The latest EC long term forecasts remaining bullish about a drop in the AO and eventually, the NAO indices as we head into the early part of January. Weeks away yet so could all be hogwash, but it is interesting how this model has stuck to this theme over the last number of runs. 

simon king raidio 5 live this morning asked if a white xmas likely was a def no from him  mild Sw winds all next week and up to xmas.!

Major flip from JAMSTEC now signalling an above average winter temp wise

That particular model hasn’t performed too well in recent years though has it so I give it as much weight as the CFS monthly means which, quelle suprise, have flipped again to -2 anomaly for Jan19 from +2 just yesterday. 

I’d pay more attention to GLOSEA and atmospheric drivers which in association with and influencing the UKM text outlook look very promising into early January. 

Caution - as peachy as the GFS OP looks this morning it needs to start dragging some of its members down with it before confidence rises to credible levels. Still think something’s brewing though.

Wow! GFS close to being 2010 Esque and at Christmas! 

Decent from GFS 12z 

I think we need to see model agreement on the slowing of the Atlantic, let's remember that last weekend the GFS was showing widespread double figure maxima for today.

I think we need to see model agreement on the slowing of the Atlantic, let's remember that last weekend the GFS was showing widespread double figure maxima for today.

 

Wise words that will probably be beyond comprehension for many on here. 👍

I think we need to see model agreement on the slowing of the Atlantic, let's remember that last weekend the GFS was showing widespread double figure maxima for today.

 

The mistake that GFS made last week was that it was too quick initially in bringing the atlantic back in. That said, the fact that the change back to a milder and more unsettled period looks like happening tomorrow means that it wasn't actually that far off the mark when all is said and done. It was right in showing that the atlantic would return; the only thing it was wrong in any way with was the timing of this happening.

 

 

Wise words that will probably be beyond comprehension for many on here. 👍

That's a bit insulting to the 'many' on here, is it not?

 

That's a bit insulting to the 'many' on here, is it not?

Seconded

I think we need to see model agreement on the slowing of the Atlantic, let's remember that last weekend the GFS was showing widespread double figure maxima for today.

 

Yes, I remember that clearly. 

 

The mistake that GFS made last week was that it was too quick initially in bringing the atlantic back in. That said, the fact that the change back to a milder and more unsettled period looks like happening tomorrow means that it wasn't actually that far off the mark when all is said and done. It was right in showing that the atlantic would return; the only thing it was wrong in any way with was the timing of this happening.

Yes they all showed the Atlantic coming back, but the GFS never even went for the easterly feed until around Monday.

 

That's a bit insulting to the 'many' on here, is it not?

I suspect the poster never even checked the accuracy of Ian’s comments. A quick search (took me about 30 seconds) was enough to show that his comment was in fact wrong. 

 

The mistake that GFS made last week was that it was too quick initially in bringing the atlantic back in. That said, the fact that the change back to a milder and more unsettled period looks like happening tomorrow means that it wasn't actually that far off the mark when all is said and done. It was right in showing that the atlantic would return; the only thing it was wrong in any way with was the timing of this happening.

Sorry, David, but GFS was 4 days out at 7 days ahead. I'd call that pretty emphatically wrong.

Another way of putting it: it required another 3 attempts after GFS first predicted the breakdown from the west to shift the block enough to let troughs make inroads.

Of course none of this would really matter if a certain poster didn't focus exclusively on the output from one model when throwing out his expert guidance.

 

Yes, I remember that clearly. 

I certainly think some runs on Saturday 8th were showing double figure maxima for today.

GFS Para also suggesting Christmas fun and games definitely something  brewing. 

 

Yes they all showed the Atlantic coming back, but the GFS never even went for the easterly feed until around Monday.

 

Absolutely not true, Ian, and you know it.

GFS was the first to pick up on the easterly, dropped it prematurely and then brought it back, but after UKMO and ECM locked onto the block forming and holding.