This New Scientist piece might be of interest to posters on this Model; Output Thread. Hope I'm right. Id not, feel free to move it. 🙂
"Traditional economics makes ludicrous assumptions and poor predictions. Now an alternative approach using big data and psychological insights is proving far more accurate... Economics is often lambasted for being a pseudoscience, with dense mathematical formulae that belie its subjectivity and a poor track record of making accurate predictions. J. Doyne Farmer thinks we can do better. In his new book, Making Sense of Chaos, he unpicks why standard economic approaches often fail – and presents a radical alternative. Complexity economics, as it is called, treats economies as systems akin to natural ecosystems or Earth’s climate. Giant computer simulations based on these ideas offer a better representation of how billions of people interact within the global economy
The man reinventing economics with chaos theory and complexity science
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg26234870-200-the-man-reinventing-economics-with-chaos-theory-and-complexity-science/ 

Even though we may not think it, weather is far less chaotic than is commonly considered. A butterfly flapping its wings will not change the course of any weather system... indeed it would take massive inputs to change course of the weather.

Weather faithfully follows the laws of physics. The only reason we cannot interpret current situations to accurately predict the progression of any synoptic situation is that there are literally too many contributory factors - from every corner of the globe - that dictate how any set-up will then progress. With enough data inputs, it would be possible to accurately predict the weather from weeks out. 

It's near-impossible, though, to have sufficient data inputs, for two main reasons. One is the sheer scale of the number of inputs, and from around the world; the second (bigger) problem is that we have nowhere near the scale of historical records of how the weather reacts to different inputs (because there are simply too many variables, and you'd need millions of years of historical data)

 

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Even though we may not think it, weather is far less chaotic than is commonly considered. A butterfly flapping its wings will not change the course of any weather system... indeed it would take massive inputs to change course of the weather.

Weather faithfully follows the laws of physics. The only reason we cannot interpret current situations to accurately predict the progression of any synoptic situation is that there are literally too many contributory factors - from every corner of the globe - that dictate how any set-up will then progress. With enough data inputs, it would be possible to accurately predict the weather from weeks out. 

It's near-impossible, though, to have sufficient data inputs, for two main reasons. One is the sheer scale of the number of inputs, and from around the world; the second (bigger) problem is that we have nowhere near the scale of historical records of how the weather reacts to different inputs (because there are simply too many variables, and you'd need millions of years of historical data)

 

I think everyone on the thread will concur, Saint - but the interesting point is those very areas of difficulty can inform other models in other disciplines. For example, the preview to the book mentions "climate change" rather than "weather".
"In Making Sense of Chaos one of INET Oxford's most influential scientists, J. Doyne Farmer, tackles these questions and more. Introducing the new field of complexity economics, he describes how rebellious economists and other scientists are revolutionising our ability to predict the economy, developing new approaches to global problems – like climate change, inequality, and the devastating impact of financial crises, which hit the poorest hardest."
https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/making-sense-of-chaos-a-better-economics-for-a-better-world 
 
 

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I think everyone on the thread will concur, Saint - but the interesting point is those very areas of difficulty can inform other models in other disciplines. For example, the preview to the book mentions "climate change" rather than "weather".
"In Making Sense of Chaos one of INET Oxford's most influential scientists, J. Doyne Farmer, tackles these questions and more. Introducing the new field of complexity economics, he describes how rebellious economists and other scientists are revolutionising our ability to predict the economy, developing new approaches to global problems – like climate change, inequality, and the devastating impact of financial crises, which hit the poorest hardest."
https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/making-sense-of-chaos-a-better-economics-for-a-better-world 
 
 

Sorry, I meant to add a bit more to tie my post back your yours 😬

I was going to say that economic modelling based on computer simulations is pretty pointless, given the way that even relatively small actors on the global stage can have major impacts on the economic trajectory.

Look at the economic chaos that has ensued from Putin's invasion of Ukraine, with that massive inflationary spike. On a smaller scale, the Houthis targeting shipping in the Red Sea.

The global economic course can be heavily deviated by the actions of one state, in a way that weather cannot be.

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Sorry, I meant to add a bit more to tie my post back your yours 😬

I was going to say that economic modelling based on computer simulations is pretty pointless, given the way that even relatively small actors on the global stage can have major impacts on the economic trajectory.

Look at the economic chaos that has ensued from Putin's invasion of Ukraine, with that massive inflationary spike. On a smaller scale, the Houthis targeting shipping in the Red Sea.

The global economic course can be heavily deviated by the actions of one state, in a way that weather cannot be.

I'm not going to spend £25ish on Amazon for his forthcoming book, Saint - that's a bottle of Scotch! 😁 I'll wait for the price to drop - then I may have something more useful to add. I was intrigued that he is reported to have transferable cross-disciplinary examples. My economics is a bit limited - agricultural mostly - so I'll wait to see what he has to say.
 

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The global economic course can be heavily deviated by the actions of one state, in a way that weather cannot be.

I'd be interested to know if anyone has investigated the effect of a major war - and counting Ukraine as such - on the weather locally or regionally. Probably less CO2 as normal industrial production is reduced but a great deal of extra nitrogen oxides from detonation of explosives, even possible effects with extra aircraft generating emissions at higher levels in the atmosphere, and associated contrails.

Maybe yes, maybe no, but more than a flap of a butterfly's wings. 
 

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I'd be interested to know if anyone has investigated the effect of a major war - and counting Ukraine as such - on the weather locally or regionally. Probably less CO2 as normal industrial production is reduced but a great deal of extra nitrogen oxides from detonation of explosives, even possible effects with extra aircraft generating emissions at higher levels in the atmosphere, and associated contrails.

Maybe yes, maybe no, but more than a flap of a butterfly's wings. 
 

If the situation ever escalated to a full scale nuclear war of course, that would probably certainly have a massive effect on our weather although I doubt that any of us would actually be around afterwards to be able to see that, let alone record or investigate that.

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WX temp prediction show a painfully slow process of getting milder, not exactly warmer, over the next two weeks. Today confirms yesterday's charts, warmer around the Med and Black Sea, less cold in N Scandinavia, Europe just a bit milder, Britain little changed. The pattern of rain in week 1 is similar to yesterday - mostly over Germany, N Italy and eastwards - but a change for week 2 with the rain band shown yesterday having moved N-wards to affect Britain, down through France and across to the Balkans.

GFS Op - HP creeping in slowly from the west and in place by Saturday suppressing the N-lies plaguing the E coast. It doesn't stay, moving up to Iceland by Tue 23rd while pressure drops over W Europe and winds freshening from the NE esp for S England. The LP over Europe deepens and gets closer 995mb East Anglia Sat 27th so NE-lies become more general, the LP slowly filling and winds moderating over the following week. Not until Sat 4th does the HP build back properly from Iceland to cover Britain implying calm and sunny weather.

ECM - begins to differ from GFS after Tue 23rd as the HP moves W, not N, and settles in mid Atlantic allowing LP to run S-wards from Iceland to East Anglia 1000mb Sat/Sun 27th/28th implying less settled weather for Britain as a whole, not just England.

GEFS - briefly near norm then cold for several days from Sun 21st (deferred in Scotland until Wed 24th) with temps 5-7C below norm, only slowly recovering to norm by Wed 1st with quite good ens agreement throughout. Dry at first, more rain in various ens members from Sat 27th

 

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If the situation ever escalated to a full scale nuclear war of course, that would probably certainly have a massive effect on our weather although I doubt that any of us would actually be around afterwards to be able to see that, let alone record or investigate that.

Indeed , but what if short of the full nuclear option?

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If the situation ever escalated to a full scale nuclear war of course, that would probably certainly have a massive effect on our weather although I doubt that any of us would actually be around afterwards to be able to see that, let alone record or investigate that.

Indeed , but what if short of the full nuclear option?

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Indeed , but what if short of the full nuclear option?

I would imagine that there would still be quite a massive effect on our weather anyway which would increase the further up the scale with that particular war which we went.

Of course, wars are something which no sensible human being wants to see and the sensible ones amongst us would certainly not want to be seeing any major wars but this is something which does sadly happen and it would certainly be worth investigating the effect of that on our weather if we are able to do so.

The most recent examples of major wars which were fought in the past which I can think of are the two world wars which were fought during the first half of the 20th century.

I'm sure that there are probably some climatological records which give some form of indication of what our weather was like during those wars and so it would interesting to see whether or not it would be possible from that to predict what the weather might have been like had we living in more peaceful times back than and then comparing that with what the weather was actually like back then.

That would at least give us a fair idea of what the effect of a major war on our weather might be like.

 

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And oh look, several days of north easterlies for this SE quarter as high pressure park itself at the wrong place. Always seem to happen at this time of the year every time. Looks like several days of suppressed temperatures at this end, just have to hope it ends up being bright and dry with not too much in the way of North Sea gunk coming our way. Seems SW England, Ireland and W Scotland may be best. 

My heart sank when the prospect of another spell of NE winds appeared in the MO a few days ago. I'm hoping that it won't be as bad as last year when we had six weeks of unbroken relentless blustery cold NE winds day and night with heavy low cloud, while the NW highlands of Scotland basked in blue skies and warm sunshine. At least this time it only looks like lasting for a couple of weeks.

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Succinct version:

Garbage

And remains garbage. Any hopes of a prolonged settled spell appear to have been wiped away. A few days of drier cool weather, then back to unsettled 

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My heart sank when the prospect of another spell of NE winds appeared in the MO a few days ago. I'm hoping that it won't be as bad as last year when we had six weeks of unbroken relentless blustery cold NE winds day and night with heavy low cloud, while the NW highlands of Scotland basked in blue skies and warm sunshine. At least this time it only looks like lasting for a couple of weeks.

I've been keeping quiet, but it does look like we're going to see the holy grail of a decently long colder-than-average spell down here. Very unusual of course at any time of year, but cold and dry is even more unusual at this time of year.

It's been very pleasant indeed the past couple of days, and will doubtless remain so: a refreshing breeze, plenty of sunshine and just the odd bit of rain. I expect to see plenty of red lobsters out and about this weekend. (As the UV index remains around 5, but for whatever reason people seem to think if it feels a bit nippy then the sun is completely harmless. More fool them!)

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And remains garbage. Any hopes of a prolonged settled spell appear to have been wiped away. A few days of drier cool weather, then back to unsettled 

This week failed to be settled down as HP supposed to be in today onward after a sunny start then again rain this afternoon totally not expected from no where.   I rather have the once in a life time severe storm in here like UAE then knowing it back to settled sunny business asap.  

Met office headline from a couple of days ago ‘Finally good news for everyone’ themed article was a nice surprise, but in reality just a drier break from the endless November with below average temperatures, lots of cloud and biting winds before yet more soakings to follow next week. 
At least last years spring north easterly was dry. 
We’re probably looking at well into the first half of May before recording 20 degrees on the south coast. Just astonishing really in these ‘modern times’.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 



 

Well the much heralded cold (since late January) has arrived.  Hopefully the start of May will see a warm up.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

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Well the much heralded cold (since late January) has arrived.  Hopefully the start of May will see a warm up.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 

With strong NE winds we should expect lot of sunny weather after early cloudy starts despite the cold temps.  That very low for London for last 3rd of April.   I am sure the METO will still come up claiming that so called false above average CET for April.   This month for sure is extreme below averasge even for London according to the ensembles set.

WX temp summary keeps the cool/cold weather over W Europe generally for week 1. For week 2 something much warmer moves in from the Black Sea to the Danube Basin and Poland, shrinking the freezing area further north but having little effect on western areas including Britain, France and Spain. Rain matching the temp pattern, week 1 generally from Germany and the Alps eastwards, in week 2 over the named Atlantic countries. 

GFS Op - HP moving to be centred over Britain for the weekend and staying close until Wed 24th though N-lies for N Sea coasts. Then a general fall of pressure over the NE Atlantic resolving into shallow LP (1005mb) traversing the British Isles from the Hebrides Sat 27th and on to Spain Tue 30th. Then another shallow LP following the same sort of track though further W, from Iceland Tue 30th past Ireland to Portugal Thu 2nd. Pressure than rises from the SW and NE to place Britain under a strong ridge 1020mb Sun 5th - perhaps still some NE-lies for N Sea coasts.

ECM - similar to GFS but the first of the LPs tracking N to S does so west of Ireland rather than over C Britain so winds from more of  a S-ly (warmer?) point.

GEFS - becoming cold, 7 or 8C below norm in the S on Tue 23rd but dry until then; slow improvement in temp regaining norm by Wed 1st and during this period small but frequent amounts of rainfall. Good ens agreement for an unusually long time. Scotland and far N of England have a brief milder period around the 23rd with a little rain before the cooler period begins; then as the temp slowly rises, a few dry days before some ens members show heavy falls of rain though most remain dry. ECM ensembles similar

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WX temp summary keeps the cool/cold weather over W Europe generally for week 1. For week 2 something much warmer moves in from the Black Sea to the Danube Basin and Poland, shrinking the freezing area further north but having little effect on western areas including Britain, France and Spain. Rain matching the temp pattern, week 1 generally from Germany and the Alps eastwards, in week 2 over the named Atlantic countries. 

Not often these days that you get blue temperature anomalies across almost the whole of Europe 

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With strong NE winds we should expect lot of sunny weather after early cloudy starts despite the cold temps.  That very low for London for last 3rd of April.   I am sure the METO will still come up claiming that so called false above average CET for April.   This month for sure is extreme below averasge even for London according to the ensembles set.

I'm hoping we get the crap weather out the way now and a glorious summer awaits, but we know it doesn't work like that.
 

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