The Weather Outlook

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Solar Cycles
18 December 2018 11:53:42

 

That's if you assume that the SSW will have a positive impact (for cold fans) on the UK weather. 

Originally Posted by: wallaw 

Indeed, so fingers crossed😁

Brian Gaze
18 December 2018 11:58:56

 

Me too and it's another wet and windy mild day here!

on this note - has anyone notice the strat @ 10hpa - this has stopped updating since Monday 06z...? Brian?

 

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

 

Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 

Here you go:

 


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

JACKO4EVER
18 December 2018 12:22:12
Great job Brian many thanks 👍
White Meadows
18 December 2018 13:49:29

 

 

Christmas is coming 

The goose is getting fat

The world's weather balloons have all gone flat

When you haven't got much data

Then tea leaves will do

But if you believe the GFS then more fool you. 

 

Originally Posted by: Downpour 

Very good! đŸ€Ș

Rob K
18 December 2018 16:51:13

GFS is sneakily bringing in an easterly flow of sorts for Xmas Day. Not particularly cold, though, and more of a southeasterly.

 

Then early in January something you don't often see, even in La-la-land - virtually the whole country above 1050mb!

 


Yateley, NE Hampshire, 73m asl

"But who wants to be foretold the weather? It is bad enough when it comes, without our having the misery of knowing about it beforehand." — Jerome K. Jerome

Brian Gaze
18 December 2018 16:55:52

GFS is sneakily bringing in an easterly flow of sorts for Xmas Day. Not particularly cold, though, and more of a southeasterly.

 

Then early in January something you don't often see, even in La-la-land - virtually the whole country above 1050mb!

 

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

Yes. There is definitely more interest so far this evening.


Brian Gaze

Berkhamsted

TWO Buzz - get the latest news and views 

"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan

Ally Pally Snowman
18 December 2018 17:46:30

Looks like a slow burner this one lots of dry faux cold boring weather to get through before the promised land. We hope

 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
JACKO4EVER
18 December 2018 17:54:07

Looks like a slow burner this one lots of dry faux cold boring weather to get through before the promised land. We hope

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

many epic cold spells of the past endured a boring “faux” starting period 

a little more interest tonight, perhaps the late December cold spell hope isn’t entirely as dead as some posters believe 

jhall
18 December 2018 19:00:12

Tonight's T+240 ECM isn't too far from giving us what we (or most of us, anyway) want.


Cranleigh, Surrey
David M Porter
18 December 2018 19:01:28

Looks like a slow burner this one lots of dry faux cold boring weather to get through before the promised land. We hope

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

IIRC we had a spell of such weather before both the mid-Dec '09 to mid-Jan '10 and late November/December 2010 severe spells.

It isn't normally the case, in my experience anyway, for us to go straight from an unsettled westerly period to a major cold outbreak without a HP-dominated spell in between them. We also had a spell like this before the February 1991 freeze too as far as I recall.


Lenzie, Glasgow

"A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." – Thomas Paine

nsrobins
18 December 2018 19:07:44

 

IIRC we had a spell of such weather before both the mid-Dec '09 to mid-Jan '10 and late November/December 2010 severe spells.

It isn't normally the case, in my experience anyway, for us to go straight from an unsettled westerly period to a majoe cold outbreak without a HP-dominated spell in between them. We also had a spell like this before the February 1991 freeze too as far as I recall.

Originally Posted by: David M Porter 

We did indeed - nearly a week of quite benign quiet days as the high extended from the Azores across the UK and up to Scandinavia. The arrival of the deep cold was courtesy of my favourite feature - a cold front moving east to west dropping temperatures by 7 or 8 deg in 12 hours as the snow flurries moved in on the Tues afternoon.

Back to reality - the chaotic nature of the NWP in the latter stages continues as the grids try to resolve major changes higher up.


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

Arcus
18 December 2018 19:09:35

Tonight's T+240 ECM isn't too far from giving us what we (or most of us, anyway) want.

Originally Posted by: jhall 

Earlier than that, the Xmas period is still evolving as well. A day or so ago it looked like a weak NW'ly PM flow, now the models are looking at HP taking more of a role over the UK (and then all that might follow after that in the NWP).

Shannon Entropy anyone?


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

Arcus
18 December 2018 19:12:03
Damn, just realised I've just chalked off a phrase from my own TWO Winter Phrases Bingo Card.

Nearly got 4 corners now.


Ben,

Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire

30m asl

fairweather
18 December 2018 20:17:10

 

Agree to an extent but it's a fine line and the 2m stamps don't look cold to me.

Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 

5C on January 1st and no frosts aren't particularly inspiring me especially after a December that will probably have zero frosts here this year. It is going to be a mild start to winter.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Whether Idle
18 December 2018 20:20:27

ECM says have yourself a plume-tastic little Christmas:

Maxima widely 10-12 c - BBQ for the Turkey anyone?

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/great-britain/max-temperature-6h/20181226-0000z.html

 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
The Beast from the East
18 December 2018 20:21:54

 

The arrival of the deep cold was courtesy of my favourite feature - a cold front moving east to west dropping temperatures by 7 or 8 deg in 12 hours as the snow flurries moved in on the Tues afternoon.

 

Originally Posted by: nsrobins 

Still remember that day well, though it was snowing here in the morning as we went to school


Purley, Surrey, 70m ASL

"We have some alternative facts for you"

Kelly-Ann Conway - former special adviser to the President

White Meadows
18 December 2018 20:33:57
http://www.weersite.net/?actueel&ensemble&ecmwfpluim 

It’s just as plausible the much fabled wind reversal doesn’t propagate favourably for our neck of the woods at all.

January bar 10 & 13 (or was it 14) has produced little if nothing notable in my region over the past 20 or so years.

Whether Idle
18 December 2018 20:47:46

The GEFS from the 12z indicate fairly mild out til Christmas Eve, then it can get cooler or milder.  Depends where the controlling high sits, the much vaunted ECM went for the milder version on its 12z Op.  More runs needed before this one is resolved. The lack of snow rows is notable.

Diagramme GEFS


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Gavin D
18 December 2018 20:53:44

Not bad at all from UKMO for Christmas day a light southerly and dry for many

ukm2.2018122512_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.1abcebb4b3b707e0a2fa21b693f984c3.png

Downpour
18 December 2018 21:22:25

Looks like a slow burner this one lots of dry faux cold boring weather to get through before the promised land. We hope

 

Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman 

 

I’m rather partial to a spot of dry faux cold, good walking weather over the Christmas break, walking to pubs through Epping Forest and chilly enough to appreciate their roaring fires. 


Chingford

London E4

147ft

picturesareme
18 December 2018 21:37:43

The GEFS from the 12z indicate fairly mild out til Christmas Eve, then it can get cooler or milder.  Depends where the controlling high sits, the much vaunted ECM went for the milder version on its 12z Op.  More runs needed before this one is resolved. The lack of snow rows is notable.

Diagramme GEFS

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

 

Looks roughly 40% 2-4C 40% 5-7C and 20% 8+C from boxing day onwards. I see that as a high chance of it being either cold or very cold with a small chance of average.

nsrobins
18 December 2018 21:44:35
Icon follows the trend these last few days (Icon/GFS) of raising heights over us and ever higher in increments from D5.

I can still sense something is brewing.


Neil

Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)

Stormchaser, Member TORRO

seringador
18 December 2018 22:29:14

The Japanese are showing a beast from the east after christmas, I know sometimes the JAM +168h is jammed...but in other hand sometimes it delivers something

. The possible SSW is on the wrong side of the globe if we se the VP in Iceland or Greenland it could be good news, otherwise it could be for China and Russia...


Extremes

Max Temp: 40.2ÂșC (03.08.2018)

Min Temp: -1.1ÂșC ( 03.01.2021)

Porto 86m and CampeĂŁ 820m (MarĂŁo 1414m)

@planoclima

SEMerc
18 December 2018 22:40:50

Absolute shocker of a pub run through T+252.

SEMerc
18 December 2018 22:54:50

A truly, truly awful run.

I won't be able to find a bin large enough for that monstrosity.

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