Major flip from JAMSTEC now signalling an above average winter temp wise
That particular model hasn’t performed too well in recent years though has it so I give it as much weight as the CFS monthly means which, quelle suprise, have flipped again to -2 anomaly for Jan19 from +2 just yesterday.
I’d pay more attention to GLOSEA and atmospheric drivers which in association with and influencing the UKM text outlook look very promising into early January.
Caution - as peachy as the GFS OP looks this morning it needs to start dragging some of its members down with it before confidence rises to credible levels. Still think something’s brewing though.
Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO