Thanks Neil.

Same here. In November last year we had snow (which eventually turning into lethal frozen slush) lying for a number of days. This winter so far, not a flake to be seen. The average date for the first snowfalls of the winter here I believe is around Dec 6th. Well passed that now and looks highly unlikely that I won't be seeing any for the rest of this month if model trend is anything to go by. I don't really care as much for snow as others might so just posting an observation than a despair. What I do despair about though is the sheer lack of any significant, notable weather since the Autumn. The Atlantic just does not seem to want to go into full throttle this year. 

Here you go:

Lift off!!!!!

Thanks Maunder.

Not sure if this upcoming SSW will be on the same scale as the one in February, but at any rate it looks like being quite a notable one.

It is only a forecast at the moment, but the Berlin chart I posted above is usually pretty reliable.

Looks to be as big as the one earlier this year, but as we know, that does not mean we necessarily get cold weather, it just increases the chances - but it all depends on where the HLB sets up whether it means winter nirvana for the UK.

yes it’s not looking good. I was quite convinced of a cold snap at the end of December only until a couple of days ago but am now starting to realise that it is most probably a no go now. Many people are pinning their hopes on the forecast ssw- caution must be urged. As ever, it’s just a forecast and secondly even if it were a decent event any HLB may not align correctly for a UK cold spell. The makings of this winter, if it is to be a notable one, are all up for grabs. If the SSW does not deliver, then it may be a bitter pill to swallow. 

ECM 00z ensemble for London:

2m temperatures:

A clear cooling trend starting on Xmas Eve as the cold front drifts SE.  One cluster retains the milder air into Xmas Day but the Op is in line with the mean and fairly well supported.

Wind:

Precipitation (rain....):

Both charts support a very changeable week ahead before a trend favouring high pressure establishing near the UK.

Looks good - only a few more days to wait before we know whether this forecast will verify or not.

The increases in temperature all seem to be preceded by smaller, but not insignificant falls in temperature. Is this normal or just a one-off and if it is normal, what is the mechanism that causes a fall before the rise?

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Very low 850s below -40C modelled over Greenland - not too encouraging for any high latitude blocking I would have thought!

Pizza again slicing it's way through the UK!!

Perhaps it will just get cold anyway, irrespective of any SSW.

Never underestimate the human condition to assume that what is, shall always be.

Crisp Xmas day from icon...

The amount of times we appear to have high pressure in the right place just for it to change, so who knows

The latter stage of the latest 12z GFS has a - dare I say it - winter '88 & '89 Bartlett high-esque look about it.

I'm of the age where I won't mind it. If we can't have the proper cold and snow in place just yet, at least let it be calm & benign where it could even feel spring-like in any sunshine we get to have, rather than the Atlantic acting like the jerk throwing storm system after storm system our way (why on Earth anyone would wish for that is beyond my comprehension, apart from Brian as it'll be good for site traffic). However, we'd probably end up with a few days of anticyclone gloom with low cloud and murkiness in the "no man's land" bit between Christmas and the New Year.

If my understanding is correct, it’s futile taking anything from any model post 240 until the effects of the dramatic warming in the strat manifest themselves in the NWP which we won’t see for a week at least.

This of course assumes it will have an effect 😎

The CMC 12z run is more interesting

Christmas day still looking like we could see something colder best chance of snow will probably be in Scotland

I find myself in agreement with you, Mr Ian!  Now that a white Christmas is looking pretty remote, I'd take a seasonal feel with settled weather prevailing thereafter. The temperatures can do what they want.

Pleased to see high pressure in charge on GFS this evening.

This is how I see the pattern looking at the other members. High pressure growing east nearer to new year

martin