Not a great deal of change for Britain in WX temp charts for the net two weeks, but in Europe a retreat of freezing weather from most of the Baltic in week 2, while the area down towards the Danube Basin *which has been unusually mild) gets colder. Some very warm weather showing up on the southern fringes of the map (Morocco, Syria) while the sea east of Iceland is colder. Rain through France, Spain and along the northern fringes of the Mediterranean in week 1, decreasing in week 2; Britain fairly dry but not quite as marked as yesterday.

GFS Op - LP now over Britain filling to be replaced by a series of troughs working their way past the SW into Biscay . 985mb Tue 5th Fastnet, and again 975mb Fri 8th, the latter working its way down into France turning the winds from SE or S earlier in the week into a full E-ly by Mon 11th. HP then develops 1030mb covering most of Britain until Sat 16th cutting off the E-ly, but drifting S and fading by Tue 19th with zonal flow and LP approaching NW Scotland.

ECM concurs

GEFS - mean temps near norm through the next fortnight but with steadily increasing spread of ens members (op has a rather cold few days around the 12th). Rain in some ens members now and then throughout though op and control rather dry; small amounts generally but heavy at times in W especially SW.

Useful summary: the GFS OZ Op and control backs away from delivering sub -10 Hpa - and makes the cold advection quite transitory, but possibly a couple of dry and sunny day's with crisp mornings.

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First post for a while. Sitting back waiting to see if a worthwhile east, north easterly feed is going to affect the UK and still none the wiser. Made the mistake this morning of viewing the 0z Icon run first and thought we were in for a day of upgrades for cold wintry outlook. The 12z ecm det shows what still could be possible although the run implodes towards the end. Having said that how often if ever do the ecm t216 - t240 charts come off. 
Worth giving it another 3 to 4 days I think to see if we can squeeze something memorable out of this strat warming and reversal  for time period 10th to 20th March.  We shall see.
 

WX temp charts not withdrawing the freezing weather as much as shown yesterday, Still 'blue' from Norway and N Baltic eastwards through Russia, and still cool along the fringes of this including Britain. But the areas of cooler weather in continental Europe have diminished and something seriously warm is moving N from Africa to affect the N shores of the Mediterranean. Rain in week 1 for France, Spain and N Mediterranean, with Britain on the fringe of this area; in week 2 the rain moves north to affect Britain (esp W) , France and Norway. Anything really dry is week 1 and Scandinavia only as far as W Europe goes, less than previously shown.

GFS Op - LP in Atlantic spawning troughs and areas of LP pushing down towards Spain this week e.g. 995mb Galicia Fri 8th after which the area affected by LP aligns W-E across Britain 995mb Sun 10th. This main  LP then re-groups just W of Britain and associated centres run NE-wards affecting W Britain (980 mb Kerry Wed 13th, to 980 mb Hebrides; 990mb Kerry Fri 15th, 995mb Wales Mon 18th) with mostly SW-lies for the east.

ECM - introduces interval of weak HP Sun 10th (the potential trough is placed over Switzerland) before rejoining GFS with the NE-tracking LPs

GEFS - mean temps a little cooler at first and milder later but generally close to norm, good agreement from ens members to Tue 12th and not too much variation after that. A burst of rain today, then dry for a few days but most ens members showing rain at intervals after Sun 10th, for the S & W in greater amounts than yesterday, still fairly dry in N & E. . 
 

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First post for a while. Sitting back waiting to see if a worthwhile east, north easterly feed is going to affect the UK and still none the wiser. Made the mistake this morning of viewing the 0z Icon run first and thought we were in for a day of upgrades for cold wintry outlook. The 12z ecm det shows what still could be possible although the run implodes towards the end. Having said that how often if ever do the ecm t216 - t240 charts come off. 
Worth giving it another 3 to 4 days I think to see if we can squeeze something memorable out of this strat warming and reversal  for time period 10th to 20th March.  We shall see.
 

Yes - agree, its been the nearly model year for cold; with cold spells being modelled for  a while, often intermittently, by the flip-flop GFS and more consistently at times by the mermaid like ECM, but there’s always plenty of runs and perts deflecting any cold air somewhere else, (Shetland or Greece), and this SSW ship looks like it will go the same route as all the others, as if piloted by captain Pete Tong. We live in faint hope, straw in hand for the singing to start.

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The potential for further flooding looks more of a concern than a late season cold blast IMO. 

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The potential for further flooding looks more of a concern than a late season cold blast IMO. 

yes -
models backing away from any meaningful cold, although the pub run reintroduces a dry cool period with night frosts, but snow will be unlikely , but this seems to be a temporary dry spell, the consequence of the SSW event, before the relentless warm, wet and gloomy world
of climate change continues.  

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WX temp charts show freezing weather slowly retreating to the NE i.e. N Scandinavia and Russia but with a distinctly cool area over N Europe adjacent to this. Britain looks average to cool over the next two weeks. Heat shown yesterday for the southern Mediterranean has disappeared. Rain in week 1 for France, Spain and N Mediterranean with Britain on the fringe; the rain area breaks up in week 2 with Scandinavia and N Europe rather dry for both weeks.

GFS Op - current LP retreating to Atlantic but projecting a trough SE-wards 975mb Biscay Sat 10th while there is a modest rise of pressure over Scandinavia. By Thu 14th the LP has moved through to Ukraine and HP 1025mb is in place from France to Norway with Britain under S-lies on its edge. The HP moves E-wards allows weak troughs to reach Britain and then on Thu 21st the chart is a carbon copy of the chart from the 10th.

ECM - similar to GFS though the LP  from Biscay takes a N-ward loop across S Britain on its way to Ukraine.

GEFS - mean temps close to norm for two weeks, perhaps slightly cooler at first, good agreement between ens members until about 14th, and not too bad after that. Variable amounts of rain in different ens members, nothing dramatic, perhaps heavier later on in the south, rather more at all times in the SW, very little in the far E

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At least its benign and calm and no sign of storms. Perfect weather for small boat crossings, and a tail wind too! 🤣

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Good Morning.

Today’s 00z GFS update.  

Looking at the 00z GFS forecast it is showing nearer average temperatures from Sunday 10th to Saturday 16th including night of the 16th, Blocking High, after Chilly Low with NE winds exits on Sunday 10 and Monday 11th Mixed variation of temperatures tending to return near average but briefly less Cold for a time. Tuesday 12th Wednesday 13th West and NW UK turns Overcast with some rain and very mild SSW winds.  This seems to agree with the UKMO T168 situation of 12z of the 5th.
Deep Low over Central N Atlantic Sea with UK Europe Blocking High.
 

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[/quote LA2's signature]
 all 4 seasons feature lengthy long fetch mild SW flows sometimes with strong winds and heavy rain or settled dry sunny spells. or extremely heavy thundery showers or longer spells of Thundery rain in any Season in the UK.  And 2 year long droughts.

IMBY at least thundery activity has definitely decreased. My impression is that the pattern has altered, with fewer episodes of thundery weather originating in France moving up to affect the South Coast, and more home-grown activity in the Midlands and North.

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Good Morning.

Today’s 00z GFS update.  

Looking at the 00z GFS forecast it is showing nearer average temperatures from Sunday 10th to Saturday 16th including night of the 16th, Blocking High, after Chilly Low with NE winds exits on Sunday 10 and Monday 11th Mixed variation of temperatures tending to return near average but briefly less Cold for a time. Tuesday 12th Wednesday 13th West and NW UK turns Overcast with some rain and very mild SSW winds.  This seems to agree with the UKMO T168 situation of 12z of the 5th.
Deep Low over Central N Atlantic Sea with UK Europe Blocking High.
 

Yes - alignment now that the Scandi high will not advect anything cold in our direction (or any), but some welcome dry weather. I think that last flirtation with modelled sub -10 Hpa air not then verifying brings into sharp focus that loud singing from the curvaceous dame! Spring has sprung. Will we get an April polar express, as sometimes happens in the 1st week? I sincerely doubt it this year. It may be better odds to speculate just how hot the summer will be.

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WX maps - while the main area of freezing weather retreats slowly NE-wards over the next two weeks, with Britain and the Baltic definitely milder by week 2, a reminder that winter is not long departed as a significant area of ultra-cold re-appears over N Russia. Pptn in week 1 all through the N Mediterranean, plus the Atlantic; in week 2 for Atlantic, Turkey and Spain. A very dry area in E Europe in week 1 extending W-ward to Denmark and Germany in week 2, just about affecting E Britain.

GFS Op - Britain mainly under HP for the rest of this week, but troughs slipping past Cornwall to end up as LP Biscay 980mb Sat 9th Biscay with strong SE-ly flow setting in further north. This LP drifts N-wards and along the Channel Mon 11th before pressure rises to cover Britain and W Europe 1030mb Fri 15th. The Atlantic LP then revives somewhat to affect W Britain with HP declining and moving away SE, and another area of LP breaking off and sliding into Biscay 990mb Wed 20th.

ECM - similar until Wed 13th but HP fails to develop esp over Britain which by Fri 15th is more affected by large trough of shallow LP SW Ireland to Iceland

GEFS - mean temp near norm for the next 2 weeks, perhaps a little milder in  S  Mon 11th but cooler in N, then a little milder widely Sun 17th, perhaps a little cooler at other times, with no great spread of ens members. Some rain appearing in one or other of different ens members with no sense of pattern in the E - some runs remain dry - but heavier and more frequent in SW England - Wales - N Ireland. 

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Dew’s Comment

Yes I agree that you got some evidence to say that, I the reason I said that was how often in any Season away from the London Central many parts of the UK sometimes get loads of rain with some torrential falls some with thunder hail sleet and snow/lightning, current trending is mix of both a varied weather pattern all year with heavy showers and heavy rain often lasting for many months but sometimes we get some long dry spells lasting 2 or 3 months. This year River Reservoir and Pond levels lake water levels water table is highest matching with the wetter years but I can also say that Summer June July August rainfall has decreased overall, I can make a minor amendment in my signature information.

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I know not many bother checking this discussion.  But here I am adding a small briefing regarding the next week Weather forecast from 00z ECMWF update.

Monday Fairly Cool Cyclonic NW in the SW, NE winds E and SE with E winds in Scotland, chance of scattered showers, Cool.

 Tuesday fine dry Cool normal dry average temperatures some sunshine, light winds.

Wednesday Mild in the West, Strong South SW winds, Chilly normal temperatures North South over Central to E parts, light calm winds SE’ly.

Thursday East Central from N to S remains Average temperatures, Increasingly cloudy.  West areas more widely get Long fetch Overcast mild SSW winds with chance of rain and some showers.

Friday 15th will be very Mild Southerly winds quite cloudy weather, dry more likely.

 Saturday Very Similar to Friday 15, quite mild day and night SSW winds moderate.
 

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[/quote LA2's signature]
 all 4 seasons feature lengthy long fetch mild SW flows sometimes with strong winds and heavy rain or settled dry sunny spells. or extremely heavy thundery showers or longer spells of Thundery rain in any Season in the UK.  And 2 year long droughts.

IMBY at least thundery activity has definitely decreased. My impression is that the pattern has altered, with fewer episodes of thundery weather originating in France moving up to affect the South Coast, and more home-grown activity in the Midlands and North.

Yes def being a fellow South coaster  frequency of such activity is less than it was say 1960s 70s and often shorter lived 

3 SSW's in a season and barely a flake seen, puts that one to bed me thinks.

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3 SSW's in a season and barely a flake seen, puts that one to bed me thinks.

But it is just one variable amongst many.  I think dismissing a SSW is about the same as assuming it guarantees a severe cold spell.  We can get cold weather without a SSW and average or mild weather with a SSW.

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3 SSW's in a season and barely a flake seen, puts that one to bed me thinks.

Wasn't winter 2023-24 the fifth mildest on record in the UK? It's amazing how many people (not here) think it was average or even cold.

Edit: By CET I've got it at 4 not 5.

Place    Year    Value    Dec    Jan    Feb    1961-90    1971-00    1981-10    1991-20    1659-2020
1    1868    6.77    7.2    5.6    7.5    2.7    2.14    2.14    1.9    3
2    2015    6.73    9.6    5.5    5.1    2.66    2.1    2.1    1.86    2.96
3    1833    6.53    6.9    7.1    5.6    2.46    1.9    1.9    1.66    2.76
4    2023    6.5    7    4.7    7.8    2.43    1.87    1.87    1.63    2.73
 

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But it is just one variable amongst many.  I think dismissing a SSW is about the same as assuming it guarantees a severe cold spell.  We can get cold weather without a SSW and average or mild weather with a SSW.

Newly repeated hint of an end of March Arctic plunge on the 0Z GFS Op this morning. It has been known. Is this he SSW?
I remember 3 consecutive nightly snow falls in the last week of march in the 70s (‘75?). Sunny days saw +7 degrees and everything melted, but the night time snow falls were beautiful, with feathery sugar snow and - 2 degree temps. And that was Mid Sussex. Mind you that was +0.4 above pre-industrial levels, not + 1.5. 

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Newly repeated hint of an end of March Arctic plunge on the 0Z GFS Op this morning. It has been known. Is this he SSW?

In keeping with climatology. Northerlies are at their most common in late March through to late April. 

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