Each of GFS, ECM & GEM are showing high pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles from around the middle of next week. This has been a pretty persistent signal in the models for several days that has firmed-up as we've got closer.

All are now showing the high locating to the west of/over Ireland and remaining around there for at least a week.

It's going to be cool, with a flow from the north - but not a 'screaming cold northerly'. And hey, it's mid-April, so I couldn't give a monkeys if it's chilly. And it's going to be less settled the further east in the country you are, with the North Sea coasts likely not faring particularly well. 

But for you (and me! 😀) and the rest of the western half of the UK plus most of the South (away from EA/the far SE) the weather will likely be mostly settled.

 

Whilst not perfect, for the first time for months there are consecutive dry days indicated!

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Whilst not perfect, for the first time for months there are consecutive dry days indicated!

Fingers crossed it all drifts westward nearer the time, as it did all winter.

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Fingers crossed it all drifts westward nearer the time, as it did all winter.

Don't you mean 'eastwards'?

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WX temps start in week 1 with a modest advance of milder weather N-wards from the Mediterranean, up to the line of the Alps, but in week 2 this switches to an advance from the SE, the Danube basin and Ukraine warm, milder weather reaching the eastern Baltic, but Britain and NW Europe remaining cool, indeed below norm for the time of year. Rain generally over continental Europe in week 1, Britain except N Scotland dry; in week 2 rain returns to Britain along with France and N Sea countries, dry in E Europe.

GFS Op - LP near Iceland runs past NE Scotland into the N Sea Mon/Tue while the HP over France moves first into the Atlantic and then back over Britain 1020mb Sat 20th. LP over Scandinavia then deepens, extends a trough across Britain which then deepens into distinct LP 985mb S Ireland Wed 24th. This fills and moves north with HP arriving rather uncertainly from the south by Sun 28th.

ECM - similar to GFS until Sat 20th but then the HP intensifies; instead of LP and a trough from Scandinavia there is HP and a ridge up to 1030mb over Britain Tue 23rd (end of run). Could scarcely be more different! Any LP is banished to Poland.

GEFS - temps dropping to cool Sunday, staying there to Fri 19th, then a few days when the temp is back to norm all with good ens agreement. From Tue 23rd in the S, a day or two earlier in the N, the mean with the majority of ens members drops to and stays at 2 or 3C below norm (op & control amongst the coldest runs). Not very much rain, some in the near future in Scotland, generally increasing a little after 23rd. 

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ECM drifts the high over the UK, then to the north of Scandinavia (ridging SW'wards over the UK). 

GEM has the high meandering around to the west and over the UK

GFS retrogresses to form a huge Greenland High 🤣

Both ECM and GFS evolutions would have been great in January!

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After 3 days in the 20s here, it looks like a protracted spell of below average temperatures but mainly dry at least. The ground here is already drying out quickly.

 

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WX temp charts show Spring still on hold for W Europe. The modest advance of mild weather from the south shown yesterday stalls when it begins to get north of the Mediterranean and if anything retreats in the area of the Alps and Spain (still very warm east of the Black Sea). Although the freezing area in the far N does decrease, W Europe is a degree or two below norm and stays that way. The rainfall pattern has changed since yesterday, with rain mainly absent from Britain in both weeks, instead in Germany and the Balkans week 1, Italy and Poland in week 2.

GFS Op - HP moving from France to N Atlantic as LP slides SE-wards into the N Sea Mon/Tue and on to C Europe. The Atlantic HP hangs around off W Britain (so weak N-lies) until Fri 19th when it moves closer, 1035mb Bristol Sun 21st. It continues to dominate British weather for the following week, though always threatening to move back to the Atlantic with cool weather off the N Sea for the east, finally collapsing and allowing LP 1010mb to drift S-wards across Britain Sun 28th.

ECM - similar to GFS though (i) LP on Mon/Tue is closer to NE Britain with stronger NW-lies generally (ii) after Sun 21st the HP develops as a narrow ridge from the Atlantic across Britain to Norway with  more of an E-ly influence for England.

GEFS - Cool now, just a hint of near-normal around Sat 20th, then mean stays a degree or two below norm throughout with moderate agreement between ens members. Mostly dry, small amounts of rain now and then (e.g. showers in the NW today), more rain appearing in a few ens members after Thu 25th. 

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Don't you mean 'eastwards'?

Yes!

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The WX chart which shows the anomaly for week has a sharp difference between W Europe, say 4 to 6 C below norm all the way down to the Balkans, and east of the Urals, say 4 to 6C above all the way down to Syria. Britain is on the edge of the cold area. In week 2 milder air begins to work north from the Mediterranean but makes very little progress with Britain and esp Scotland still cool. Rain in week 1 over continental Europe, Britain and the far west mostly dry; in week 2 most of the rain is in Ireland, N Spain, S France and N Italy. 

GFS Op - LP running SE down to Denmark 990mb by tomorrow albeit closer than shown yesterday, eventually losing itself over Belarus. HP then developing W of Ireland, its progress delayed by another LP running SE on Fri 19th but not so close as the present one (BBC shows it nearer Britain than GFS). By Sunday 21st the HP has reached Wales 1030mb. On Wed 24th the HP has collapsed and Britain comes under the influence of LP from Scandinavia which becomes ensconced over Britain through to Wed 1st, mostly shallow but with local centres popping up near the W or SW.

ECM - similar to GFS but shows LP more widely over continental Europe from Mon 22nd and consequently stronger E/NE winds over S England at that time

GEFS - cool now, close to norm for a few days from Sun 21st, then cool, even cold ca 5C below norm, again until Wed 1st. Some variation in ens members from the 21st but closing up again after that. Dry Fri 19th to Tue 23rd but otherwise small amounts of rain in one run or another throughout. 

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After today it looks dry for the foreseeable. Can it really be?

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After today it looks dry for the foreseeable. Can it really be?

Think you might have spoken too soon. 😂 At least going by the past couple of GFS runs. Even the ECM puts my corner of the world under a cold and damp north east airflow. 

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GFS keeps going with the HLB theme as we move into FI. with the sort of a GH that would be great in Dec/Jan

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WX temps - warmth in Spain and around the Black Sea in both weeks, and the freezing area to the far N really shrinking in this time, but none of this shifts the block of cool weather affecting W Europe, several degrees below norm, with Britain also cool though not so marked. Rain in various areas from Germany eastwards in week 1, moving S in week 2 to Portugal, France and Belarus, with S England just on the edge of the wet area.

GFS Op - HP very gradually moving into Britain from the W, finally 1030mb covering the country Sun 21st; until then LP generally near the Baltic keeps winds in the N especially on N Sea coasts. The Baltic LP then has another go, 1000mb N Sea appearing Wed 24th with HP retreating to the Atlantic and  only returning to NW Britain Sun 28th. The final chart, Thu 2nd, has HP well settled over Scotland but pressure has dropped over S France to produce quite strong E-lies for England.

ECM - similar to GFS though that Baltic LP stays on the other side of the N Sea and pressure remains quite high over Britain Wed 24th.

GEFS - temps rising from cool now to norm or a little above for a few days from Sun 21st; then mean drops away a little (op & control amongst the cooler ens members here) and finally recovers to norm approaching Thu 2nd. A few outliers on the mild side now and then, and a few colder ones around the 23rd, but most ens members not far from mean. Dry around 21st, small amounts of rain in some ens members later.

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This New Scientist piece might be of interest to posters on this Model; Output Thread. Hope I'm right. Id not, feel free to move it. 🙂
"Traditional economics makes ludicrous assumptions and poor predictions. Now an alternative approach using big data and psychological insights is proving far more accurate... Economics is often lambasted for being a pseudoscience, with dense mathematical formulae that belie its subjectivity and a poor track record of making accurate predictions. J. Doyne Farmer thinks we can do better. In his new book, Making Sense of Chaos, he unpicks why standard economic approaches often fail – and presents a radical alternative. Complexity economics, as it is called, treats economies as systems akin to natural ecosystems or Earth’s climate. Giant computer simulations based on these ideas offer a better representation of how billions of people interact within the global economy
The man reinventing economics with chaos theory and complexity science
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg26234870-200-the-man-reinventing-economics-with-chaos-theory-and-complexity-science/ 

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Can’t read it without subscription Roger.  

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Can’t read it without subscription Roger.  

Works for me, but I use an addin that makes sites like that think I'm Google. (If companies want to serve the full thing to Google but not to anyone else, so be it - at least it's easy to circumvent!)

You can read it here, FWIW. Archive.is also pretends to be Google, so can get the full thing!

https://archive.is/uSBeq 

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WX temps still much the same prediction as yesterday with warmth in Spain across the Med to (especially) the Black Sea making painfully slow progress N-wards, even though the actual freezing area in the far N is decreasing. W Europe is well below norm for Spring and Britain on the edge of this area. Rain also as yesterday, week 1 in Germany and points east of there, in week 2 changing to a band through N Spain and France to Poland just missing S Britain.

GFS Op - HP from Atlantic creeping closer to Britain but not really arriving until the weekend while LP over Scandinavia keeps N-lies running down the NSea. Over the following week this intensifies towards Iceland while LP shifts down to S France keeping cool weather with E-lies for the south of Britain. On Sun 28th what seems to be a semi-permanent area of LP over Scandinavia projects a trough over England 1000mb East Anglia before withdrawing as HP feeds in again from the SW.

ECM - similar to GFS though early on (Fri 19th) LP is closer to NE Scotland and later on (Fri 26th) the LP over France is less developed so E-lies weaker for the south.

GEFS - a day of mild weather Fri 19th (and in Scotland a couple of days again around the 23rd) then consistently cool, even cold with temps 5 or 6C below norm for a long period, only slowly rising to norm by Fri 3rd all with good ens agreement. Mostly dry, though one or two ens members have occasional spikes of heavy rain in the SE after Fri 26th. 

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Can’t read it without subscription Roger.  

Sorry! Try this link to a preview instead, Caz...
"In Making Sense of Chaos one of INET Oxford's most influential scientists, J. Doyne Farmer, tackles these questions and more. Introducing the new field of complexity economics, he describes how rebellious economists and other scientists are revolutionising our ability to predict the economy, developing new approaches to global problems – like climate change, inequality, and the devastating impact of financial crises, which hit the poorest hardest."
https://www.inet.ox.ac.uk/news/making-sense-of-chaos-a-better-economics-for-a-better-world 
 

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And oh look, several days of north easterlies for this SE quarter as high pressure park itself at the wrong place. Always seem to happen at this time of the year every time. Looks like several days of suppressed temperatures at this end, just have to hope it ends up being bright and dry with not too much in the way of North Sea gunk coming our way. Seems SW England, Ireland and W Scotland may be best. 

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Even though the weather still looks predominantly dry this weekend and beyond, subtle changes to the HP positioning have resulted in quite a downgrade in temperatures for this weekend for Eastern Britain. Yesterday the BBC were still bullish about seeing 17C in sunnier spots around London but it is looking closer to 12C now with tomorrow and Friday being the milder days. I expect it will still feel pleasant enough in any sunshine but frost risks will increase.

Western Britain is looking milder, especially Northern Ireland on Sunday.  

EDIT: Just seen Ian's post on a similar theme above!!

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