theweatheroutlook

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scillydave
04 August 2023 17:50:45

For anyone who doesn’t care about tomorrows low, because it’s ‘bog standard and happens all year around’, it could be one of those summer storms to remember. Especially for anyone camping in the South/South West. And I agree different agencies giving different names doesn't help clarity. It’s not just Europe, Asia does the same with its storms too.
Nick

Originally Posted by: NMA 



Absolutely - it's looking fairly notable for the North Somerset coast. Watchet, for example, has a peak mean wind speed of 42mph and top gusts of 57mph forecast. I wouldn't like to be camping there tomorrow!
 
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
scillydave
04 August 2023 20:43:41
Unsurprisingly there are Amber warnings out for tomorrow now. Could be a very rough day I think
 
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
scillydave
05 August 2023 08:51:13
Big downgrade in the forecast wind speed overnight - at least 10mph lower on average.
Might not seem much but it changes Storm Antoni from something really quite unusual to a more run of the mill, once every couple of years summer storms.
 
Currently living at roughly 65m asl North of Cowbridge in the Vale of Glamorgan.

Formerly of, Birdlip, highest village in the Cotswolds and snow heaven in winter; Hawkinge in Kent - roof of the South downs and Isles of Scilly, paradise in the UK.
doctormog
05 August 2023 09:03:26

Big downgrade in the forecast wind speed overnight - at least 10mph lower on average.
Might not seem much but it changes Storm Antoni from something really quite unusual to a more run of the mill, once every couple of years summer storms.
 

Originally Posted by: scillydave 



The very heavy rain in parts of E Scotland also seems to have been somewhat overlooked.

Edit: A warning has now been issued for the rainfall. I get the impression that the rainfall is a bit heavier and in a more populated area than was shown in most of the models’ output.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-08-05&id=922526e0-ebb2-4fe4-accc-111d0da59251  
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
+1
johncs2016
05 August 2023 10:18:38

The very heavy rain in parts of E Scotland also seems to have been somewhat overlooked.

Edit: A warning has now been issued for the rainfall. I get the impression that the rainfall is a bit heavier and in a more populated area than was shown in most of the models’ output.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-08-05&id=922526e0-ebb2-4fe4-accc-111d0da59251  

Originally Posted by: doctormog 



Despite all of the discussions which you and I were having yesterday on the summer moaning thread about the models showing a sea of rainfall right across the UK, today has actually been quite a nice day here in Edinburgh up until now.

It's a bit on the cool side and there was a brief passing shower earlier on this morning, but it's been dry apart from that with absolutely zero rainfall and the Sun is even shining here in Edinburgh as I write.

We are under the official yellow warning for rain which the Met Office have just issued, but you wouldn't think so going by how the weather actually is just now.

Looking at the latest rain rain radar map, I can see some rain developing to my east which could head in our direction, but there doesn't even appear to be too much to that at the moment and I still think that Edinburgh will escape most if not all of that bad weather, regardless of what certain models have been saying at times (even if any model output is more or less nailed in, this still doesn't necessarily mean that it will end up actually being correct in terms of what actually happens) and that was what I was thinking all along when I made those other comments yesterday on that other thread,
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
doctormog
05 August 2023 10:25:55
Interestingly none of the 06z model updates I have seen have shown rain here at all and we are at 8mm in the last hour or so. I know sometimes they don’t handle convective precipitation that well but they all seem to be off the mark today.
Aberdeen
Current conditions (personal WS) 
Gavin D
05 August 2023 19:23:49
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Drier by mid-August but wetter again later

Saturday 5 August to – Sunday 13 August
Changeable but drier from midweek

Monday 14 August to – Sunday 20 August
Turning wetter, especially in the north and west

Monday 21 August to – Sunday 3 September
Drier south and east, wetter north and west

Further ahead

Will the updated models show us any better chance of some dry weather in mid-August?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Gavin D
12 August 2023 11:30:10
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Changeable but relatively warm

Saturday 12 August to – Sunday 20 August
A drier period next week

Monday 21 August to – Sunday 27 August
Changeable but warm

Monday 28 August to – Sunday 10 September
Unsettled. Wetter in the north than the south

Further ahead

We will see if the updated longer-range models come into any better agreement on the pattern in late August and early September.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
johncs2016
13 August 2023 10:24:01
Whoever was responsible for writing this  article clearly needs to be reminded that it just hardly ever rains here in Edinburgh any more as the data from both Edinburgh Gogarbank and the botanic gardens in Edinburgh over the last few weeks has shown.
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
White Meadows
14 August 2023 21:20:42
Met office updates getting shabbier and shabbier these days. This one looks like it was written by someone needing the toilet on a train. Unacceptable for a government funded service.

“…Rather cloudy and at times humid conditions are likely to follow, some showers mainly the west, whilst the best of limited sunshine are likely to be in the east. Beyond this, fairly changeable conditions are most likely; a small change of a more settled weather developing early next week which could turn hot in the south, but otherwise a mixture of sunny spells and cloudy weather with showers is the most likely. Winds mostly light to moderate, although a change of stronger winds in the far north at times, Temperatures are most likely to be a little above average overall, especially at the start of the period.”

Grammatically and literally riddled with errors and live on the main website. 
 
+1
Crepuscular Ray
14 August 2023 21:31:09

Met office updates getting shabbier and shabbier these days. This one looks like it was written by someone needing the toilet on a train. Unacceptable for a government funded service.

“…Rather cloudy and at times humid conditions are likely to follow, some showers mainly the west, whilst the best of limited sunshine are likely to be in the east. Beyond this, fairly changeable conditions are most likely; a small change of a more settled weather developing early next week which could turn hot in the south, but otherwise a mixture of sunny spells and cloudy weather with showers is the most likely. Winds mostly light to moderate, although a change of stronger winds in the far north at times, Temperatures are most likely to be a little above average overall, especially at the start of the period.”

Grammatically and literally riddled with errors and live on the main website. 
 

Originally Posted by: White Meadows 



It's becoming an embarrassment. We've discussed it on here before a few times. The BBC long range  forecast is a literary masterpiece in comparison
Jerry
Edinburgh, in the frost hollow below Blackford Hill
+1
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
17 August 2023 15:53:34
Unusual weather warning for West Wales tomorrow. Strong Easterly winds are forecast. Presumably due to extra turbulence from the Welsh hills and mountains, they will be very gusty ....

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-08-18&id=f0cebd30-c5c9-44bb-a92d-8bf3b269e24e&details 
 
Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
johncs2016
18 August 2023 12:21:49
I've just read that the low pressure system which is due to bring some rain to here during the overnight period going into tomorrow morning, has been officially named as Storm Betty.

Unlike last week's storm (that was Storm Antoni) which was named by the UK Met Office, Storm Betty has officially been named by Met Eireann but this is nevertheless, the second such storm within a week or so to have been named under our own UK/Irish/Dutch system for doing that after such a long wait for Storm Antoni which was only the first such storm of the entire season, going all the way back to the beginning of last September.

This has been a bit like waiting for a bus because you will often wait ages for one, only for two of them to turn up at the same time.

With the new storm naming season being less than a month away, this means that all of this season's storms under our system will not only have occurred during this summer (which is just typical of course😡) regardless of what happens from now on, but will have all occurred during this month as well.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Gavin D
19 August 2023 10:12:26
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Changeable and becoming less warm

Saturday 19 August to – Sunday 27 August
Unsettled and a bit cooler after midweek

Monday 28 August to – Sunday 3 September
Potentially wetter in the south than the north

Monday 4 September to – Sunday 17 September
Becoming drier in the south, wetter in the north

Further ahead
The next round of long-range models might give us better clarity as we take another look at the end of summer and early autumn.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Gavin D
24 August 2023 09:03:07
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Changeable but possibly drier by mid-September

Wednesday 23 August to – Sunday 27 August
Unsettled and becoming cooler

Monday 28 August to – Sunday 3 September
Further wet periods

Monday 4 September to – Sunday 17 September
Unsettled but possibly drier mid-September

Further ahead
The updated longer-range models will allow us to look further into the second half of September and we will see if they have any stronger signals for some dry weather.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
cultman1
24 August 2023 10:08:30
Many of the online newspapers and websites are pointing to a warmer and more settled period after the first week of September. Is there any truth in this  or signs of this happening?
Gavin D
26 August 2023 12:04:36
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Changeable but probably drier by mid-September

Saturday 26 August to – Sunday 3 September
Changeable and slightly cooler than average

Monday 4 September to – Sunday 10 September
Unsettled but drier in the north than the south

Monday 11 September to – Sunday 24 September
Becoming drier overall

Further ahead
We will see if the longer-range models agree on a drier period through the middle of September and into the second half of the month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Matty H
27 August 2023 09:46:55
The short to medium term Met Office forecasts for here have often been absolute garbage this summer. Take tomorrow in isolation. Yesterdays Met Office text was for a dry day, increasing sunny spells and warmer. Today the forecast for tomorrow is rain and drizzle in the morning, becoming drier later. 
Yate, Nr Bristol
Say NO to misogyny 
https://human-rights-channel.coe.int/stop-sexism-en.html 
+1
johncs2016
01 September 2023 08:32:02
There may well have only been two named storms (by that, I mean storms named by the UK Met Office, Met Eirean or the Dutch Met Service as there has been the odd storm during that time which has been named by others, but which don't count in this regard) during the whole of the last storm season with both of those storms occurring within the month of August which has just passed.

However, a new list of storms has just been issued which will be valid as from today for the year ahead up until and including 31 August 2024. This list was released by the Met Office in a short live stream on their main YouTube channel and you can watch that back there.

The first name on that new list is Agnes and so the first storm from now on to be named by the Met Office, Met Eirean or the Dutch Met Service will officially be Storm Agnes. Given that the general outlook is more settled and high pressure dominated than of late, we might have quite a long wait for Storm Agnes just as we did for Storm Antoni.

However, this doesn't necessarily mean that the season overall, will be quiet and so, it will be interesting to see how far we get down this latest list of storm names in the end.
 
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Gavin D
02 September 2023 09:06:29
Some parts of England and Wales are expected to see temperatures reach or exceed the threshold needed for and official heatwave next week, according to BBC weather.

London could hit 30c by mid-week.
Gavin D
03 September 2023 10:42:35
BBC Monthly Outlook

Summary
Dry and warm periods are likely in September

Saturday 2 September to – Sunday 10 September
Mostly dry and warm then unsettled later.

Monday 11 September to – Sunday 17 September
Becoming more settled again.

Monday 18 September to – Sunday 1 October
Potentially more unsettled by late September.

Further ahead

There might be clearer signs in the updated models of the pattern shifting round later in September, although the tropical Atlantic is still likely to have a say in the outcome.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook 
Gavin D
05 September 2023 11:02:45
The UKHSA have issued an amber heatwave alert for all areas of England except North East England
 
The warning is valid until 9pm on Sunday
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
07 September 2023 20:46:31
Quite a collection of showers beginning to show up on charts from Sunday onwards. Most models favour SW Scotland for some rain, but the Meto and MeteoGroup (BBC) predicting something thundery in the SE
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Saint Snow
07 September 2023 21:06:58
Don't know if it's been on before (I suspect it was made before 2022), but C5 had one of their light-hearted documentaries on earlier, this about the 1976 heatwave/drought.

I quite enjoyed it!

I was only 4 & half that summer, but have a number of memories. One thing that did strike me was how people coped in cars without aircon.

Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member
08 September 2023 06:50:23



I was only 4 & half that summer, but have a number of memories. One thing that did strike me was how people coped in cars without aircon.

Originally Posted by: Saint Snow 



That was the summer that I spent, from the Whit halfterm onwards, weekend commuting between Manchester and Kent, having not managed to synchronise change of job with sale of house. I assure you that whatever memories you may have of Lancashire at that time, the conditions were basically pretty normal compared to what Kent was experiencing.

The then new rolling stock on British Rail was air-conditioned which was fine until it broke down, as happened on one occasion, and there were no windows that could be opened for a breeze.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl

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