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Weather updates from site founder Brian Gaze that keep you in the know.

Comparisons with December 1978

Published 7th December, 08:46

Cold weather becomes established during the coming days. Snow showers are likely in places, but much of the UK probably remains dry. Uncertainty increases next week and there is a risk of snow becoming more widespread and disruptive.

A repeat of December 1978?

Comparisons with the winter of 1978-79, the third coldest of the twentieth century, are being made in the media. The primary reason is due to the political and industrial unrest the UK is now experiencing.

However, there also appear to be some similarities with the weather. In fact, the Weather Analogue Index has for a number of days being showing 1978 as the best pattern match with the current year.

The reanalysis chart below shows pressure patterns across Europe and the North Atlantic region on December 31st 1978. An area of low pressure tracked across the English Channel. The mild and moist air associated with it bumped into the very cold air mass to its north resulting in heavy snow over much of southern Britain. 

Could we see a repeat next week

Computer models are showing low pressure areas trying to push in from the southwest next week. However, there is a lot of uncertainty about the forecast details.

Some model runs have the low pressure staying well to the south. Were that to be the outcome it would mean a continuation of the mostly dry and very cold conditions. Others have it pushing further north quickly with milder air returning and snow turning back to rain. Nonetheless, a third possible scenario is that low pressure will take a track which leads to heavy snow in parts of the UK.

Could there be heavy snow in the south?

This morning's UK Met Global 00z model run shows the low pressure taking a similar track to the system in 1978. The forecast chart below shows air mass temperatures and surface level pressure patterns on Tuesday, December 13th.  

All of the UK is staying under the blue shading which indicates a cold air mass. At this point snow is being shown in the south west of England and southern coastal counties. Parts of the UK not generally know for their propensity for snow. 

The precipitation forecast chart below is for 00:00 GMT on Wednesday, 14th December 14. Snow is indicated by pink shading and rain by blue. So by this time the risk of snow has extended across much of southern and central Britain. 

Nonetheless, the charts above are derived from one run of one deterministic model only. At the forecast range under discussion ensemble models are generally used and they are painting a very mixed picture. In other words taking things with a pinch of salt but if you're hoping or worried about the risk of snow then keep up to date with how things develop in the coming days. 

Remember that the area of snow is tiny on a global scale and computer models will struggle to position it accurately. A shift of a couple of hundred miles is trivial on a global scale but it will have a huge impact on the weather many of us will experience.

TL;DR

A number of recent computer  model runs have indicated an increasing risk of snow next week. Nonetheless, there is a huge amount of uncertainty at this stage. It is possible that milder conditions will quickly spread northwards meaning that rain rather than snow becomes the discussion.

Alternatively, the low pressure areas and weather fronts associated with them may track further south. If that's the outcome the UK remains under a cold air mass but snow would mostly be in the form of showers in northern and eastern coastal counties.. 

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