I'd take the 06z if offered given the other NWP output today. 

Just looking at the ensemble  mean/average:

Quite a strong PV even at 300z:

<<< Looks in, sees the output is pretty much still ****ing rank,  ducks back out >>>

I hate this country's climate (or, rather, the lack of one)

You've just got pre-match nerves 

A slight cooling trend and HP signal developing post Christmas 

It may not be wintry but at least it should be seasonal with early frosts. 

quite agree, in fact I still think we are in with a 20% chance of a cold spell around Christmas though a lot has to fall into place to deliver 

For Reyjavic, a bit of a cluster (6 of the GEFS members) around or above 1020mb towards the end of the run, OP included of course.

https://www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/ensembles

It is very disappointing as I among others thought this year was going to be different, but its still the same old dross every year 

Erm, looks like I must have been asleep for the whole winter and I have woken up in March.

[quote=Brian Gaze;1061955]

November and December both look significantly milder than average. IIRC there is a correlation which suggests a cold January and February are less likely than the statistical norm. I spoke to a few people in the run up this winter and there was a feeling it would either be cold or mild with a close to average outcome not favoured. Despite the latest Met Office updates (they have been atrocious for December IMO) for the rest of the winter I think the chances of it turning out to be mild/very mild have ratcheted up a notch or two. 

[/quote 

Less likely than the statistical norm but not precluded by a mild Nov and Dec.

The thing this winter could have a milder than average first half and colder than average second half and a close to average outcome is exactly what the stats for winter as whole would say. Yet due to the relative rarity of cold snowy spells it is the cold half of the winter that would stick in the mind.

I have daffodils shooting up in my garden at the moment but if they're under a foot of snow at some point in January  or Feb then that's what I,ll remember.

Because our normal winters are on the mild temperate and rather soggy side. It is the deviations to cold and snowy that are much starker in the public Psyche.

All the talk before the Winter was for cold hitting the UK ( perhaps) later in Jan and into Feb. 

In a field of strong contenders this is close to as bad a set-up as a UK winter can deliver from my perspective. I'll be fascinated to watch the model output unfold during the coming days. Will it start to consistently pick up the colder (bullish prediction) outlook the Met Office is talking about?

I know what you are saying Brian and I do agree with you that the chart above would be bad news were it to verify. That said, I would be a whole lot more concerned if that chart was being shown for next weekend rather than 16 days from now.

My advice at the moment is simply to let's see what happens beyond the unsettled spell of the coming week, and hopefully by the time we reach next weekend we may have a slightly better idea of what to expect in the days between Christmas and New Year.

Lets hope it turns out to be both accurate and bullish, rather than bulls**t.

Any cooler trend post Christmas discernible on earlier runs appears to have been a mirage if the Op is anything to go by.

Fortunately its well into FI, more runs needed.

My feeling is the change to cold will follow quickly the change of year.

Let's hope so because I just saw that and it looks dire ...all. a long way off but seems like they are trending exceptionally mild with winds coming up from Morocco, Spain and Portugal. At least last December we had cold zonality . We really need to see more inspiring model charts if we were to get some cold. Either the met Office outlook and even Bbc needs to back off on cold or the models need to upgrade to something colder towards end of the year to match this because it's a dire set up. At that rate we would be in short sleeve mild air temps of 12 to 15c NYE and NYD.🤮🤢

To be fair the CMC run is a lot more interesting.

Last winter was superb!

From the point of view of my own area, I agree.

I think it was one of those winters when, in the gramd scheme of things, northern parts of the UK (Scotland and northernmost areas of England) had a better winter overall for cold spells than souther areas did. We did have a few decent cold blasts in my area prior to the coming of the Beast at the end of February, some of which delivered some snowfall.

Down south, for me the Beast more than compensated for the shortage of interest earlier in the winter.

Getting back on topic, the 12Z ECM looks a bit more hopeful by T+240.

Most of the winter itself was pretty uninteresting here but March was excellent.