Brilliant haha

This is not a usual winter chart, not sure what grabs my attention more , Greenland Siberia or completely disorganised PV

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png

I hear you brother. But over the last couple of days- across all output- we have had a number of bizarre and unfathomable charts that lead me to suggest something is afoot. It’s not flip flopping per say, but a general background consensus of confusion. Something is brewing, I’m convinced.

Yeah, it's a bit of alright, innit?

Get a few days of horrible wet'n'windy crap out the way and 'bingo'

384 !! Best chart

Its T+384 chart is a thing of beauty. 🙂 I expect the next run will be totally different, though.

Still far out in forecasting terms, but seems to be trend to a colder theme as we head towards Christmas.

For me this is beginning to have shades of February this year. When I say that I don't mean in terms of us having the same outcome weatherwise (it would be daft to to say the least for anyone to assume that) but in terms of the amount of confusion on the models that we had then and appears to be developing now. We had a SSW that month I believe one is forecast for later this month.

Interesting days lie ahead in the world of model watching, methinks.

When the ECM ensembles come out. Will be interesting the see the suite

Definitely something afoot. 06z is wonderful. 22-26 December is looking exciting - I'd take Snow of any of those days 

I think that goes for many people, tbh!

I've seen worse Christmas charts

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_276_1.png

Fingers crossed we're moving in the right direction.

Nice example of the rarely seen "Tasmanian high" (in shape rather than location)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=264&code=0&mode=1

Some cold 850,s to help Xmas along.Don't see great support yet in the GEFS 06h

I think any cold spell of significance is more likely in the new year, possibly very early on, and those ensembles show the cold op to be an outlier.

Average winter fayre far more likely at this range (10 days til Xmas Eve). Still time for that to change for the big day though.

Major flip from JAMSTEC now signalling an above average winter temp wise

goes to show how pointless it is if it’s a major flip

The latest EC long term forecasts remaining bullish about a drop in the AO and eventually, the NAO indices as we head into the early part of January. Weeks away yet so could all be hogwash, but it is interesting how this model has stuck to this theme over the last number of runs. 

simon king raidio 5 live this morning asked if a white xmas likely was a def no from him  mild Sw winds all next week and up to xmas.!

That particular model hasn’t performed too well in recent years though has it so I give it as much weight as the CFS monthly means which, quelle suprise, have flipped again to -2 anomaly for Jan19 from +2 just yesterday. 

I’d pay more attention to GLOSEA and atmospheric drivers which in association with and influencing the UKM text outlook look very promising into early January. 

Caution - as peachy as the GFS OP looks this morning it needs to start dragging some of its members down with it before confidence rises to credible levels. Still think something’s brewing though.