theweatheroutlook

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Ally Pally Snowman
09 December 2023 13:02:45

BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Mild and rainy, then more seasonal and changeable

Saturday 9 December to – Sunday 17 December
Mild and wet, then colder and drier from midweek

Monday 18 December to – Sunday 24 December
Very uncertain but probably drier

Monday 1 January to – Sunday 14 January
Most probably becoming mild and wet

Further ahead

The pressing concern in the next update will be to see whether models have better agreement regarding developments during the week before Christmas.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



Think they may have missed the important week lol. 
Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
+1
johncs2016
09 December 2023 15:35:35
I've just read that not one, but two named storms (Storm Elin and Storm Fergus) have now just been officially named by Met Eireann. With these storms coming so close to each other, it's dificult to probably gauge which is which out of those two.

As I write though, it has been absolutely pouring down with rain here in Edinburgh for most of today's daylight hours and it would appear that Storm Elin has been responsible for that.

Even after that clears away, another system is then expected to very quickly take its place tommorow, and it looks as though it is that next system which is Storm Fergus.

All of this now means that we will now have had six named storms under own joint UK/Ireland/Netherlands naming system since the start of this season which is still less than three month ago.

Furthermore, I don't recall any other occasion in the past when we have had two named storms in the same weekend nd so, this shows just how unsettled our weather has now become.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Gavin D
10 December 2023 13:36:18
BBC weather for the week ahead
  • Rain at times
  • Blustery
  • Drier end of the week


https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001tccz/weather-for-the-week-ahead-10122023 
dagspot
10 December 2023 18:12:49
Fawksie ‘cold ramper’ suggesting a westward drift of High Pressure ‘turning colder in run up to xmas’ on Countryfile…  get him
Neilston 600ft ASL
Gavin D
12 December 2023 15:03:37
Met office seeing signs of something colder near Christmas

"It now looks probable that there will be at least one short-lived colder interlude next week, with a period of north or northwesterly winds that could bring some snow and ice, especially in the north."
+1
Gavin D
12 December 2023 19:36:13
BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week
  • Spells of rain
  • Often windy
  • A little colder for a time
  • Wintry showers on hills


https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/av/67687069 
Gavin D
13 December 2023 10:47:42
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Drier for a while next week, then mild and rainy

Wednesday 13 December to – Sunday 17 December
Drier in the south and east later

Monday 18 December to – Sunday 24 December
Changeable and not too cold

Monday 25 December to – Sunday 7 January
Most probably wet and windy at times

Further ahead

We will see if the models become more consistent concerning the pattern between Christmas and New Year, and if there are any more signs of anything colder developing in early January.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Gavin D
13 December 2023 14:21:29
From the met office blog issued today for later next week and leading up to Christmas.

"At this stage, there is very little sign of any widespread or severe cold and wintry weather.”

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/mild-week-before-christmas 
Gavin D
13 December 2023 15:41:37
The chance of a more prolonged spell of cold weather is pushed back to mid-January now.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk 
Gandalf The White
13 December 2023 16:38:41

From the met office blog issued today for later next week and leading up to Christmas.

"At this stage, there is very little sign of any widespread or severe cold and wintry weather.”

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2023/mild-week-before-christmas 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



Before that sentence it does also say, “Later next week and the days running up to Christmas there are some suggestions that the jet stream will drift further south, allowing conditions to turn more widely unsettled. There is also a chance of winds switching to more of a northwesterly direction, allowing conditions to become a little colder, with a risk of some wintry showers developing in the north.”

Which is more or less what we’re seeing in the model output.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
13 December 2023 17:10:46
Reading between the lines it ties in with the model output which shows cold and wintry weather next week. It is probably not going to be across the entire country or severe cold but it does look like being possibly being wintry across a swathe of the country at some point around the 21st to 23rd and  a White Christmas is a realistic possibility for some favoured parts. Semantics and caveats are the key to the Met Office comments.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
dagspot
15 December 2023 18:35:15
Fawksie ‘Turning much colder by end of next week with showers turning wintery’ 
Must know something others don’t! 
Neilston 600ft ASL
doctormog
15 December 2023 18:42:43

Fawksie ‘Turning much colder by end of next week with showers turning wintery’ 
Must know something others don’t! 

Originally Posted by: dagspot 



Not really, as it ties in with what the models show. The question is though will it be for northern hills or something more extensive? 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gandalf The White
15 December 2023 20:03:13

Not really, as it ties in with what the models show. The question is though will it be for northern hills or something more extensive? 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Well, I think you’d have to say that the prediction is at the outer edges of the model output we can see. Certainly he/they must be discounting the ECM evolution, since that keeps the pattern pretty flat out to Xmas Day; even on the ensemble mean (which brings the cooler air further south), the 0c isotherm never leaves the far south-west and the north of Scotland only gets down to -6c.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


doctormog
15 December 2023 20:23:26
Well the showers would definitely be turning wintry in the north based on the ECM output but other output is actually more encouraging if you want wintry conditions.  Here is the (probably overdoing i) snow depth chart for day ten of the 12z ECM run: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/united-kingdom/snow-depth/20231225-1200z.html 

There seems to be a lot of uncertainty but the possibility of showers turning wintry, at least for northern parts, seems reasona high. When, how widespread, at what elevation, any settling snow etc. all remain to be seen.

At this range however it could still end up milder than average or very wintry (or neither!)
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gavin D
16 December 2023 11:28:11
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Often wet and windy. Chillier by mid-January

Saturday 16 December to – Sunday 24 December
Changeable. Chillier after midweek

Monday 25 December to – Sunday 31 December
Wet and windy at times. Mostly mild

Monday 1 January to – Sunday 14 January
Potentially chillier before mid-January

Further ahead
We will look at the prospects for the New Year again, and see whether or not any chillier conditions still look likely.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Gavin D
17 December 2023 13:50:59
BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week
  • More rain at times
  • Turning chiller
  • Uncertainty later


https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001tl0f/weather-for-the-week-ahead-17122023 
doctormog
17 December 2023 14:29:03

BBC weather for the week ahead

Next week

  • More rain at times
  • Turning chiller
  • Uncertainty later


https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001tl0f/weather-for-the-week-ahead-17122023 

Originally Posted by: Gavin D 



Interesting that the forecast ends with a snowflake symbol for Edinburgh for Christmas Day. 
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gavin D
20 December 2023 12:54:49
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Often wet and windy. Chillier by mid-January

Wednesday 20 December to – Sunday 24 December
Chillier and changeable

Thursday 25 January to – Wednesday 31 January
Wet and windy at times. Mostly milder

Monday 1 January to – Sunday 14 January
Wet and windy then turning a bit colder

Further ahead
When we revisit the forecast we will see if any switch to colder conditions still looks possible during January.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
johncs2016
20 December 2023 15:32:51
I see that the low pressure system which is forecast to bring tomorrow's very strong winds has been officially named as Storm Pia by the Danish Met Service, presumably due to the likely effects of that over in Denmark.

In a way, it's a shame that the Dutch didn't sneak in there to name it first as that would have brought it within our own storm naming system which the Met Office and Met Eireann are part of, thereby resulting in that system being named as Storm Gerrit which is the next name on that list.

This has therefore once again, shown the disjointed and fragmented nature of these storm naming systems which once again, has shown that there should be a single storm naming system which covers the whole of Europe.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
+1
Brian Gaze
20 December 2023 15:40:52

I see that the low pressure system which is forecast to bring tomorrow's very strong winds has been officially named as Storm Pia by the Danish Met Service, presumably due to the likely effects of that over in Denmark.

In a way, it's a shame that the Dutch didn't sneak in there to name it first as that would have brought it within our own storm naming system which the Met Office and Met Eireann are part of, thereby resulting in that system being named as Storm Gerrit which is the next name on that list.

This has therefore once again, shown the disjointed and fragmented nature of these storm naming systems which once again, has shown that there should be a single storm naming system which covers the whole of Europe.
 

Originally Posted by: johncs2016 



Completely agree with this. 
Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
+1
doctormog
21 December 2023 12:25:59
I see that there is now a snow and ice warning out for N Scotland for tomorrow night for 2-5cm of snow on low ground and 10-15cm mostly above 200m.

Two days later could have been nice!
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
johncs2016
21 December 2023 13:44:21

I see that there is now a snow and ice warning out for N Scotland for tomorrow night for 2-5cm of snow on low ground and 10-15cm mostly above 200m.

Two days later could have been nice!

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



A wee bit further south would also have been nice so that locations such as Edinburgh and the Borders could also have been included in that.

That always seems to be the way though when it comes to "interesting" weather because it is usually always either too far north (so that it's just the west and north of Scotland which gets it), or too far south (resulting in England getting all of the interesting weather while we miss out on that here in Edinburgh).

This means that where I am, I am hardly ever within the actual firing line of that more interesting which is why our weather is usually always boring and uninteresting compared to elsewhere as a result.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Retron
22 December 2023 17:48:44
Interesting - the MetO long-range forecast has, for the past few days, had something along the lines of "there's a low risk of a cold spell as we move into mid-January". Today's update instead says this:

"Through January conditions may turn less unsettled as high pressure has more influence. A possible change in weather patterns also increasing the chance of more prolonged spells of colder weather for all areas by mid-January."

It's interesting that this change in wording coincides with the recent change in the ECM 42-dayer showing a much weaker stratospheric vortex early next year...
Leysdown, north Kent
+2
dagspot
22 December 2023 22:06:44
they cant even get 7 days head correct never mind 42.  Im becoming more appreciative that any model watching out beyond 5 days is inaccurate. A vague whiff maybe and too many variables to be anything more.
What percentage of the charts from 7-10 days ago correspond to what will be on xmas day?
Neilston 600ft ASL

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