The Weather Outlook

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JOHN NI
14 December 2018 19:26:20
I'm still waiting on a move from the GFS ensembles for the Christmas period. The operational today has been well towards or indeed at the bottom of the pack for the Christmas period. Still lots of uncertainty.....
John.

The orange County of Armagh.

UncleAlbert
14 December 2018 19:38:40
There have been many comments about how the models around last weekend were predicting a midweek breakdown for this colder period'. But to complete the picture I do remember that going back before then in the previous week at least one of the major models (GFS/ECM or may be both) predicted a break down for tomorrow for quite a few consecutive runs. It was only when some vicious dartboard lows came into the equation that the return of milder weather temporarily shifted towards Wednesday.
doctormog
14 December 2018 19:53:11

I'm still waiting on a move from the GFS ensembles for the Christmas period. The operational today has been well towards or indeed at the bottom of the pack for the Christmas period. Still lots of uncertainty.....

Originally Posted by: JOHN NI 

There are hints of a shift in the GEFS data however they are so tentative they could be gone in the morning...or stronger.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 

There are wintry possibilities in the output at the moment but they are only one option of many. OVeralll there is all to play for towards the end of the month but I wouldn’t make a bet on it. 

 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Shropshire
14 December 2018 20:02:42

I don’t often post in here as I like to learn from the more informed meteorologists among you. I do visit regularly for what I always thought was a more informed discussion of the models. Now it often just seems to be sniping often instigated by the posts from one particular person. Ok many here are looking for snowmaggedon and tend to go over the top in looking for this outcome but if they need to be educated at least make it based on the charts and real possibilities rather than vague statements about zonality, the Atlantic etc.
Sorry for the rant!

Originally Posted by: Norseman 

Yes it's unfortunate that there are people who want to jump on comments made by the person rather than the content.

 

From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
14 December 2018 20:03:22

.  

Wet and Mild ISH, with UK and North Atlantic Low Pressure, then briefly chilly on Saturday 22nd, but on Sunday and Monday it appears the current GFS 12z colder scenario is at odds with the ECMWF, as more Low Pressure crosses the UK from our SW, and active NW Atlantic Low Pressure is being shown for Sunday to Monday 23 to 24th December.

.

Cold pooling in the Norwegian Sea is shown at 168 to 240 on the GFS, north to SSE moving cold arctic air to North Europe, while on the ECMWF Model we see it showing winds pointing north with Low Pressure in the opposite direction... Mild South and SW flow over Central West Europe indeed.

I think this could be very teasing indeed.

Face it.  Is it winter or spring?

We are cold with frost and indeed winter is in charge at the moment with some wet and windy weather this Saturday so some fun to be had, and more mildness on Monday and Tuesday that bring heavy rain and strong winds from the West and SW, then maybe cool and chilly on Wednesday and Thursday with UK seeing Low Pressure, rain clearing to heavy blustery showers and cyclonic SW to WNW winds, on 19th and 20th December et all.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

doctormog
14 December 2018 20:10:07

On the subject of possibilities for Christmas. Here are the main three models that go out to Christmas Eve.

There is potential there but no consensus - GEM, GFS and ECM 12z op runs respectively at day ten:

 

 

 

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

Gooner
14 December 2018 20:14:34

 

And yet when DrMog made similar condescending comments about Shropshire earlier on it was roundly given the thumbs up

I see this place remains as clicky as ever for the sanctimonious few.

Not you Gooner by the way.  

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Good to see the Bristol boy back

Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus

Banbury

North Oxfordshire

378 feet A S L



LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
14 December 2018 20:16:21

On the subject of possibilities for Christmas. Here are the main three models that go out to Christmas Eve.

There is potential there but no consensus - GEM, GFS and ECM 12z op runs respectively at day ten:

 

 

 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

We will have to wait to see what the Models show and come up with say by the 19th and 20th, and then see how the ECMWF, GEM, GFS and UKMO Compare in their outputs for said time period.

Thanks for showing the charts and uncertainty they are showing.  Maybe we can turn the table tomorrow!.

Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.

doctormog
14 December 2018 20:18:37

 

We will have to wait to see what the Models show and come up with say by the 19th and 20th, and then see how the ECMWF, GEM, GFS and UKMO Compare in their outputs for said time period.

Thanks for showing the charts and uncertainty they are showing.  Maybe we can turn the table tomorrow!.

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 

 Yes, although even by the 20th we may not know!

Aberdeen

Current conditions (personal WS) 

White Meadows
14 December 2018 20:26:07

 

Season's greetings Matty. Season of goodwill and all that....

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 

Bless ‘im. Never was able to compose himself admirably. Back to the output and the AO index looks ready to dip. NAO doesn’t quite follow  but the whole NH atmosphere gets quite messy after 5-7 days. 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

 

Solar Cycles
14 December 2018 20:26:38
Until the ECM is on board it’s hard to get overly enthusiastic about the GFS, the flatter pattern with low after low coming out of the states isn’t very seasonal but there’s always a chance of them taking a more southerly track depending on height anomalies being in the right place at the right time. 😕
Hungry Tiger
14 December 2018 20:43:21

 

And yet when DrMog made similar condescending comments about Shropshire earlier on it was roundly given the thumbs up

I see this place remains as clicky as ever for the sanctimonious few.

Not you Gooner by the way.  

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

Great to see you back Matty.

Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - [email protected]

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



marting
14 December 2018 20:46:53
I see the ECM operational run went off on its own a bit at day 6, looks a bit of an outlier against its pack, but no decent cooling showing

Martin

Martin

Greasby, Wirral.

Saint Snow
14 December 2018 20:47:05

On the subject of possibilities for Christmas. Here are the main three models that go out to Christmas Eve.

There is potential there but no consensus - GEM, GFS and ECM 12z op runs respectively at day ten:

 

Originally Posted by: doctormog 

 

Even with ECM, which looks least favourable, look at how far south that trough is digging, with the low angling the right way to drive energy SE'wards into continental Europe (And the SH ridging W'wards, albeit at a latitude that wouldn't directly advect cold over us, although may if it builds)

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Whether Idle
14 December 2018 20:49:17

Here is the Chinese take on Christmas Eve: wild and mild.

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Saint Snow
14 December 2018 20:49:39

 

And yet when DrMog made similar condescending comments about Shropshire earlier on it was roundly given the thumbs up

I see this place remains as clicky as ever for the sanctimonious few.

Not you Gooner by the way.  

Originally Posted by: Matty H 

 

Ah, it's that time of year when the chubby bloke in natty cloths who's been absent for the previous 12 months makes an appearance 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

The Beast from the East
14 December 2018 21:52:17
We need Matty back in UIA to balance the remoaner bias!
Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

moomin75
14 December 2018 22:55:18
18z GFS is pretty horrific for coldies and has trended towards ECM and much more mobile. Ian Brown what do you think of the latest twist?
Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

David M Porter
14 December 2018 23:10:31

18z GFS is pretty horrific for coldies and has trended towards ECM and much more mobile. Ian Brown what do you think of the latest twist?

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

I won't try to speak for Ian, but here is my forpenneth.

The GFS 18z is only as likely to verify as shown as any of the three previous GFS runs today are likely to verify, IMO. In others words, we need to treat FI with the same large dose of salt as was the case with the previous runs from today.

From what I can see, there isn't exactly an abundance of run-to-run consistency and cross model agreement at the moment, so all options are on the table as we go into the festive season.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

moomin75
14 December 2018 23:32:17

 

I won't try to speak for Ian, but here is my forpenneth.

The GFS 18z is only as likely to verify as shown as any of the three previous GFS runs today are likely to verify, IMO. In others words, we need to treat FI with the same large dose of salt as was the case with the previous runs from today.

From what I can see, there isn't exactly an abundance of run-to-run consistency and cross model agreement at the moment, so all options are on the table as we go into the festive season.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

Agree David. Was somewhat tongue in cheek as I am really interested in developments high up. The potential SSW signal is gathering pace and coming within reliable range. I remain adamant that January is going to deliver something the likes of which we haven't seen for many years. And you know me, I don't tend to nail my colours to a cold mast very often.

Witney, Oxfordshire

100m ASL

ballamar
14 December 2018 23:35:24
Although it looks poor for a while on this one run, it still shows a mass of blocking at the end so the signals are there. Would not be surprised to see a very cold run soon possibly becoming more consistent
David M Porter
15 December 2018 00:45:08

Agree David. Was somewhat tongue in cheek as I am really interested in developments high up. The potential SSW signal is gathering pace and coming within reliable range. I remain adamant that January is going to deliver something the likes of which we haven't seen for many years. And you know me, I don't tend to nail my colours to a cold mast very often.

Originally Posted by: moomin75 

Let's hope you are vindicated with your thoughts about January just as you were vindicated about happenings during December three years ago.

We all know from only 10 months ago what SSW events are capable of bringing to the UK. I'm not saying that the same will happen this time round, but I think that the model output over the coming few days is going to make for interesting viewing.

Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

picturesareme
15 December 2018 02:15:40

Face it.  Is it winter or spring?

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 

 

Well I saw my first dafodile shoots yesterday ;)

johncs2016
15 December 2018 06:09:40

 

Let's hope you are vindicated with your thoughts about January just as you were vindicated about happenings during December three years ago.

We all know from only 10 months ago what SSW events are capable of bringing to the UK. I'm not saying that the same will happen this time round, but I think that the model output over the coming few days is going to make for interesting viewing.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

If you remember back to that last SSW as well, we can't also forget that in between that SSW happening and the first Beast From The event back at the end of February, the weather actually went into a very mild and Atlantic driven pattern for a while.

This means that even if this upcoming SSW event does happen as is being modelled and brings the sort of really cold weather afterwards which we would like to see, we should therefore expect to be very disappointed with the model output for a while before the really cold weather then comes into that, with the charts becoming a lot more interesting as a result.

 

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.

Rob K
15 December 2018 07:06:53

The models look fairly meh this morning. Both GFS and GFSP turn any blocking into a “Sceuro high” curving up from Spain into Scandinavia and keeping us well on the mild side. ECM now goes as far or as Xmas morning and just looks cool and unsettled.

0Z GEFS shows predominantly above average 850mb temps albeit there are several runs showing a brief dip at Christmas. 

Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

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