Think they may have missed the important week lol. 

As I write though, it has been absolutely pouring down with rain here in Edinburgh for most of today's daylight hours and it would appear that Storm Elin has been responsible for that.

Even after that clears away, another system is then expected to very quickly take its place tommorow, and it looks as though it is that next system which is Storm Fergus.

All of this now means that we will now have had six named storms under own joint UK/Ireland/Netherlands naming system since the start of this season which is still less than three month ago.

Furthermore, I don't recall any other occasion in the past when we have had two named storms in the same weekend nd so, this shows just how unsettled our weather has now become.

• Rain at times
• Blustery
• Drier end of the week

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001tccz/weather-for-the-week-ahead-10122023 

"It now looks probable that there will be at least one short-lived colder interlude next week, with a period of north or northwesterly winds that could bring some snow and ice, especially in the north."

Next week

• Spells of rain
• Often windy
• A little colder for a time
• Wintry showers on hills

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67687069 

Summary

Drier for a while next week, then mild and rainy

Wednesday 13 December to – Sunday 17 December

Drier in the south and east later

Monday 18 December to – Sunday 24 December

Changeable and not too cold

Monday 25 December to – Sunday 7 January

Most probably wet and windy at times

Further ahead

We will see if the models become more consistent concerning the pattern between Christmas and New Year, and if there are any more signs of anything colder developing in early January.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

"At this stage, there is very little sign of any widespread or severe cold and wintry weather.”

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/mild-week-before-christmas 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk 

Before that sentence it does also say, “Later next week and the days running up to Christmas there are some suggestions that the jet stream will drift further south, allowing conditions to turn more widely unsettled. There is also a chance of winds switching to more of a northwesterly direction, allowing conditions to become a little colder, with a risk of some wintry showers developing in the north.”

Which is more or less what we’re seeing in the model output.

Must know something others don’t! 

Not really, as it ties in with what the models show. The question is though will it be for northern hills or something more extensive? 

Well, I think you’d have to say that the prediction is at the outer edges of the model output we can see. Certainly he/they must be discounting the ECM evolution, since that keeps the pattern pretty flat out to Xmas Day; even on the ensemble mean (which brings the cooler air further south), the 0c isotherm never leaves the far south-west and the north of Scotland only gets down to -6c.

There seems to be a lot of uncertainty but the possibility of showers turning wintry, at least for northern parts, seems reasona high. When, how widespread, at what elevation, any settling snow etc. all remain to be seen.

At this range however it could still end up milder than average or very wintry (or neither!)

Summary

Often wet and windy. Chillier by mid-January

Saturday 16 December to – Sunday 24 December

Changeable. Chillier after midweek

Monday 25 December to – Sunday 31 December

Wet and windy at times. Mostly mild

Monday 1 January to – Sunday 14 January

Potentially chillier before mid-January

Further ahead

We will look at the prospects for the New Year again, and see whether or not any chillier conditions still look likely.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

Next week

• More rain at times
• Turning chiller
• Uncertainty later

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001tl0f/weather-for-the-week-ahead-17122023 

Interesting that the forecast ends with a snowflake symbol for Edinburgh for Christmas Day. 

Summary

Often wet and windy. Chillier by mid-January

Wednesday 20 December to – Sunday 24 December

Chillier and changeable

Thursday 25 January to – Wednesday 31 January

Wet and windy at times. Mostly milder

Monday 1 January to – Sunday 14 January

Wet and windy then turning a bit colder

Further ahead

When we revisit the forecast we will see if any switch to colder conditions still looks possible during January.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

In a way, it's a shame that the Dutch didn't sneak in there to name it first as that would have brought it within our own storm naming system which the Met Office and Met Eireann are part of, thereby resulting in that system being named as Storm Gerrit which is the next name on that list.

This has therefore once again, shown the disjointed and fragmented nature of these storm naming systems which once again, has shown that there should be a single storm naming system which covers the whole of Europe.

Completely agree with this. 

Two days later could have been nice!

A wee bit further south would also have been nice so that locations such as Edinburgh and the Borders could also have been included in that.

That always seems to be the way though when it comes to "interesting" weather because it is usually always either too far north (so that it's just the west and north of Scotland which gets it), or too far south (resulting in England getting all of the interesting weather while we miss out on that here in Edinburgh).

This means that where I am, I am hardly ever within the actual firing line of that more interesting which is why our weather is usually always boring and uninteresting compared to elsewhere as a result.

"Through January conditions may turn less unsettled as high pressure has more influence. A possible change in weather patterns also increasing the chance of more prolonged spells of colder weather for all areas by mid-January."

It's interesting that this change in wording coincides with the recent change in the ECM 42-dayer showing a much weaker stratospheric vortex early next year...

What percentage of the charts from 7-10 days ago correspond to what will be on xmas day?