Well, the Euro-cooling in full swing this morning. This below av. spell set for the foreseeable. 

Looks like we might only scrape a 15c max first week of May ..and that’s the south east!!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=202&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 

Indeed, no sign for now of days of Jiriean splendour when sheds reach 45C and it's pleasant sitting out in the garden at the end of the day. Without a jacket or thick fleece.

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Poor output for warm weather fans that's for sure. Had to put the heating on this morning first time in 6 weeks.
 

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WX temps - there was a brief flicker of hope last night when the evening charts showed mild weather spreading into Europe from the east. But this morning, it's back to square one, the whole of Europe bar the Russian edge under the blue negative anomaly in week 1 (a rare event as GezM pointed out), and as much as 10C below in S Germany. There's very little improvement in week 2, just something a bit milder creeping in to Romania and Poland. Rain in week 1 from Balkans to Baltic, and quite general across Europe in week 2 with the heaviest over the Alps. Combined with the temp prediction, there could be disruptive snow there at not very high levels.
(EDIT - GEFS for Zermatt, 1600m asl, for May 1st, many runs showing 10-25 mm rain or snow equivalent, temp 0-3C
https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gefs-charts-selected.aspx?loc=5-Seenweg,%203920%20Zermatt,%20Switzerland&lat_5=46&lon_5=8 )

GFS Op - current HP only stays for the weekend, moving to Iceland Tue 23rd and then to mid Atlantic. This allows LP first over the Baltic, but by Tue 30th over Germany to bring cold air across Britain on light but persistent NE-lies. On Thu 2nd LP develops near Iceland, to cover Britain 1000mb on the Friday, and then to France with colder and stronger NE-lies for England - just a hint of something better for NW Scotland.

JET - making pretty loops over the N Atlantic but the only coherent stream is over the Sahara from Thu 25th, becoming quite strong as it drifts N-wards and lies along the N African coast. That pattern must also be rare.

ECM - slower by a day or two to bring in NE-lies, but then the advent of cold air generates separate  LP over SW Britain 995mb Sat 27th moving north to  the Irish Sea Tue 30th while (unlike GFS) pressure rises over Germany.

GEFS - cool/cold say 7 or 8C below norm from now for England, but Scotland gets a couple of milder days first,  rising steadily to norm by Thu 2nd after which mean stays near norm but with less ens agreement. Rain from Sat 27th likely to be noticeable for a few days, smaller amounts after Thu 2nd in the S but persisting in Scotland
 

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Poor output for warm weather fans that's for sure. Had to put the heating on this morning first time in 6 weeks.
 

Yes me too. Perfect set up for January - but as seems to be the way of things these days, January sees a roaring Atlantic influence and the Arctic plunges happen when we want spring warmth.

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Well, the Euro-cooling in full swing this morning. This below av. spell set for the foreseeable. 

Looks like we might only scrape a 15c max first week of May ..and that’s the south east!!

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=202&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 

Don’t think it will last that severe cold for long time the models not realising is spring season so it will be brute forced to show warmth sooner than later on later runs.

Don’t think it will last that severe cold for long time the models not realising is spring season so it will be brute forced to show warmth sooner than later on later runs.

Is there any point in me saying that’s not how these things work? My guess would be, no.

Yes the output looks chilly but at least it’s not overly wet following on from the first half of spring (and indeed before then). 

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Don’t think it will last that severe cold for long time the models not realising is spring season so it will be brute forced to show warmth sooner than later on later runs.

👍

absolutely stunning day today, albeit cool. As others have mentioned - absolutely no sign of anything particularly warm on the horizon 

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👍

absolutely stunning day today, albeit cool. As others have mentioned - absolutely no sign of anything particularly warm on the horizon 

Its going to feel warm in the much higher sun regardless of the air temp. The sun doesn't heat the air, but it does warm surfaces and your skin. 

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Poor output for warm weather fans that's for sure. Had to put the heating on this morning first time in 6 weeks.
 

Ours not been off since last October at some point in the day and we only have the thermostat low at 20.5C.

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I’m not sure what’s worse a total lack of understanding or giving it the thumbs up. 🤣 It does provide entertainment though so that’s something.

One good thing about this time point of the year is that even with cool temperatures things can feel pleasant enough in the sunshine and light winds. It’s just a pity that we have neither much of the time. 

I’m convinced that there has been a significant decrease in the prevalence of SWly winds in the last few years and this is modelled to continue. I wonder if there is a data set available that would show whether this is just my perception. Is it a shift in the climate norm or just a “blip”?

And yes the heating is still coming on here almost every day with the thermostat set at 17.5°C

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Is there any point in me saying that’s not how these things work? My guess would be, no.

Yes the output looks chilly but at least it’s not overly wet following on from the first half of spring (and indeed before then). 

Cold and dry - worst Spring weather for gardeners.

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Cold and dry - worst Spring weather for gardeners.

Yes, I have had a few Facebook “memories” over the last few weeks and the garden is notably behind previous years for many of the flowers and plants and that’s without the drier weather! I don’t think the next few weeks may be much better.

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Ours not been off since last October at some point in the day and we only have the thermostat low at 20.5C.

We are lucky that our house gets and stays warm easily.  But today is bleak here cloudy and chilly.
 

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As ever, in this climate change era, the west is sunniest and the East cloudiest. This reversal of the norm has been common in the last ten years. I wonder if it is related to the Atlantic being warmer and the North Sea now the temperature the Atlantic used to be.

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Don’t think it will last that severe cold for long time the models not realising is spring season so it will be brute forced to show warmth sooner than later on later runs.

I like your optimism but I don’t think the models have been told it’s Spring!  

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I like your optimism but I don’t think the models have been told it’s Spring!  

😂

No, they just didn’t “listen”, but I’m sure they will soon come to understand how they are supposed to “behave” and “ignore” all that silly stuff like numerical data inputs. 

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As ever, in this climate change era, the west is sunniest and the East cloudiest. This reversal of the norm has been common in the last ten years. I wonder if it is related to the Atlantic being warmer and the North Sea now the temperature the Atlantic used to be.

I think the reality has always been that high pressure to our north or north-east is more common at this time of year and brings an easterly drift/wind off a chilly North Sea, making eastern counties cooler and cloudier whilst the western side sees lighter winds and more sunshine. As a cricketer and now umpire I have endured plenty of days like this during the early part of the cricket season.

Of course, warmer seas and more moisture will tend to increase the cloud amounts and the associated risk of drizzle or showers.

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I like your optimism but I don’t think the models have been told it’s Spring!  

Yes, a quick run through the latest output doesn’t inspire confidence in any decent warmer or settled weather does it?

As I sit here it’s the usual picture in this pattern: a beautiful, sunny start has given way to 100% overcast with just a little brightness.  It could pass for a winter’s day at the moment.

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Yes, it's the wrong way round.  Clear at night, cloudy by day.f that was reversed it would be ok. 

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