Is there a late Beast from the east on the way: The GFS Op 0Z says so, with widespread transitory spring snow-fall. Here’s a link to the pressure chart sequence. If only this were a month sooner!!
https://images.meteociel.fr/im/75/19249/animcki2.gif 

 

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WX charts keeping freezing weather across Scandinavia and most of Russia for both weeks but in week 2 there is an outflow of colder weather (though not freezing) across Europe north of the Alps including Britain. For spring warmth go to the shores of the Caspian. Rain in week 1 for S Britain, France, Spain and Italy, moving a little further S in week 2 and becoming heavy in most places for the Alps.

GFS Op - current LP becoming centred over Britain and not filling until Monday. New trough reaching N Ireland from the NW 985mb Tue 6th before retreating W-wards and setting up a situation with LP W of Ireland and HP Norway with these two systems rotating clockwise around each other so by Fri 8th HP 1030mb Iceland and LP 995mb Biscay with rather cold E-lies for Britain* persisting to Fri 5th when there is a general rise of pressure over Britain and W Europe.

ECM - similar to GFS; the HP rather more intense and the wind more SE-ly than E-ly

GEFS - mean temp mostly near norm, slightly cooler earlier, slightly warmer later, with ensemble agreement breaking down from Fri 8th (op v. cold Sun 10th, then persisting esp in the N, control v. mild Tue 12th). Rain persistent but randomly distributed throughout, only really heavy in the SW

* 6 weeks too late!

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Hoping we don’t get a BFTE on Wednesday, as we’re flying from Birmingham to Singapore.  I remember the BFTE on 1st March 2018 very well, as our flight from Birmingham to India was delayed. 🙄

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I think the general lack of interest in what in early Feb would be decent enough synoptics is understandable.
It really would take something special indeed to get sub -10s to our shores on an easterly in mid-March (has happened, but it's very rare).
But then again any snowfall down here at any time of the year is very rare these days so you can't be picky.

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Cold plunge looking to target central Europe which is very common in early mid March...some classic b&w footage of the Germans entering Prague in mid March 1939 in a snowstorm..

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I think the general lack of interest in what in early Feb would be decent enough synoptics is understandable.
It really would take something special indeed to get sub -10s to our shores on an easterly in mid-March (has happened, but it's very rare).
But then again any snowfall down here at any time of the year is very rare these days so you can't be picky.

totally agree. But nothing would surprise me about this weird record breaking winter!!

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WX charts keeping freezing weather from Norway and N Baltic E-wards into Russia for both weeks; by comparison with yesterday less outflow to keep Europe cool, that below 4C mostly associated with mountains and high level areas. Rain in week 1 for Britain, France, Spain and the northern fringe of the Med; in week 2 rain retreats from Britain and a very dry area develops for Europe north of the Alps, just about reaching eastern Britain.

GFS Op - current LP hangs around for the weekend and is reinforced by a trough from the Atlantic on Monday. From Wed 6th HP develops 1030mb N Norway while the trough on the Atlantic slides SE-wards to Spain. The HP and the trough (becoming a defined LP) stay more or less in these positions for a week with winds going round from SE to E. From Thu 14th the HP develops as a ridge from Norway to N Sea to Spain with LP held on the Atlantic and S-lies for Britain.

ECM - similar but the 'defined LP' is deeper and closer (990mb touching Cornwall from Sun 10th) with stronger and colder SE-lies

GEFS - mean temp close to norm throughout,  with quite good agreement until Sun 10th, but always with a distinct group of much colder ens members including the control run from the 10th. Small amounts of pptn from time to time in different runs. Less agreement on temps in Scotland with a larger number of cooler options leading to moderate chance of snow there, but not in quantity; much more rain for the SW.

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GFS6Z has a chunk of tropospheric polar vortex get underneath the deep warm core high. Its a promising setup.

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The outlook looks grim with persistent easterly muck for the foreseeable. Cool, grey, cloudy.

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The outlook looks grim with persistent easterly muck for the foreseeable. Cool, grey, cloudy.

Hopefully down here we can get more chance of clear skies
What a waste of a pattern though. A month too late. Typical UK
 

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Hopefully down here we can get more chance of clear skies
What a waste of a pattern though. A month too late. Typical UK
 

There are a couple of days with less cloud in the two week outlook for many parts of England based on the 06z op run. Overall though for most of the time as I said grey, cool and uninspiring.

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There are a couple of days with less cloud in the two week outlook for many parts of England based on the 06z op run. Overall though for most of the time as I said grey, cool and uninspiring.

Pretty much sums up British weather as a whole. Recently back after spending a month in Andalucia where even this time of year the skies are mainly blue, it really is quite depressing.  

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GFS6Z has a chunk of tropospheric polar vortex get underneath the deep warm core high. Its a promising setup.

Promising what? More cold rain?

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ECM looks prime for mid month cold - so annoying!

Surprised how quiet it is on here considering the latest output from most of the 12z models.
History tells us it's not so unusual to get a cold Easterly in early/mid March . The fat lady is on the stage but she's not singing yet .

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This Winter Dec Jan Feb that has gone by had so many multiple times with UKMO and GFS showing Cold Beast from the East winds, but the GFS and ECMWF often did not support it and on Thursday 29th Feb. and on Saturday 2nd March The 12z UKMO showed Beast from the East for March 7th and 8th.  On Gavs Weather Vids Model Forecast Discussions they appreciate my posts but Gavin has given me a separate section called daily model runs.  The previous round of getting me excited with UKMO showing heavy Snow very Cold was for 11th to 12th February 2024, but that was also changed to Milder weather with mixed weather regime taking over.  Western Southwest Central Europe today’s 12z ECMWF run showed the SE E tracking Low quite a deep large Low that also extends across much of North Atlantic Sea.  I hope everyone on here is doing ok.

Reminder Klaxon, Major SSW dip in PV winds on 7th and 8th March 2024.

Edit: A special long time Hi to Brian Gaze City Andy NSRobins DEW Doctormog Beast From The East and SevenDust etc!,👍😀🥶❄️.

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This Winter Dec Jan Feb that has gone by had so many multiple times with UKMO and GFS showing Cold Beast from the East winds, but the GFS and ECMWF often did not support it and on Thursday 29th Feb. and on Saturday 2nd March The 12z UKMO showed Beast from the East for March 7th and 8th.  On Gavs Weather Vids Model Forecast Discussions they appreciate my posts but Gavin has given me a separate section called daily model runs.  The previous round of getting me excited with UKMO showing heavy Snow very Cold was for 11th to 12th February 2024, but that was also changed to Milder weather with mixed weather regime taking over.  Western Southwest Central Europe today’s 12z ECMWF run showed the SE E tracking Low quite a deep large Low that also extends across much of North Atlantic Sea.  I hope everyone on here is doing ok.

Reminder Klaxon, Major SSW dip in PV winds on 7th and 8th March 2024.

Edit: A special long time Hi to Brian Gaze City Andy NSRobins DEW Doctormog Beast From The East and SevenDust etc!,👍😀🥶❄️.

We miss your posts LA2B: Come back to post on here - its always appreciated from me at least. Good post by the way. I think this last SSW will deliver from the resultant Scandi high being consistently modelled now across the models, but the exact orientation and alignment as it wobbles about is still to be nailed. The GFS 18z Op and ECM have this aligned at +240 ish for sub -10 Hpa air reaching Blighty. It’s no unknown.

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This Winter Dec Jan Feb that has gone by had so many multiple times with UKMO and GFS showing Cold Beast from the East winds, but the GFS and ECMWF often did not support it and on Thursday 29th Feb. and on Saturday 2nd March The 12z UKMO showed Beast from the East for March 7th and 8th.  On Gavs Weather Vids Model Forecast Discussions they appreciate my posts but Gavin has given me a separate section called daily model runs.  The previous round of getting me excited with UKMO showing heavy Snow very Cold was for 11th to 12th February 2024, but that was also changed to Milder weather with mixed weather regime taking over.  Western Southwest Central Europe today’s 12z ECMWF run showed the SE E tracking Low quite a deep large Low that also extends across much of North Atlantic Sea.  I hope everyone on here is doing ok.

Reminder Klaxon, Major SSW dip in PV winds on 7th and 8th March 2024.

Edit: A special long time Hi to Brian Gaze City Andy NSRobins DEW Doctormog Beast From The East and SevenDust etc!,👍😀🥶❄️.

In echo of BBlake, it is great to see you posting again, LA2B. 

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There are a couple of days with less cloud in the two week outlook for many parts of England based on the 06z op run. Overall though for most of the time as I said grey, cool and uninspiring.

The sooner we get March and April out of the way, the better. Woke up this morning to a house temp of only 12c downstairs. Coldest it has been all winter. Outside temps are very unremarkable but whatever is in that wind, it is penetrating into the walls. 

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Not a great deal of change for Britain in WX temp charts for the net two weeks, but in Europe a retreat of freezing weather from most of the Baltic in week 2, while the area down towards the Danube Basin *which has been unusually mild) gets colder. Some very warm weather showing up on the southern fringes of the map (Morocco, Syria) while the sea east of Iceland is colder. Rain through France, Spain and along the northern fringes of the Mediterranean in week 1, decreasing in week 2; Britain fairly dry but not quite as marked as yesterday.

GFS Op - LP now over Britain filling to be replaced by a series of troughs working their way past the SW into Biscay . 985mb Tue 5th Fastnet, and again 975mb Fri 8th, the latter working its way down into France turning the winds from SE or S earlier in the week into a full E-ly by Mon 11th. HP then develops 1030mb covering most of Britain until Sat 16th cutting off the E-ly, but drifting S and fading by Tue 19th with zonal flow and LP approaching NW Scotland.

ECM concurs

GEFS - mean temps near norm through the next fortnight but with steadily increasing spread of ens members (op has a rather cold few days around the 12th). Rain in some ens members now and then throughout though op and control rather dry; small amounts generally but heavy at times in W especially SW.

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