There’s nothing to be gained in forecasting from 7 days. Ensemble analysis dictates very low confidence in this period and up to around Christmas and there’s pretty much every solution available.
Somethings going on - I can smell it 😉
Originally Posted by: nsrobins
Indeed Neil, still almost any synoptic pattern is possible for the Christmas period from high pressure through to an easterly or northerly or low pressure and west or south-westerlies.
The ECM 00z ensemble for London for 2m temperatures:
Reasonably tight agreement between GFS, ECM Op and its ensemble mean for the next week. From Thursday next week there's the usual spread but two points stand out: firstly the ECM op was in the mildest optionson days 9 and 10, and secondly there is still a strongish signal favouring a steady cool down. The GFS 00z was amongst the colder options but sits within the colder options on ECM.
Here's the wind strength chart:
No evidence of any strong winds or storms there but also little evidence of the calm you would expect under high pressure.
Finally, the precipitation chart:
A similar story with few runs giving completely dry conditions but not many runs producing significant rainfall events either.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E