roger63
Friday, December 14, 2018 5:55:25 PM

Another cold christmas op from GFS


GEFS for the 25th doesn't yet offer a very convincing support although there is an increase in cold members. 

Matty H
Friday, December 14, 2018 5:55:26 PM

Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


Seconded



And yet when DrMog made similar condescending comments about Shropshire earlier on it was roundly given the thumbs up


I see this place remains as clicky as ever for the sanctimonious few.


Not you Gooner by the way.  


doctormog
Friday, December 14, 2018 6:00:08 PM

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


 


And yet when DrMog made similar condescending comments about Shropshire earlier on it was roundly given the thumbs up


I see this place remains as clicky as ever for the sanctimonious few.


Not you Gooner by the way.  



Yawn.  I’m not sure if that post is more boring or ironic.


Anyway back to the models and Ian the 00z GFS op run on Saturday has maxima in double figures in a line from the Thames southwards, the other three runs were essentially single figures with the exception of parts of the far southwest.


Chunky Pea
Friday, December 14, 2018 6:00:10 PM

Wasn't it the GFS that first hinted at this 'block' developing? 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
doctormog
Friday, December 14, 2018 6:01:49 PM

Originally Posted by: Chunky Pea 


Wasn't it the GFS that first hinted at this 'block' developing? 



Perhaps but the main models have been a bit all over the place in the medium term in the last week or so.


Gandalf The White
Friday, December 14, 2018 6:04:03 PM

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


 


And yet when DrMog made similar condescending comments about Shropshire earlier on it was roundly given the thumbs up


I see this place remains as clicky as ever for the sanctimonious few.


Not you Gooner by the way.  



Season's greetings Matty. Season of goodwill and all that....



Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Chunky Pea
Friday, December 14, 2018 6:09:25 PM

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Perhaps but the main models have been a bit all over the place in the medium term in the last week or so.



Very true. Although I am an 'ECMWF' man myself, I do think that the accuracy of its op's medium term outputs are somewhat overrated, while the GFS's are very often underrated. 


Current Conditions
https://t.ly/MEYqg 


"You don't have to know anything to have an opinion"
--Roger P, 12/Oct/2022
marco 79
Friday, December 14, 2018 6:38:32 PM
The illustrated portrait of yin and yang beautifully displayed at 10pa over the N.H towards the end of the 12z. Interconnected in the natural world but radically different...-80c one side of pole....+10c the other....nice to view...long way out though...Looks like the 2nd phase...
Home : Mid Leicestershire ...135m ASL
David M Porter
Friday, December 14, 2018 6:40:05 PM

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


 


And yet when DrMog made similar condescending comments about Shropshire earlier on it was roundly given the thumbs up


I see this place remains as clicky as ever for the sanctimonious few.


Not you Gooner by the way.  



Hello stranger!


Lenzie, Glasgow

"Let us not take ourselves too seriously. None of us has a monopoly on wisdom, and we must always be ready to listen and respect other points of view."- Queen Elizabeth II 1926-2022
Norseman
Friday, December 14, 2018 6:42:42 PM
I don’t often post in here as I like to learn from the more informed meteorologists among you. I do visit regularly for what I always thought was a more informed discussion of the models. Now it often just seems to be sniping often instigated by the posts from one particular person. Ok many here are looking for snowmaggedon and tend to go over the top in looking for this outcome but if they need to be educated at least make it based on the charts and real possibilities rather than vague statements about zonality, the Atlantic etc.
Sorry for the rant!
JOHN NI
Friday, December 14, 2018 7:26:20 PM
I'm still waiting on a move from the GFS ensembles for the Christmas period. The operational today has been well towards or indeed at the bottom of the pack for the Christmas period. Still lots of uncertainty.....
John.
The orange County of Armagh.
UncleAlbert
Friday, December 14, 2018 7:38:40 PM
There have been many comments about how the models around last weekend were predicting a midweek breakdown for this colder period'. But to complete the picture I do remember that going back before then in the previous week at least one of the major models (GFS/ECM or may be both) predicted a break down for tomorrow for quite a few consecutive runs. It was only when some vicious dartboard lows came into the equation that the return of milder weather temporarily shifted towards Wednesday.
doctormog
Friday, December 14, 2018 7:53:11 PM

Originally Posted by: JOHN NI 

I'm still waiting on a move from the GFS ensembles for the Christmas period. The operational today has been well towards or indeed at the bottom of the pack for the Christmas period. Still lots of uncertainty.....


There are hints of a shift in the GEFS data however they are so tentative they could be gone in the morning...or stronger.


http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-2.3 


There are wintry possibilities in the output at the moment but they are only one option of many. OVeralll there is all to play for towards the end of the month but I wouldn’t make a bet on it. 


 


Shropshire
Friday, December 14, 2018 8:02:42 PM

Originally Posted by: Norseman 

I don’t often post in here as I like to learn from the more informed meteorologists among you. I do visit regularly for what I always thought was a more informed discussion of the models. Now it often just seems to be sniping often instigated by the posts from one particular person. Ok many here are looking for snowmaggedon and tend to go over the top in looking for this outcome but if they need to be educated at least make it based on the charts and real possibilities rather than vague statements about zonality, the Atlantic etc.
Sorry for the rant!


Yes it's unfortunate that there are people who want to jump on comments made by the person rather than the content.


 


From December 27th 2020, zonality will be banned from mixing with the UK. We appreciate that this may come as a shock to younger people and old Uncle Barty. This ban will last for a minimum of ten days.
LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Friday, December 14, 2018 8:03:22 PM

.  


Wet and Mild ISH, with UK and North Atlantic Low Pressure, then briefly chilly on Saturday 22nd, but on Sunday and Monday it appears the current GFS 12z colder scenario is at odds with the ECMWF, as more Low Pressure crosses the UK from our SW, and active NW Atlantic Low Pressure is being shown for Sunday to Monday 23 to 24th December.


.


Cold pooling in the Norwegian Sea is shown at 168 to 240 on the GFS, north to SSE moving cold arctic air to North Europe, while on the ECMWF Model we see it showing winds pointing north with Low Pressure in the opposite direction... Mild South and SW flow over Central West Europe indeed.


I think this could be very teasing indeed.


Face it.  Is it winter or spring?


We are cold with frost and indeed winter is in charge at the moment with some wet and windy weather this Saturday so some fun to be had, and more mildness on Monday and Tuesday that bring heavy rain and strong winds from the West and SW, then maybe cool and chilly on Wednesday and Thursday with UK seeing Low Pressure, rain clearing to heavy blustery showers and cyclonic SW to WNW winds, on 19th and 20th December et all.



Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
doctormog
Friday, December 14, 2018 8:10:07 PM

On the subject of possibilities for Christmas. Here are the main three models that go out to Christmas Eve.


There is potential there but no consensus - GEM, GFS and ECM 12z op runs respectively at day ten:





 


 


 


Gooner
Friday, December 14, 2018 8:14:34 PM

Originally Posted by: Matty H 


 


And yet when DrMog made similar condescending comments about Shropshire earlier on it was roundly given the thumbs up


I see this place remains as clicky as ever for the sanctimonious few.


Not you Gooner by the way.  



Good to see the Bristol boy back


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


LA2B MeridFlowEuro09
Friday, December 14, 2018 8:16:21 PM

Originally Posted by: doctormog 


On the subject of possibilities for Christmas. Here are the main three models that go out to Christmas Eve.


There is potential there but no consensus - GEM, GFS and ECM 12z op runs respectively at day ten:





 


 


 



We will have to wait to see what the Models show and come up with say by the 19th and 20th, and then see how the ECMWF, GEM, GFS and UKMO Compare in their outputs for said time period.


Thanks for showing the charts and uncertainty they are showing.  Maybe we can turn the table tomorrow!.



Climate is warming up, Scotland and N Ireland and North England still often gets some Winter frost, ice and snow, November to March, but the SE and South UK including S Central England and Wales, together with the West and North through the year, they sometimes get more rain than London and S SE England, where some longer dry fine spells without much heavy rain is seen every year.

The North Atlantic Sea often gets some much Colder Wintry conditions from November to March Months, and Mild SW and South winds tend to be more frequent over the East and SE of North Atlantic Sea, as the Azores High tends to stay in charge. 

With this warmth and heat, the Central and South UK has become mostly free of snow and frost.
doctormog
Friday, December 14, 2018 8:18:37 PM

Originally Posted by: LA2B MeridFlowEuro09 


 


We will have to wait to see what the Models show and come up with say by the 19th and 20th, and then see how the ECMWF, GEM, GFS and UKMO Compare in their outputs for said time period.


Thanks for showing the charts and uncertainty they are showing.  Maybe we can turn the table tomorrow!.




 Yes, although even by the 20th we may not know!


White Meadows
Friday, December 14, 2018 8:26:07 PM

Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 


Season's greetings Matty. Season of goodwill and all that....



Bless ‘im. Never was able to compose himself admirably. Back to the output and the AO index looks ready to dip. NAO doesn’t quite follow  but the whole NH atmosphere gets quite messy after 5-7 days. 


 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif


 

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