Martin

Wow! GFS close to being 2010 Esque and at Christmas! 

Decent from GFS 12z 

I think we need to see model agreement on the slowing of the Atlantic, let's remember that last weekend the GFS was showing widespread double figure maxima for today.

Wise words that will probably be beyond comprehension for many on here. 👍

The mistake that GFS made last week was that it was too quick initially in bringing the atlantic back in. That said, the fact that the change back to a milder and more unsettled period looks like happening tomorrow means that it wasn't actually that far off the mark when all is said and done. It was right in showing that the atlantic would return; the only thing it was wrong in any way with was the timing of this happening.

That's a bit insulting to the 'many' on here, is it not?

Seconded

Yes, I remember that clearly. 

Yes they all showed the Atlantic coming back, but the GFS never even went for the easterly feed until around Monday.

I suspect the poster never even checked the accuracy of Ian’s comments. A quick search (took me about 30 seconds) was enough to show that his comment was in fact wrong. 

Sorry, David, but GFS was 4 days out at 7 days ahead. I'd call that pretty emphatically wrong.

Another way of putting it: it required another 3 attempts after GFS first predicted the breakdown from the west to shift the block enough to let troughs make inroads.

Of course none of this would really matter if a certain poster didn't focus exclusively on the output from one model when throwing out his expert guidance.

I certainly think some runs on Saturday 8th were showing double figure maxima for today.

GFS Para also suggesting Christmas fun and games definitely something  brewing. 

Absolutely not true, Ian, and you know it.

GFS was the first to pick up on the easterly, dropped it prematurely and then brought it back, but after UKMO and ECM locked onto the block forming and holding.

Another cold christmas op from GFS

GEFS for the 25th doesn't yet offer a very convincing support although there is an increase in cold members. 

And yet when DrMog made similar condescending comments about Shropshire earlier on it was roundly given the thumbs up

I see this place remains as clicky as ever for the sanctimonious few.

Not you Gooner by the way.  

Yawn.  I’m not sure if that post is more boring or ironic.

Anyway back to the models and Ian the 00z GFS op run on Saturday has maxima in double figures in a line from the Thames southwards, the other three runs were essentially single figures with the exception of parts of the far southwest.

Wasn't it the GFS that first hinted at this 'block' developing? 

Perhaps but the main models have been a bit all over the place in the medium term in the last week or so.

Season's greetings Matty. Season of goodwill and all that....

Very true. Although I am an 'ECMWF' man myself, I do think that the accuracy of its op's medium term outputs are somewhat overrated, while the GFS's are very often underrated. 

Hello stranger!

Sorry for the rant!