Gavin D
18 November 2023 10:27:31
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Unsettled but a drier period by early December

Saturday 18 November to – Sunday 26 November
Wet and windy at times. Chillier late in the week

Monday 27 November to – Saturday 2 December
Wet and windy at first then trending drier

Sunday 3 December to – Sunday 17 December
Becoming unsettled again

Further ahead
We will see next time if high pressure still looks likely to build by early December, where it will most likely align and if there is any better idea of how soon it will break down.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
dagspot
19 November 2023 21:59:47
Bettsy mild ramper must be on to something.. ‘maybe a bit extreme’, whats that you say Darren, cold, snow…? 
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gavin D
22 November 2023 16:45:15
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Turning colder for a time. Unsettled in December

Wednesday 22 November to – Sunday 26 November
Turning colder over the weekend

Monday 27 November to – Sunday 3 December
Drier in the south and west. Cool

Monday 4 December to – Sunday 17 December
Becoming more unsettled again

Further ahead

December often promises some rather unpredictable and testing weather conditions to forecast. Keeping up with the latest guidance and identifying cold or stormy spells will be our main priority.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Whiteout
23 November 2023 15:43:22
Wow, quite an upgrade from the Met:

Colder than average conditions are most likely overall, as chances of some wintry showers, or even more general snow towards the turn of the month, are increasing. Cloud and rain is likely to be clearing southeastern England early on, followed by a period of widely colder, drier and brighter weather and the return of overnight frosts. Scattered showers along with an overnight ice risk may affect some coastal areas of northern and eastern Scotland, and eastern England at times, which could turn increasingly wintry over hills in the north. These conditions could then persist, particularly in the north, but there is an increasing chance of areas of cloud, rain and/or snow, perhaps with strong winds too, spreading north across at least southern areas from later next week.

😎
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
ballamar
23 November 2023 16:17:27
GFS op looks like it’s overdoing the low 
Gavin D
25 November 2023 15:43:23
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Cold until early December, then turning milder

Saturday 25 November to – Sunday 3 December
Chilly and changeable. Wintry in places

Monday 4 December to – Sunday 10 December
Colder and unsettled then slightly milder

Monday 11 December to – Sunday 24 December
Milder and wetter than average

Further ahead

Will the weather models keep pointing towards milder conditions in the run-up to Christmas?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
doctormog
26 November 2023 10:34:32
Interesting to see the BBC TV forecast summery for the week ahead has mentioned the risk of a “little bit of sleet or slow over the highest ground largely in the north”.  I guess they are discounting their own models and automated forecasts which show sleet of snow to moderately low levels in much of the north later in the week? I wonder which charts show sleet or snow restricted to the highest ground in the north, being generous I would say over 2000ft, although of course the highest ground is over 4000 feet. It seems very at odds with almost all of the actual model output. I would say many areas in northern parts with relatively low altitude are at risk of seeing at least some wintry precipitation in the coming week.

That BBC forecast also seems at odds with the Met Office forecast which states, for this region:

”Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Staying cold with bright spells, scattered showers and mostly light winds. The showers will turn increasingly wintry, even to lower levels.”

Edit: Amusingly at the same time as that was being said the graphic displayed on the screen showed the sleet showers symbol for Edinburgh for Thursday and Friday.
dagspot
26 November 2023 14:30:46
SKL BBC  ‘next week, showers mostly of rain away from the far North where could be a touch wintery’
Nothing to write home about with that lot
Neilston 600ft ASL
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 November 2023 14:44:23
Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 

BBC forecasts sleet for here at some point on almost every day from Tuesday night to the following Monday (rain during the day on Thursday)

 


Elizabeth Rizzini at1255 on BBC4 chanced her arm and said there was a possibility of snow on Thursday, even for low ground in the S
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
26 November 2023 15:13:44
Originally Posted by: DEW 

Elizabeth Rizzini at1255 on BBC4 chanced her arm and said there was a possibility of snow on Thursday, even for low ground in the S



I wonder what prompted the change from only a few hours earlier. The models don’t look as if they changed significantly.
scillydave
26 November 2023 16:00:58
Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I wonder what prompted the change from only a few hours earlier. The models don’t look as if they changed significantly.



I think the Icon might have something to say about that!
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
scillydave
26 November 2023 16:03:25
Oh and the Met Office...
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/cold-spells-to-come 
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
AlvinMeister
26 November 2023 18:00:25
Just a note that "The Year the Thames Flooded" on Channel 5 tonight is likely to be pulled as it's emerged a contributing historian is allegedly a Neo Nazi.

Fantastic vetting by ITN!
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
26 November 2023 19:56:32
Originally Posted by: AlvinMeister 

Just a note that "The Year the Thames Flooded" on Channel 5 tonight is likely to be pulled as it's emerged a contributing historian is allegedly a Neo Nazi.

Fantastic vetting by ITN!



Online guide showing 'Beast from the East', the freeze of 2018 now scheduled.

(Could this be a repeat? It rings a bell)
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
doctormog
26 November 2023 21:12:26
Originally Posted by: DEW 

Online guide showing 'Beast from the East', the freeze of 2018 now scheduled.

(Could this be a repeat? It rings a bell)



I can’t watch a program about the Best from the East without feeling totally underwhelmed. The cold spells last winter here had more snow and lower maxima and minima than anything seen in the “Beast”.
idj20
27 November 2023 21:12:01
Originally Posted by: doctormog 

I can’t watch a program about the Best from the East without feeling totally underwhelmed. The cold spells last winter here had more snow and lower maxima and minima than anything seen in the “Beast”.



Even that totally bypassed here at Folkestone with a spell of freezing drizzle in the morning that ended with a near spring-like afternoon while North and West Kent had up to a foot of snow. That was probably the most frustrating weather event I've ever experienced and I'm sure Gusty would agree with me. 
Folkestone Harbour. 
Martybhoy
28 November 2023 16:36:10
Wee Sean reckons we are due some proper cold 🥶 

https://news.stv.tv/scotland/sean-batty-could-snow-and-ice-in-scotland-see-a-repeat-of-2010s-big-freeze 
200m above sea level
Rural East Ayrshire
Near to the village of Sorn
dagspot
28 November 2023 19:20:47
and tattoo hair Beresford on ITV going for ‘turning milder again next week’
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gavin D
29 November 2023 12:48:18
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Cold for a while then milder by mid-December

Wednesday 29 November to – Sunday 3 December
Cold and occasionally wintry

Monday 4 December to – Sunday 10 December
Cold and unsettled then potentially milder later

Monday 11 December to – Sunday 24 December
Becoming mild, wet and windy

Further ahead

Although the cold weather looks sure to hang on for at least a week, there is a lot less certainty in an anticipated change to milder weather. The next update might shed more light on when this could happen. We will also peek towards the end of 2023.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Whiteout
29 November 2023 13:22:20
Warning out for the SW 😍 Hoping to see at least a covering by this time tomorrow 🤞

Spells of snow may develop over hills, especially parts of Bodmin Moor, Dartmoor, Blackdown Hills and Exmoor during the early hours of Thursday before petering out later in the day. The highest parts of Dartmoor and perhaps Bodmin Moor may see 5-10cm of snow with some drifting in strong easterly winds. 
Home/Work - Dartmoor
240m/785 ft asl

Winter 22/23:

Snow falling days - 3
Snow lying days - 3
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