could be. Certainly, things have improved notably from the dredge of a week or so ago.

It's possible but at the moment only 5 frames out of 352 brings the blues within sight of the UK.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs.aspx?run=na&charthour=294&chartname=ps_850tempuk&chartregion=uk&p=1&charttag=PS%20850hPa%20temp

The Web as a whole seems to be pretty quiet. I imagine that a lot of people are busy doing their pre-Christmas preparations or partying.

Either that or they are too pre-occupied with the Brexit thread in UIA.

CFS monthly update couldn’t  look more mild for January. At least Feb is indicative of something more seasonal, no doubt we’ll be into ‘solar warming’ territory by then 🤪

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

GFS 18z is evolving differently to the 12z and has the makings of a classic pub run as we approach the end of the high res output.

T+228 and WAA is being pumped up towards Greenland 

Nice to see the PV split all over the place if nothing else. Potential and all that

Certainly potential from here.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2222.gif 

Go back and have a look at the next run. I guarantee it will look different. The CFS monthly anomalies are the electronic manifestation of chocolate teapots if ever there is such a thing.

On topic - the NWP is in what I call ‘scooby’ mode at the moment. Wild swings intra and inter run. Somethings brewing.

'Chedder'? That's too 'cheesy' 

Something's definitely brewing. The ECM stratosphere charts now show a reversal right at the top - just look how hot it is forecast to be up there!

http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/winterdiagnostics/index.html

EDIT: And although the written MetO forecast studiously avoids mentioning it, look what's on the automated forecast for today IMBY!

Sleet. Believe me, that's exciting for here!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

The hunt goes on... but I’m not convinced of any marked cold spell this year.

Ah, so that's what a 'pizza slice' is. 

Think I'll stick with 'warm sector' myself. It uses the same amount of letters so no more or no less effort involved. 

People getting tired of hopecasting? Ensembles for a selection of western European sites look very much close to average for the majority of runs.

See also GEM and GFS

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GEMOPEU00_240_1.png 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_276_1.png 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU00_180_1.png

I always get the feeling when charts like this are in the offing (messy) that usually something is brewing.

While the ensembles are not showing much YET. I do get the feeling that these could shift very suddenly.

I haven't been this optimistic over Christmas period for sometime.

Interesting things to remember (that's keeping me going at least)

1) The old adage that there is always two or three attempts at Easterly before we get the full wack

2) The Atlantic, despite numerous attempts recently hasn't really got going. This week is a case in point.

Obviously it remains to be seen if we do get anything - but for people like me who have been starved of a White Christmas - I am extremely hopeful now.

For me, the differences between the ECM and GFS 00z op runs could not be more stark this morning. It is beginning to remind me a bit of the way those two models were chopping and changing for a while back in mid-February this year, just as the SSW which preceded the Beast from the East was taking place. I'm not in any way trying to suggest that history is about tob repeat itself but one does get the feeling that this something is afoot.

UKMO extended swinging towards ECM this morning

At least it won't be cold 

Harrumph. I begin my usual daily read-through of MO thread posts since last night and see an optimistic post from the always excellent Retron, only for that to be followed by a logjam of misery from everyone else.

I don't really need to plough the whole thread if I'm looking for an indication of cold. 

All I need to do is to see if the individuals on my 'twats list' are the most recent posters.