A fairly wholesale tick back to milder options across the board this morning. This isn’t unusual when significant pattern changes are being considered, so it’s a waiting game to see if any of the effects of drivers such as Strat temps and mountain tourniquets will start to appear in the longer range.
For now at least my ‘winter chart alert’ mode is back to standby.

Agree.Yesterdays GFS Xmas cold ops have not persisted.Today's GEFS are mostly on the mild side and that stretches until the end of December Looking at the charts I would expect Meto to withdraw its possible  end of December cold forecast.

We now have to hope that the January cold in the longer range forecast materializes.

Despite the day to day changes in output I still think we are well placed for a cold snap towards the end of the month.

 

 

Well I saw my first dafodile shoots yesterday ;)

My bulbs are shooting in the front garden I noticed yesterday, can’t be right...  

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My bulbs are shooting in the front garden I noticed yesterday, can’t be right...  

 

It normal, but people pull it up every  year.  All they need is darkness and cold and their main growing triggers are triggered.  But they wont grow fast though unless there is lots of warm weather - usually arrives in spits and spats over jan, feb, march.  when the sun then takes over and wamrs the ground up... .alot of the ground work is done through the winter in bits though.  

 

Theres lots of snowdrop plants popping up in  the local woods... theyre there every year around xmas, but they dont flower til about Feb/March.  

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My bulbs are shooting in the front garden I noticed yesterday, can’t be right...  

Of course it can.  We are headed for the second mildest December since 1988.  Warmer than average months have come to dominate colder than average months with regard to the long term average, at a proportion of something like 3 or 4:1.

Hope springs eternal, and January will probably be closer to average than it looks like December is turning out to be.

(Hope-cast alert) I think we might start seeing something of real cold interest in the models around Christmastime for the first or second week of the new year.

Anyhow, back to the models.  Here is the Met O 144 for the solstice:

 

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My bulbs are shooting in the front garden I noticed yesterday, can’t be right...  

Its quite normal for around here, and if the first shoots hadn't arrived in December id have have thought it unusual. Russwirral pretty much explained it to a T.

 

Agree.Yesterdays GFS Xmas cold ops have not persisted.Today's GEFS are mostly on the mild side and that stretches until the end of December Looking at the charts I would expect Meto to withdraw its possible  end of December cold forecast.

We now have to hope that the January cold in the longer range forecast materializes.

They haven't done that today though Roger. IMO, there is enough uncertainty at the moment re late December to suggest that either a mild or somewhat colder end to the month is possible. That is pretty much how the MetO seem to be seeing it too, according to their update today.

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Awful output once again from the 12z.  even the Strat looks not as good on the GFS.  no sign of the all important split yet out to the 31st now. We really need the Strat to split and to be completely destroyed otherwise significant cold will be unlikely this winter.

 The GFS Para had the split on the 6z by the 31st so hopefully it's in the money 

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Awful output once again from the 12z.  even the Strat looks not as good on the GFS.  no sign of the all important split yet out to the 31st now. We really need the Strat to split and to be completely destroyed otherwise significant cold will be unlikely this winter.

 The GFS Para had the split on the 6z by the 31st so hopefully it's in the money 

I think you need to clarify what you mean by 'awful'. 

12z shows an unsettled start to the run before it starts to settle down for Christmas, with xmas day mostly dry and seasonal before HP settles over the UK, biased to the south bringing cool, frosty weather for a few days before a brief blip and then more HP.

Awful if all you want is screaming Easterlies but if you like some nice crisp winter days and a calm and benign Christmas period it's pretty good.

 

 

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I think you need to clarify what you mean by 'awful'. 

12z shows an unsettled start to the run before it starts to settle down for Christmas, with xmas day mostly dry and seasonal before HP settles over the UK, biased to the south bringing cool, frosty weather for a few days before a brief blip and then more HP.

Awful if all you want is screaming Easterlies but if you like some nice crisp winter days and a calm and benign Christmas period it's pretty good.

 

 

 

Awful = no snow or significant cold.

 

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Awful output once again from the 12z.  even the Strat looks not as good on the GFS.  no sign of the all important split yet out to the 31st now. We really need the Strat to split and to be completely destroyed otherwise significant cold will be unlikely this winter.

 The GFS Para had the split on the 6z by the 31st so hopefully it's in the money 

I don't think it is realistic to expect that we will transfer from an an unsettled atlantic dominated regime straight to a cold spell from the east. For me, what the GFS 12z op shows in FI would be one route to the development of a possible cold spell at a later time.

FWIW, the Beast from the East blast at the end of February this year was preceded by a quiet HP dominated spell which came after a short unsettled westerly spell. Patience is the name of the game right now, IMO.

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Awful = no snow or significant cold.

 

See my post above, APS.

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See my post above, APS.

 

I don't disagree with your post things can change very quickly 

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I don't think it is realistic to expect that we will transfer from an an unsettled atlantic dominated regime straight to a cold spell from the east. For me, what the GFS 12z op shows in FI would be one route to the development of a possible cold spell at a later time.

FWIW, the Beast from the East blast at the end of February this year was preceded by a quiet HP dominated spell which came after a short unsettled westerly spell. Patience is the name of the game right now, IMO.

A good example of the potential for a start to a favourable set-up: with a vast low from Svalbard to the Kara, increasingly cold input over NW Russia and E Scandinavia could help to grow a cold high over Scandinavia, at the same time propagating very low temperatures over W Russia. The right pressure configuration would give an easterly with all the qualities of an intense cold precursor.

As you correctly point out, these changes come as evolutions rather than revolutions.

 

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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/ECMOPEU12_120_1.png 

Can see the potential as long as Atlantic does what is needed could be a good run

The type of set up developing on the GFS operational from xmas could indicate a precursor to a big change. It's obviously deep FI but a close proximity HP replaced from the SW by a stronger cell and eventual strong WAA to the west is interesting 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_81_1.png 

So much High Pressure shame its not stronger - still think it could inflate quickly if jet stream is slacker

It's the theme for this winter - zonal spells and then repeated short, small highs that grow from the Azores high and loop up to Scandinavia and topple over with east - west axis, and start to slowly cool us down, without much arctic or polar continental air to really do the job for us. This awaits the next jet train - which then pushes it back east. As the jet weakens after Christmas, may be one will get stuck, embed and eventually deliver the real deal...

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Well the 0z is pretty awful. A fair few runs in a row now painting not a pretty picture for the rest of December. There is no point polishing a 💩.

Our hope remains what is going on high up, and January really should deliver something incredible, but as I said 2 weeks ago, December is pretty much a write off sadly, save for the wintry transient conditions that "some" favoured spots experienced yesterday.

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It's the theme for this winter - zonal spells and then repeated short, small highs that grow from the Azores high and loop up to Scandinavia and topple over with east - west axis, and start to slowly cool us down, without much arctic or polar continental air to really do the job for us. This awaits the next jet train - which then pushes it back east. As the jet weakens after Christmas, may be one will get stuck, embed and eventually deliver the real deal...

 

Yep, that's exactly the pattern that I can see. None of the lows dig far enough south enough to bring in a good cold northerly on the back edge, and the high never ridges far enough north to block the jet and deflect it south. 

As you say, let's hope we can break out of this pattern in January 

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