, weekend commuting between Manchester and Kent, having not managed to synchronise change of job with sale of house. I assure you that whatever memories you may have of Lancashire at that time, the conditions were basically pretty normal compared to what Kent was experiencing.

The then new rolling stock on British Rail was air-conditioned which was fine until it broke down, as happened on one occasion, and there were no windows that could be opened for a breeze.

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I see the Met Office site has a new and improved daily weather extremes page, with all the regions on one page:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/observations/weather-extremes 

It's hidden away under the "Climate" section of their menu, but at least there is actually a link to it now - for a long time the only way to get the last 24 hours extremes was via a page on the old version of their site, with no link from their homepage!

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I see the Met Office site has a new and improved daily weather extremes page, with all the regions on one page:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/observations/weather-extremes 

It's hidden away under the "Climate" section of their menu, but at least there is actually a link to it now - for a long time the only way to get the last 24 hours extremes was via a page on the old version of their site, with no link from their homepage!

I did say in the current conditions thread during yesterday that we were doing very well for sunshine here in Edinburgh despite the unsettled conditions at the time, and it turns out that from the information in the above link, Edinburgh Gogarbank was actually the sunniest place in the whole of the UK during yesterday according to the Met Office.

I know that's slightly off topic for this particular thread, but it's good that we can now get that information from the Met Office website once again.
 

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I see the Met Office site has a new and improved daily weather extremes page, with all the regions on one page:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/observations/weather-extremes 

It's hidden away under the "Climate" section of their menu, but at least there is actually a link to it now - for a long time the only way to get the last 24 hours extremes was via a page on the old version of their site, with no link from their homepage!

I'll bookmark that. Not found it for ages. Cheers. 👍

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Drier by early October but wet again by mid-month

Saturday 23 September to – Sunday 1 October
Often wet and windy

Monday 2 October to – Sunday 8 October
Drier for a while, mainly in the south and east

Monday 9 October to – Sunday 22 October
Turning wetter again by mid-October

Further ahead
When we next look at the models, we'll hope that there is better agreement on October's happenings; but early to mid-autumn is a notoriously difficult period for model guidance.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

Mini heatwave predicted in October after Storm Agnes brings 'danger to life' warning this week

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-weather-after-storm-agnes-hopes-of-a-mini-heatwave-in-october-still-alive-as-met-office-forecasts-above-average-temperatures-12970210 

I see the Met Office site has a new and improved daily weather extremes page, with all the regions on one page:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/observations/weather-extremes 

It's hidden away under the "Climate" section of their menu, but at least there is actually a link to it now - for a long time the only way to get the last 24 hours extremes was via a page on the old version of their site, with no link from their homepage!

Good to see it back, however... interesting to note the detail at the bottom of the page about the times.

The highest max and min temps are between 09:00 and 21:00 on the date shown, the lowest min between 21:00 and 09:00

Seems very against the norm for recording purposes e.g. a daily max at 21:01 during a day wouldn't count - strange.

 

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Good to see it back, however... interesting to note the detail at the bottom of the page about the times.

The highest max and min temps are between 09:00 and 21:00 on the date shown, the lowest min between 21:00 and 09:00

Seems very against the norm for recording purposes e.g. a daily max at 21:01 during a day wouldn't count - strange.

 

I was thinking the same thing.

I was always led to believe that the official Met Office observation day always ran for 24 hours from 09:00 UTC on one morning to 09:00 UTC on the next day with the official observation date always being the date on the first of those points in time.

That is something which they always rigidly stick to when it comes to any sort of temperature records and so on, and that makes very strange that they are now going completely against that on their daily extremes page.
 

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Good to see it back, however... interesting to note the detail at the bottom of the page about the times.

The highest max and min temps are between 09:00 and 21:00 on the date shown, the lowest min between 21:00 and 09:00

Seems very against the norm for recording purposes e.g. a daily max at 21:01 during a day wouldn't count - strange.

 

Probably set this early to be in time for the next day's papers. 

While it's possible that a warm front might arrive on the dot of 2100 and create a maximum, that must surely be a rare event?

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Probably set this early to be in time for the next day's papers. 

While it's possible that a warm front might arrive on the dot of 2100 and create a maximum, that must surely be a rare event?

Of course very true, probably count them or one or maybe two hands a year... rightly or wrongly I just think when you have all the data, and a reasonable supercomputer within easy access, it's a bit lazy, but no doubt there's  reason behind it.

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Probably set this early to be in time for the next day's papers. 

While it's possible that a warm front might arrive on the dot of 2100 and create a maximum, that must surely be a rare event?

The same would apply to a cold front sweeping through just after 9am, of course.    I agree that it seems odd not to be using the full 24 hours.

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It's been warm in France.
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230929-several-european-countries-record-hottest-september-temperatures-ever 
 

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‘Beast from the East’ and ‘Months of Snow’ now appearing on usual media outlets…  maybe they’ll be right one year! 

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A reasonably mild end to autumn looks to be on the cards looking at the long range forecast

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk 

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary

Mostly unsettled but mild for the time of year

Saturday 11 November to – Sunday 19 November
Changeable conditions will continue

Monday 20 November to – Sunday 26 November
Wet and occasionally windy

Monday 27 November to – Sunday 10 December
Unsettled but drier at times in the south and east

Further ahead

In the next outlook, we will continue to look out for any signs that the unsettled and mild weather pattern will break. Could we see anything drier or colder developing? At the moment, that is not looking probable.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

Tomasz Schaff was doing the "Weather For The Week Ahead" on BBC1 at lunchtime today but unusually he only showed a forecast up till Wednesday. Looking at the charts on the internet for Thursday in particular it looks to me as though this could be another stormy one and perhaps the shorter BBC horizon is because there is still too much uncertainty as to whether who (if anyone) is going to cop it this time in what looks like yet another "named storm" later in the week


 

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