http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif 

Fingers crossed the high pressure settles over the UK for the week between Christmas and New Year. The injection of colder air being signalled from the Christmas Eve cold front should ensure the HP cell starts clear and cold before it fogs up. A period of calm, frosty and foggy weather was often a pre-cursor to a significant cold spell back in the 80's. 

Something will click in the cyber circuitry in the next few days that will bring the buzz back to this thread.

runs usually look better when less data over Xmas 

People still seem to be hanging their hopes on a mythical SSW. Goodness knows where that idea came from, only a few years ago you never even heard the phrase, now it has suddenly become the holy grail. Colour me thoroughly unconvinced. Getting cold weather in Britain is not as simple as that.

It's the only time most people are concerned about reports from aircraft.

I've never understood why this equation:  

less data = blocked and cold for the UK

should hold true. 

Anyway, tonight's output still supports a cool to cold Christmas for many and some settled weather beyond.

I have sneaky suspicion we are going to see somewhat more spread on the ensembles this morning

Next chart could be interesting or necessarily Xmas day but what happening over Siberia

GEFS trending drier and warmer. An absolute horror show from a personal point of view. 

Drier yes,

Warmer ? No Brian. 

A clear cooling trend post Christmas at the surface. Maxes of 6s and 7s after early frosts. Seasonal if you ask me.

Never use 850Hpa's as a guide when a winter anticyclone is around. 

In the mean time, the pre new year cold spell some were sure about looks less likely than ever:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

a tiny number of cold runs appearing after Xmas day, could be the start of some colder more blocked runs appearing.

Agree to an extent but it's a fine line and the 2m stamps don't look cold to me.

Wow, the zonal wind forecast posted on NW looks impressive, with 2 weeks to go until 2019 I am looking for some tasty FI charts to start appearing this week.

Yes, the output isn't great this morning but with the SSW anticipated and the medium range from the met office the possibility of things getting more interesting over the next week or so is definitely there!

Me too and it's another wet and windy mild day here!

on this note - has anyone notice the strat @ 10hpa - this has stopped updating since Monday 06z...? Brian?

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

The northern hemisphere charts started updating from t+42 on today's GFS 6z run. Once the run completes I'll manually generate the t+0 to t+39 nh charts.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs.aspx?run=06&charthour=42&chartname=mslp500arc&chartregion=nh&charttag=500hPa%20GPDM

The problem was caused by a bug in the new GFS download script I introduced yesterday afternoon. That aside it should be quicker and more efficient than the old one. 

Mild - 4

Cold - 6

Near average - 12

I don't agree with those tallies but I don't have the time or inclination to engage at the moment. 

That's if you assume that the SSW will have a positive impact (for cold fans) on the UK weather. 

Christmas is coming 

The goose is getting fat

The world's weather balloons have all gone flat

When you haven't got much data

Then tea leaves will do

But if you believe the GFS then more fool you. 

Mild and benign would sum up this morning's EC's outlook into the New Year.