Perhaps won't happen at all or if does will be not enough recovery to restore to normal state which require severeal months so not possible anymre with the stupid global warming making UK climate more colder, wetter and duller than average.

You really shouldn't have moved north... it's been another dry day down here, washing dried and the lawns mowed in the sunshine - before it got too strong.

And the UK's climate is getting warmer, of course, not colder, as the lack of snow and repeated heat records show... YOUR view of it is colder, as you're comparing it to the SE. 😉

Anyway, the models continue to show high pressure having more of an influence... at this rate, could well be a drier than average month quite widely down here (turns out the 7mm from the storms the other day was very localised, less than a mm just a few miles east or west).

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You really shouldn't have moved north... it's been another dry day down here, washing dried and the lawns mowed in the sunshine - before it got too strong.

And the UK's climate is getting warmer, of course, not colder, as the lack of snow and repeated heat records show... YOUR view of it is colder, as you're comparing it to the SE. 😉

Anyway, the models continue to show high pressure having more of an influence... at this rate, could well be a drier than average month quite widely down here (turns out the 7mm from the storms the other day was very localised, less than a mm just a few miles east or west).

No difference from here to the south coast as I read alot on NW south coast posters also saying how duller, colder and wetter as everywhere in the UK.  Only get warmer with false warm night temps to use to cheat and claim UK getting warmer when actually not true.  

No difference from here to the south coast as I read alot on NW south coast posters also saying how duller, colder and wetter as everywhere in the UK.  Only get warmer with false warm night tmeps to use to cheat and claim UK getting warmer when actually not true.  

I don’t live in the South, I’m East Midlands and we’ve had some days in the high teens recently, up to 19c.  Yes we’ve had mild nights too, no frosts for quite a while.  So I certainly wouldn’t say it’s been colder here.

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The last 7 months or so, starting with that remarkable heatwave in September, have been staggeringly warm. There can't be many warmer like for like periods in the record .
But it's been accompanied mostly by abnormally grey skies and high rainfall plus a lack of individual very warm days which makes it much less noticed and tabloid friendly ! 
 

WX temps continue the theme of a lobe of cooler air pushing south between something warmer moving north, both to the west (over Spain) and east (over the Caspian). The difference from yesterday is that this 'lobe', currently over Germany/ Poland moves westwards in week 2 to affect Britain/ France/  Germany, rather than eastwards. To match this, the warmth in Spain makes no progress but east of the Caspian it is insanely hot for April. The Atlantic and nearby areas are fairly dry (bar N Scotland) and the the Caspian area extremely dry. In between there are patches of rain over various parts of continental Europe with the heaviest in week 2 in S France.

GFS Op - Current HP over France moves W to mid-Atlantic with wind direction for Britain going round from SW to W to NW to N by Wed 17th. Pressure remains high to the W of Britain through to Wed 24th while LP develops over Belarus, so some chilly winds off the N Sea. The HP then retreats to Greenland and an extended trough develops from Norway to S France between that and HP intensifying over Russia. Hence strong NE-lies for all of Britain after the 24th.

ECM - begins to differ from GFS at the end of its run with HP after Wed 17th moving in from the Atlantic, rather than standing off,  to become centred 1035mb Irish Sea Sun 21st, and significantly deeper LP over Belarus.

GEFS - temps dropping sharply from mild to cool Sun 14th (min ca 4C below norm on 17th), and only recovering slowly, slower than shown yesterday and indeed the mean never quite gets above norm through to Sun 27th. At that time the op run is coldest and about 8C below norm, and supported also by the control run in the N. Dry for the most part throughout the period esp in SW, occasional small rainfall peaks further N and W.

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Is it spring yet?

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2024041100/gfs-2-312.png?0 

Looks like April 1981 all over again.

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You really shouldn't have moved north... it's been another dry day down here, washing dried and the lawns mowed in the sunshine - before it got too strong.

And the UK's climate is getting warmer, of course, not colder, as the lack of snow and repeated heat records show... YOUR view of it is colder, as you're comparing it to the SE. 😉

Anyway, the models continue to show high pressure having more of an influence... at this rate, could well be a drier than average month quite widely down here (turns out the 7mm from the storms the other day was very localised, less than a mm just a few miles east or west).

Must be a localised thing for Kent as we're already approaching the monthly rainfall average here. Temperature wise it's been fairly nondescript for April.. some chilly nights but a couple of warm days in the mix. Sunshine has been lacking just like most of the year so far.

Hows the back loaded winter going?

Any chance of lowland southern england snow?

or is everything still day 10?
 

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Hows the back loaded winter going?

Any chance of lowland southern england snow?

or is everything still day 10?
 

Did you somehow forget to hit ‘Post’ when you were last here 3 weeks ago?

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Finally seeing some solid support for a switch to a colder and drier pattern after 9 months of this awful mild and extremely wet pattern we have been stuck in.

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Did you somehow forget to hit ‘Post’ when you were last here 3 weeks ago?

It snowed 3 years to the day ,today.

Whats the issue?

April is the snowiest month in southern england

Winter only ended march 21 😉
 

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Finally seeing some solid support for a switch to a colder and drier pattern after 9 months of this awful mild and extremely wet pattern we have been stuck in.

👍👍👍

Certainly not before time either. The wet period we have had since last summer/autumn has at times been like 2012 all over again, and the very wet period we had then lasted a similar length of time from what I remember.

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A dry spell now may just come in time for some farmers.  Over the past few days, we have finally seen flooded fields starting to dry out.

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Still dull and not at all spring like on the south coast. Seems like we’re stuck in a forever November. Very wet, often windy, the sun only appears for brief spells, lots of low cloud and mist. 
Still holding out for the first high teens Celsius, let alone 20!
pretty astonishing for mid April in these ‘modern times’.
And the Beeb long ranger alludes to an unusual polar vortex. 
 

WX temp summary: after a few days in which a broad area of cooler weather has pushed well south across NW Europe, there is some relaxation. Week 1 as before with that cooler weather in place, and some warmth to east and west of it; week 2 milder weather begins an advance from the SE on a broad front, albeit modest and patchy, reaching Austria and Poland. Spain is cooler but the Caspian still ridiculously hot. Rainfall over much of Europe in week 1, Spain and England excepted; in week 2 the focus is on France and the western Med, some spilling over into England while Scotland is drier. (The rather cold weather noted under GEFS later on does not show up distinctly , Britain just staying cool)

GFS Op - as yesterday, HP over France moving out into the Atlantic with winds backing from SW round to N by Wed 17th with Britain on the edge of LP covering much of NW Europe. The Atlantic HP then moves E-wards across Britain to cover all but the far NE 1020mb Sat 20th but declines leaving Britain in a col between LPs in Baltic and Biscay. The Baltic end of this trough takes over, at first projecting NE-lies into Britain and then moving SW-wards to reach Holland 1005mb Fri 26th and sticking their with its imported cooler air affecting England while HP south of Iceland offers fine weather for Scotland.

ECM - something like GFS until Wed 17th though the concluding N-lies for this period are stronger under the influence of a better-defined LP moving from Faeroes to Denmark Mon 15th/Tue 16th. The subsequent HP remains further to the west of Britain to Sat 20th with a N-ly cast to the weather, and only at end of run Mon 22nd does the HP begin to move E-wards with the LP then setting up over Ukraine rather than the Baltic.

GEFS - mild dropping to cool Sun 14th and slowly recovering to just below norm in the SE Sat 20th even somewhat above elsewhere, esp in the N, after which the modest amount of agreement between ens members disappears. The mean then stays a couple of degrees below norm throughout. By Fri 26th both op and control are the coldest at about 7C below having been milder earlier. Small amounts of rain at any time generally.

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Had a quick check of the models for the first time in around a week or so. Still absolute garbage right out to the extremities. Not as wet at times, admittedly, but nothing remotely warm or particularly settled 

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Had a quick check of the models for the first time in around a week or so. Still absolute garbage right out to the extremities. Not as wet at times, admittedly, but nothing remotely warm or particularly settled 

This is heading for this dull wet and static temps climate we having now with no variety or seasonal weather days anymore. 

Had a quick check of the models for the first time in around a week or so. Still absolute garbage right out to the extremities. Not as wet at times, admittedly, but nothing remotely warm or particularly settled 

Each of GFS, ECM & GEM are showing high pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles from around the middle of next week. This has been a pretty persistent signal in the models for several days that has firmed-up as we've got closer.

All are now showing the high locating to the west of/over Ireland and remaining around there for at least a week.

It's going to be cool, with a flow from the north - but not a 'screaming cold northerly'. And hey, it's mid-April, so I couldn't give a monkeys if it's chilly. And it's going to be less settled the further east in the country you are, with the North Sea coasts likely not faring particularly well. 

But for you (and me! 😀) and the rest of the western half of the UK plus most of the South (away from EA/the far SE) the weather will likely be mostly settled.

 

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Each of GFS, ECM & GEM are showing high pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles from around the middle of next week. This has been a pretty persistent signal in the models for several days that has firmed-up as we've got closer.

All are now showing the high locating to the west of/over Ireland and remaining around there for at least a week.

It's going to be cool, with a flow from the north - but not a 'screaming cold northerly'. And hey, it's mid-April, so I couldn't give a monkeys if it's chilly. And it's going to be less settled the further east in the country you are, with the North Sea coasts likely not faring particularly well. 

But for you (and me! 😀) and the rest of the western half of the UK plus most of the South (away from EA/the far SE) the weather will likely be mostly settled.

 

Succinct version:

Garbage

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Succinct version:

Garbage

More accurately: Settled

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