All I need to do is to see if the individuals on my 'twats list' are the most recent posters. 

Brilliant haha

This is not a usual winter chart, not sure what grabs my attention more , Greenland Siberia or completely disorganised PV

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_192_1.png

 

People getting tired of hopecasting? Ensembles for a selection of western European sites look very much close to average for the majority of runs.

I hear you brother. But over the last couple of days- across all output- we have had a number of bizarre and unfathomable charts that lead me to suggest something is afoot. It’s not flip flopping per say, but a general background consensus of confusion. Something is brewing, I’m convinced.

06z!!

Yeah, it's a bit of alright, innit?

Get a few days of horrible wet'n'windy crap out the way and 'bingo'

06z!!

384 !! Best chart

06z!!

Its T+384 chart is a thing of beauty. 🙂 I expect the next run will be totally different, though.

 

I hear you brother. But over the last couple of days- across all output- we have had a number of bizarre and unfathomable charts that lead me to suggest something is afoot. It’s not flip flopping per say, but a general background consensus of confusion. Something is brewing, I’m convinced.

For me this is beginning to have shades of February this year. When I say that I don't mean in terms of us having the same outcome weatherwise (it would be daft to to say the least for anyone to assume that) but in terms of the amount of confusion on the models that we had then and appears to be developing now. We had a SSW that month I believe one is forecast for later this month.

Interesting days lie ahead in the world of model watching, methinks.

When the ECM ensembles come out. Will be interesting the see the suite

Definitely something afoot. 06z is wonderful. 22-26 December is looking exciting - I'd take Snow of any of those days 

When the ECM ensembles come out. Will be interesting the see the suite

Definitely something afoot. 06z is wonderful. 22-26 December is looking exciting - I'd take Snow of any of those days 

I think that goes for many people, tbh!

 

For me this is beginning to have shades of February this year. When I say that I don't mean in terms of us having the same outcome weatherwise (it would be daft to to say the least for anyone to assume that) but in terms of the amount of confusion on the models that we had then and appears to be developing now. We had a SSW that month I believe one is forecast for later this month.

Interesting days lie ahead in the world of model watching, methinks.

I've seen worse Christmas charts

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_276_1.png

Fingers crossed we're moving in the right direction.

Nice example of the rarely seen "Tasmanian high" (in shape rather than location)

 

I think that goes for many people, tbh!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=264&code=0&mode=1

Some cold 850,s to help Xmas along.Don't see great support yet in the GEFS 06h

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=264&code=0&mode=1

Some cold 850,s to help Xmas along.Don't see great support yet in the GEFS 06h

 

 

I think any cold spell of significance is more likely in the new year, possibly very early on, and those ensembles show the cold op to be an outlier.

Average winter fayre far more likely at this range (10 days til Xmas Eve). Still time for that to change for the big day though.

Major flip from JAMSTEC now signalling an above average winter temp wise

Major flip from JAMSTEC now signalling an above average winter temp wise

goes to show how pointless it is if it’s a major flip