Until the ECM is on board it’s hard to get overly enthusiastic about the GFS, the flatter pattern with low after low coming out of the states isn’t very seasonal but there’s always a chance of them taking a more southerly track depending on height anomalies being in the right place at the right time. 😕

 

And yet when DrMog made similar condescending comments about Shropshire earlier on it was roundly given the thumbs up

I see this place remains as clicky as ever for the sanctimonious few.

Not you Gooner by the way.  

Great to see you back Matty.

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I see the ECM operational run went off on its own a bit at day 6, looks a bit of an outlier against its pack, but no decent cooling showing
Martin

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On the subject of possibilities for Christmas. Here are the main three models that go out to Christmas Eve.

There is potential there but no consensus - GEM, GFS and ECM 12z op runs respectively at day ten:

 

 

Even with ECM, which looks least favourable, look at how far south that trough is digging, with the low angling the right way to drive energy SE'wards into continental Europe (And the SH ridging W'wards, albeit at a latitude that wouldn't directly advect cold over us, although may if it builds)

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Here is the Chinese take on Christmas Eve: wild and mild.

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And yet when DrMog made similar condescending comments about Shropshire earlier on it was roundly given the thumbs up

I see this place remains as clicky as ever for the sanctimonious few.

Not you Gooner by the way.  

 

Ah, it's that time of year when the chubby bloke in natty cloths who's been absent for the previous 12 months makes an appearance 

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We need Matty back in UIA to balance the remoaner bias!

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18z GFS is pretty horrific for coldies and has trended towards ECM and much more mobile. Ian Brown what do you think of the latest twist?

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18z GFS is pretty horrific for coldies and has trended towards ECM and much more mobile. Ian Brown what do you think of the latest twist?

I won't try to speak for Ian, but here is my forpenneth.

The GFS 18z is only as likely to verify as shown as any of the three previous GFS runs today are likely to verify, IMO. In others words, we need to treat FI with the same large dose of salt as was the case with the previous runs from today.

From what I can see, there isn't exactly an abundance of run-to-run consistency and cross model agreement at the moment, so all options are on the table as we go into the festive season.

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I won't try to speak for Ian, but here is my forpenneth.

The GFS 18z is only as likely to verify as shown as any of the three previous GFS runs today are likely to verify, IMO. In others words, we need to treat FI with the same large dose of salt as was the case with the previous runs from today.

From what I can see, there isn't exactly an abundance of run-to-run consistency and cross model agreement at the moment, so all options are on the table as we go into the festive season.

Agree David. Was somewhat tongue in cheek as I am really interested in developments high up. The potential SSW signal is gathering pace and coming within reliable range. I remain adamant that January is going to deliver something the likes of which we haven't seen for many years. And you know me, I don't tend to nail my colours to a cold mast very often.

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Although it looks poor for a while on this one run, it still shows a mass of blocking at the end so the signals are there. Would not be surprised to see a very cold run soon possibly becoming more consistent

Agree David. Was somewhat tongue in cheek as I am really interested in developments high up. The potential SSW signal is gathering pace and coming within reliable range. I remain adamant that January is going to deliver something the likes of which we haven't seen for many years. And you know me, I don't tend to nail my colours to a cold mast very often.

Let's hope you are vindicated with your thoughts about January just as you were vindicated about happenings during December three years ago.

We all know from only 10 months ago what SSW events are capable of bringing to the UK. I'm not saying that the same will happen this time round, but I think that the model output over the coming few days is going to make for interesting viewing.

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Face it.  Is it winter or spring?

 

Well I saw my first dafodile shoots yesterday ;)

 

Let's hope you are vindicated with your thoughts about January just as you were vindicated about happenings during December three years ago.

We all know from only 10 months ago what SSW events are capable of bringing to the UK. I'm not saying that the same will happen this time round, but I think that the model output over the coming few days is going to make for interesting viewing.

If you remember back to that last SSW as well, we can't also forget that in between that SSW happening and the first Beast From The event back at the end of February, the weather actually went into a very mild and Atlantic driven pattern for a while.

This means that even if this upcoming SSW event does happen as is being modelled and brings the sort of really cold weather afterwards which we would like to see, we should therefore expect to be very disappointed with the model output for a while before the really cold weather then comes into that, with the charts becoming a lot more interesting as a result.

 

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The models look fairly meh this morning. Both GFS and GFSP turn any blocking into a “Sceuro high” curving up from Spain into Scandinavia and keeping us well on the mild side. ECM now goes as far or as Xmas morning and just looks cool and unsettled.

0Z GEFS shows predominantly above average 850mb temps albeit there are several runs showing a brief dip at Christmas. 

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Meanwhile in the next few hours the UKV model now shows light snow down here, ahead of the breakdown. There were indeed a few flakes of sleet yesterday morning, FWIW. It won't amount to much (if the showers even arrive!), but it's still nice to see regardless.

 

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A fairly wholesale tick back to milder options across the board this morning. This isn’t unusual when significant pattern changes are being considered, so it’s a waiting game to see if any of the effects of drivers such as Strat temps and mountain tourniquets will start to appear in the longer range.
For now at least my ‘winter chart alert’ mode is back to standby.

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GEM is my favourite model this morning!! Not sure where the UKMO is going at 144hrs - time will tell
Martin

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Today's Arpege 00z precipitation type video shows a risk of snow in much of the UK for a time today. Full run here https://t.co/CZeKMQn6ME pic.twitter.com/1G8pQ3cI95

— TheWeatherOutlook (@TWOweather) December 15, 2018

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A fairly wholesale tick back to milder options across the board this morning. This isn’t unusual when significant pattern changes are being considered, so it’s a waiting game to see if any of the effects of drivers such as Strat temps and mountain tourniquets will start to appear in the longer range.
For now at least my ‘winter chart alert’ mode is back to standby.

Poetically put. 😁