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The pattern appears changeable, with neither high nor low pressure fully in control. Most of the rain looks to arrive later in the period, after a largely dry start.
The period begins settled, turning unsettled and colder during the second week.
Daytime highs in the upper teens at first, above average for October, look set to ease back into the low teens later on, below average. Tuesday 13 October looks like the warmest day, with highs of 19°C, which is warm for mid-October. There are hints of colder nights later on, with minimums possibly around 3°C. If so, sheltered and rural areas could see patchy frost on clearer nights.
Some of the model output hints at gusts near 53mph later on, though timing at that range is unreliable. Rainfall totals could be significant, with around 41mm over the period.
These forecasts use interpolation to improve accuracy for your specific location, and are powered by either ECMWF or GFS model data depending on your selection. As with all weather forecasts, confidence decreases rapidly beyond 5 days ahead — treat the later dates as a heads-up about possible conditions rather than a firm prediction.
If you have a moment, please let us know what you think.
Days where frost, strong winds, heavy rain or snow are indicated in this forecast.
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Data from different computer models is blended to increase accuracy.
Charts showing the spread of possible outcomes across all members of an ensemble model.