Question: why do people still use those rubbishy charts rather than the full thing, which I keep linking? Is it just that taking a screenshot and uploading it is a bit of a faff compared to hotlinking a chart from Meteociel?

If you use the full charts you will see that it's not without support, albeit it's in the top 10% or so by day 10 for 850s.

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperature

T2M wise, it is the warmest of the suite by day 10.

It's not until the 29th, however, before you get as much as a 10% chance of an air frost.

EDIT: That was for Reading. I've since switched the link to London, which has a 10% chance of an air frost early on Boxing Day, as well as on the 29th.

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Gfs Operation run look dire this morning - no sign of any cold ...still so I guess we shall have to wait until after Christmas to see some good blocked or cold type weather patterns on the GFS!? Once the SSW has taken place ? Also I notice no renewed bout of warming now in FI like in previous runs?

Meanwhile on weather is cool look what happens end of the month and there looks set to be a crash in the strength of the zonal winds with many ensembles now going negativity into reversal too...!!

Either the Met office's 16-30 day update will have to be modified or down graded or the GFS runs would need to be upgraded - hope the Met Office has this right and plus it does have support from other longer range models too and even the BBC Monthly outlook are picking up on something now towards the New Year. I guess it's a matter of watch this space..and having some patience for winter to arrive - probably in early to mid January - similar to winter 12/13 but time will tell! 

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yes, I have had this saved for a while now thanks, such a good tool and the ability to localise is excellent.

martin

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November and December both look significantly milder than average. IIRC there is a correlation which suggests a cold January and February are less likely than the statistical norm. I spoke to a few people in the run up this winter and there was a feeling it would either be cold or mild with a close to average outcome not favoured. Despite the latest Met Office updates (they have been atrocious for December IMO) for the rest of the winter I think the chances of it turning out to be mild/very mild have ratcheted up a notch or two. 

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The 06Z GFS operational run has rather more interest than recent runs, albeit mainly in FI. Now if only that High that finishes up right over the UK could be shifted a couple of hundred miles further west... 

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From my untrained eye, suggestions from GFS that pressure will fall or at least disrupt the high pressure belt to the south as we go into Christmas. With very very cold air to our north and synoptics at the end of the more reliable changing from run to run, I would say nothing should be ruled out yet with nine days to go still.

In spite of all models and met office updates as well as the SSW and the fact we are in solar minimum, and I was just reading two's forecast for Jan and Feb? Do you think that the SSW will not have an impact on our weather to give us cold and snow in January? 

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I have a terrible feeeling that this winter may turn out to be a case of chasing shadows despite favourable NH Synoptics, heights over Iberia continue to be modelled out in FI and this is never a good omen for cold to these shores.

 

Also why either very mild or colder? Why not average? why two extremes? Just wondering - Gavsweather vIDEO said too that if it can go wrong it would go very wrong so could turn out exceptionally mild. Very brave indeed. Many that are not sure go for average winter.

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The big unknown is what happens once the forecast SSW event has taken place, assuming it does happen as is currently being indicated. Without this, I would agree about the chances of a mild or very mild winter being higher, but as we saw in 2012/13 (both November and December 2012 were mild and wet that year), a SSW can alter the course of a winter considerably. I'm not saying that will happen again this winter, but it can't be ruled out.

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I agree David nothing is a given with regards a SSW be it mild or cold . I am still optimistic with regards wintry weather .

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The GFS Para has a white Christmas for Scotland  -10c 850s from the north 

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GFS Op keen again on a fair bit of HP in middle to latter stages - be interesting to see what support there is in the ens.

The key point seems to be the HP cell leaving the southern US/Mexico area, and how far this manages to ridge North as it wanders towards us in the run up to Christmas. GFS Op makes more of this than the ECM OP and HP get's far enough North to bring a seasonal feel.

That idea wasn't unsupported in the 00z ens, although there was also support for the HP not getting far enough North and settling to the south of us.

The far end of the 6z run does also show how quickly cold air can become established just to our East, although on this run we end up with a chilly UK HP and the colder air misses us. Wouldn't take an awful lot to change that though (or to be fair to flatten the pattern).

No clear idea of the Xmas setup or post Xmas setup yet IMO although properly cold air seems unlikely but can't be ruled out until the models figure out how much amplification we see and where any HP cells set up.

At least it's not wall to wall zonality with mild air blasting through to Russia

 

 

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Once again the ensembles show a more settled picture just after xmas. How that HP develops and if it reorientates will be key as we head into 2019