Cautiously optimistic for settled weather for at least between 9-12 May according to GFS, but still a long way off; it needs more consistent runs, and won't be surprised if next runs brings foul weather.

WX temp charts looking like yesterdays with, in week 1, milder and springlike weather moving across from the east, getting to Germany before being overtaken by much milder air coming up from the south into France. Britain milder, but anything that could be called warm staying the other side of the Channel. The compensating cold air noted yesterday moving S over eastern Europe is no longer there. Rain in week 1 from France (a little in S England) to the Balkans to Turkey; in week 2 still in France and also some in E Baltic; not as absolutely dry for Britain as shown yesterday.

GFS Op - complex LP at first over S Britain/N France, filling slowly (though with a short-lived revival 995mb Sun 5th Cornwall) and moving away by Wed 8th as HP takes over, building to 1025mb N Sea Sat 11th. LP 995mb appearing on the Atlantic Tue 14th, at first reinforcing the S-lies but gradually moving to Britain and forming a broad trough linked to LP N Norway by Thu 16th, NE-lies for Scotland, SW-lies for England.

ECM - similar to GFS; the Cornish LP is not a separate feature and the HP Sat 11th is present as a ridge from the Azores rather than a centre over the N Sea, with SW-lies for Scotland.

GEFS - temps descending to norm and staying there to Tue 7th with good ens agreement,  probably milder until Tue 14th but less agreed, then back to norm. Rain, in S to Tue 7th, in Scotland only at the end of this period , after which mostly dry until much later on and at that stage more likely in N. 

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Nice ECM this morning,  this is what we want to see. Just out of the reliable still though.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
 

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Nice ECM this morning,  this is what we want to see. Just out of the reliable still though.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref 
 

Even on the apps now showing decent temps of 19-21C next week only tomorrow down to 13C after today max ov 20C expected but jump back up to average then above average next week.   Let hope we see more of this pattern to persist over the summer months.

WX temps - NW Europe teetering on the edge of being mild, a few 'yellow areas' here and there. Week 2 shows more development; S Spain hot, Britain a little milder, cool area around the Baltic retreating and the 'blue area' almost gone from the far north. Rain in both weeks mainly over continental Europe, heavier in week 2; dry in Scandinavia with this dry area just about extending to Britain, esp the east.

GFS Op - current trough across C Britain becoming more localised as small LP 995mb forms off Cornwall Sun 5th, and all LP for Britain swept away by Wed 8th 1025mb over Britain (but large area of LP extending from W Russia to Alps). HP continues to be main influence for Britain to Mon 13th though slipping slowly E-wards, finally displaced by LP Rockall 990mb Tue 14th. The centre of this LP stays out to the NW but projects troughs across Britain until Sun 19th when Azores high moves in to link with HP which has persisted over N Norway.

ECM - similar to GFS though initial trough just fades away (no Cornish LP) 

GEFS - sharp drop to norm in S, less marked decline in N but then becoming mild everywhere (quite good agreement on 3 to 4C above norm by Mon 13th), mean declining slowly after that as agreement breaks up (op run esp pessimistic). Some rain in the S to Tue 7th, then mostly dry until Tue 14th when rain appears in most but not all runs, more so in N. 
 

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Short lived burst of ‘heat’ (average temps) next week followed by a return to dismal damp conditions that have plagued the entire UK spring. 

Perhaps June will deliver the first 20 degrees on the south coast of the year but the jury’s out with the broad scale pattern I.e. Scandy blocking just what we crave in Dec-Feb.

Quite astonishing in these ‘modern’ times. 
 

Short lived burst of ‘heat’ (average temps) next week followed by a return to dismal damp conditions that have plagued the entire UK spring. 

Perhaps June will deliver the first 20 degrees on the south coast of the year but the jury’s out with the broad scale pattern I.e. Scandy blocking just what we crave in Dec-Feb.

Quite astonishing in these ‘modern’ times. 
 

I think you may be incorrect on your statement, I would expect quite widely temps to reach above 20 degrees within the next week, to wipe out May within 4 days of the month starting is quite ridiculous, we will see.

WX temp - slow creep of warmer weather northwards, reaching C France and across to Hungary by week 2; Britain is little changed; the very cold weather around the E Baltic warms up but only just enough to remove the 'blue isotherms'. Generally wet over continental Europe in week 1 moving to E Europe in week2 though leaving an area over n Spain; britain dry becoming very dry in the S.

GFS Op - LP over Britain filling and HP developing by Wed 8th 1035mb Scotland (after the BH, natch!) this HP the main feature until  end (Mon 20th)  though around Fri 17th further W allowing LP Scandinavia to bring in some NW-lies before resuming.

ECM - to Sat 11th similar to GFS (I'm going out so haven't time to wait for later download; yesterdays'12z suggested a breakdown on the HP after Mon 13th)

GEFS - becoming mild and very dry around Sun 12th before back to norm and some chances of rain later esp in north.

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Short lived burst of ‘heat’ (average temps) next week followed by a return to dismal damp conditions that have plagued the entire UK spring. 

Perhaps June will deliver the first 20 degrees on the south coast of the year but the jury’s out with the broad scale pattern I.e. Scandy blocking just what we crave in Dec-Feb.

Quite astonishing in these ‘modern’ times. 
 

Met Office predicting temps of 21c here later in the week (and they tend to under do them a week out) - that's 3.5c above the May average (17.4c) - even today should be nicely above average.

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WX temp charts showing a steady progress of warmer weather northwards across Europe, even becoming quite hot in the Danube Basin. Britain is on the edge, between a warmer NW Europe and still quite a cool Scandinavia. Small amounts of rain in week 1 across Europe, Britain mainly dry; in week 2 heavier rain develops for France and Germany, also affecting S Britain.

GFS Op - current LP filling and moving away to C Europe by Tue, HP well in charge 1025mb covering Britain Wed 8th (perhaps some trailing weak fronts for N Scotland). This HP persists until Mon 13th when LP edges in from the Atlantic 1000mb off Cornwall Wed 15th moving slowly to France with HP over Scotland and E-lies for England. By Sun 19th the HP has dispersed and Britain is under a cooler shallow LP 1015mb before HP starts to build back from the SW.

ECM - similar to GFS though 'HP over Scotland' is less marked, more the edge of an Atlantic HP.

GEFS - a little rain at first, least in NW England, then good agreement on dry with rising temps to Mon 13th. After this some extreme variation in temp (in the S, from 15C above norm to the op at 6C below on Sat 18th) and sporadic rain in small amounts in most ens members but with one or two showing big totals. 

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WX charts; yesterday's northward advancing warmth put into reverse. Milder weather hangs on in parts of Europe (esp France and Hungary in week 1) but is pushed back SW-wards by rather cooler air from NW Russia affecting as far W as E France. Little change for Britain, on the edge of this - just about mild for week 1, cooler for Scotland in week 2. Small amounts of rain for most of Europe in week 1, then a dramatically large and dry area over Scandinavia and the N Sea in week 2 with rain all around its edge including Ireland and (mostly) W parts of UK.

GFS Op - pressure rising over Britain from tomorrow and well established 1025 mb Thu 9th, weakening but then re-establishing over a large area of the Norwegian Sea 1030mb through to Wed 22nd. For most of this time, the HP area is large enough to determine British weather, though Atlantic troughs keep approaching Ireland and falling back; but one of these is strong enough to run SE across Cornwall 990mb Tue 14th.

ECM - agrees with GFS to Mon 13th but the trough on the following day is a much broader affair and further east, overing the whole N Sea 1005mb by Thu 16th. Any HP is further N, near Svalbard, and by no means intense (1015mb)

GEFS - temps rising to warm by Mon13th, with good ens agreement, dropping back to norm (more slowly in N & E), ens members quite well bunched but with several warm outliers. Rain at first esp in S, then dry to the 13th (some in the NE on the 10th), after which rain present in many runs, more extensive than yesterday, heaviest in W. 

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The models doing their best f#%^ up what looked like a very settled week coming up after today. 

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Maybe the back loaded winter is finally turning up!

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Could you elaborate what you mean by a back loaded winter? Are you implying the weather  for the week ahead is showing winter type weather? 

Could you elaborate what you mean by a back loaded winter? Are you implying the weather  for the week ahead is showing winter type weather? 

I think it was tongue in cheek, but a fair comment in that Met office went hard sell on a cold winter late in the season. And this ‘spring’ has been cool by day, grey and very wet. 
Just spent the weekend camping in 11 degrees and soggy conditions, just dreadful for the first week of May. 
Euro cooling continues. 
 

WX temps warm/mild for Britain and France in week 1 but there's a large area of well-below average temps in W Russia and this is exported to cool down all of Europe away from the Med in week 2, even if the actual freezing area decreases. Dry around the Baltic in both weeks, this extending to S Britain in week 1, but otherwise patchy rain well distributed across Europe barring S Spain.

GFS Op - HP building in from the SW reaching max extent for Britain 1025mb Thu 9th. It then retreats E-wards to become centred S Baltic, but still mostly the dominant influence for E Britain while troughs approach Ireland from the west (typically 995mb, predicted for Malin Mon 13th, Fastnet Wed 15th, Brittany Fri 17th). By Sat 18th the LP has spread to cover all of Britain as a slack feature; then HP as a brief ridge before LP south of Iceland projects a trough down the W coast Wed 22nd. For all this period HP is oscillating between N Norway and C Europe.

ECM - repeats the development of the HP to Sun 12th, then the LP near Iceland extends a trough SE-wards across central Britain, not the W, and as a persistent feature, distant and shallow at first but becoming centred 1005mb Wales Thu 16th. The HP over Scandinavia is centred further off to the NE than in GFS.

GEFS - Quite good agreement on temps throughout; increasingly warm to Mon 13th after which dropping back to norm with a few mostly warmer outliers. Dry until Mon 13th, then rain on and off, driest in the NE, chance of a heavy burst esp in the S to start with. 

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I think it was tongue in cheek, but a fair comment in that Met office went hard sell on a cold winter late in the season. And this ‘spring’ has been cool by day, grey and very wet. 
Just spent the weekend camping in 11 degrees and soggy conditions, just dreadful for the first week of May. 
Euro cooling continues. 
 

Yes awful day yesterday in the SE for sure  33 mm rain here .I've camped May BH  in 1981 in the Cotswolds with overnight frost and a week prior to that a foot of snow there !
There have been some shockers this BH over the years 

I see that Edinburgh is currently being modelled to finally get its first temperatures of this year of 20°C or above by this coming weekend, so that will be something to look forward to if that comes off, especially if that comes with some badly needed and very welcome sunshine.
 

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WX temp charts show an improvement on yesterday, the mild/warm weather still in place for France and Spain in week 1, almost touching S England, but then in week 2 spreading across NW Europe to Poland, including England (Scotland also milder). Yesterday's prediction of a cooler period in week 2 now heading south along the line of the Urals. Very dry over Poland and S Baltic week 1 (also S Spain), this area moving to N Sea and N Baltic week 2. Some rain in much of NW Europe week 1, but heavy over France and the Alps week 2 also affecting S Britain at that time.

GFS Op - current HP moves to Norway Mon 13th as LP comes in from NW to SW Ireland 995 mb. This LP stays in position, filling slowly, to Thu 16th sandwiched between HP Norway and HP Azores before the areas of HP link up and the LP moves SE-wards to the Alps Tue 21st but leaving a lingering trough over England. By Fri 24th the continental end of the joint HP has moved S tp Poland and Britain is under a combined ridge.

ECM - differs from GFS after Mon 13th with HP developing not over Norway but to SE of Iceland. The Irish LP is still evident but by Sat 18th that has begun to link to LP 990mb Novaya Zemlya threatening NE-lies, and no block over Norway to prevent this.

GEFS - becoming warm by Mon 13th ca 4C above norm, then a sharp drop, but recovering to norm or a little above for the next 10 days, quite good ens agreement. Rain for most in the few days after 13th, thereafter becoming regular and persistent in the SW but occasional and in only some ens members in the NE

 

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Next week looking rubbish again. Big fat low wanting to make the UK it's home. Just a question of will it be warm rain or cool rain.
 

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