A scoot of the ensembles suggests that there are enough pizza slices to warm and fill our bellies on the run up to Christmas to keep things very uncertain. 

Ballamar ...why do you not like the term ? 

I think it phrase is great to signify warm sectors....we all love pizza too 

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Wedge of Cheddar....would seem better.....preferably Mild Cheddar......sorry !!!!

Now we know why the UK has an obesity crisis, too many pizza slices.

That wretched, overused word has rapidly made it to the top of my hated terms. 

What is wrong with the good, old-fashioned term 'warm sector'?  

It does indeed Steve , Xmas day could actually be quite seasonal 

Warm Sector is a dreadful term that has wrecked many many winters since 1988.

We are now in the modern winter..its time to embrace new terms 

Thanks Ian, sorry, Steve...

A little correction is required, though. In a 'modern winter' we don't get warm sectors, we are in an eternal slug of mild south-westerlies. Maybe interspersed spasmodically by a brief ice-lolly of Pm air.....

Full credit to the GLOSEA model @metoffice spotted the SSW event weeks ago - here's a run from 10days ago showing the displacement event (18thDec) and the split vortex risk early Jan - quite similar to how Dec12-Jan13 went. Cold risk coming up for more email: [email protected] pic.twitter.com/eDPNrAyH3h

— Met-Set (@Met_Set_UK) December 13, 2018

Martin

Models definitely starting to sniff something around Christmas time. This could be the Beginning!

Looks like a slice of mildness from the NAVGEM this evening in the run up to Christmas.  

the 12zs find JMA in similar mood:

I think we may well need one or two bites at the cherry.  Possibly during the twelve days of Christmas will the cold arrive in more earnest?

Certainly enough in the 12z GEFS to whet the appetite in the run up to Christmas!!

bit controversial 😂😂

it may be a bit delayed ... he is no doubt out campaigning for St Jeremy 

He's popped out for some pizza this evening. He'll be back to view the ECM 12z soon 

Sone very cold members starting to show up on the ECM De Bilt ensembles.

Something's definitely brewing.

http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim

Again, some interesting output tonight. After far too many years of looking at NWP, the one thing I know is that when I see charts like this:

..it's not indicative of "this is what will happen", rather it's "*IDK! Give Me a Break".

A pattern shift is potentially in the offing in the mid- to longer term. Expect the models to toy with blocking/non-blocking like a cat with my boot laces for a few days yet before it's resolved.

No zonal weather insight- infact the UKMO 144 is pretty blocked-