A massive battle of the models here tomorrow and one is going to be badly wrong - but which? GFS, I suspect, but we'll see.

On the top, the 12z GFS for Leysdown. On the bottom, the UKV (via MetO)... just a 5C difference at 2PM!
https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/compare.jpg 

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In 1979 England had snow falling somewhere every day during the first week of May.
There have been many far worse periods of cold and wet but the longer it goes on the more dramatic is the sudden change that inevitably follows.
https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/04/27/snow-in-late-april-more-common-than-you-may-think/ 

Yes, I remembered that very clearly.

Woke up one morning near Lincoln in early May 1979 and looked outside just after sunrise - it was really a winter wonderland, with blue skies and heavy covering of snow on trees, buildings and garden; I think it was at least 3 inches deep! However, the snow had almost gone by late afternoon.

Yes, 1979 had a very unsettled and cold Spring, following a bitter cold, snowy winter. The summer I seem to remember was a mixed bag - a rather poor, often slack, westerly type June with frequent showers, quite a good July though, with plenty of fine, dry weather, but a rubbish August that was mostly unsettled with westerlies, with a notable Fastnet Storm gales.

September, however, was a very nice, dry month with plenty of sunshine.

Cool dull and wet although April rainfall hasn't been top far from average 
Despite the persistent coolness the feature that stands out is the lack of frost this past 2 months . Nature is a couple or more weeks ahead of normal around here. 

WX temps show springlike weather (defined by the 14C day-night isotherm) moving to NW Europe from both south and east; Britain is getting milder but the isotherm doesn't cross the Channel. Continuing rather cold in far N of Russia, very warm E of the Caspian, and parts of the Med also warming up. In week 1 rain from the Atlantic across Britain, France, and patchily on to Turkey. In week 2, wet mostly over mountainous areas, but much drier for S Britain.

GFS Op - Current LP circulating around Britain next week (today, N Sea; Mon, Shetland; Tue, Ireland; Thu, Cornwall; Sun, Scotland) before finally filling and disappearing into the mix near Iceland. Unlike previous forecasts, this LP does not move south and settle over France. From Mon 6th HP develops over N France (1025mb by Wed 8th) with W/SW winds from well south and although this weakens Sun 12th with LP near Scotland, it's back 1030mb Wales Tue 14th.

ECM - The LP circulates as above but at the end of the week it moves SE to Italy not NW to Iceland. HP nevertheless develops over N France Mon 6th 1025mb as above but shows a tendency to move NW to the Atlantic by Wed 8th.

GEFS - temps soon rising to norm, or a few degrees above in Scotland, then mean staying near norm though op and control warmer in the S around Sat 11th. After this weekend's rain has gone, more for the S around Thu 2nd  but relatively little thereafter; rain persistent in the NW; fairly dry in the NE throughout.

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GFS 0600z gives a small bit quite vigorous low moving across the UK from the SW on bank holiday Sunday.  This flies against optimistic hints on the BBC week ahead forecast this lunch time.  Fortunately, it is an outlier at that point!

A massive battle of the models here tomorrow and one is going to be badly wrong - but which? GFS, I suspect, but we'll see.

On the top, the 12z GFS for Leysdown. On the bottom, the UKV (via MetO)... just a 5C difference at 2PM!
https://ukwct.org.uk/weather/compare.jpg 

IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page

Quoting this from yesterday - the actual temperature at 2PM here was 9.1C, so MetO was far closer.

Meanwhile at Beenham, where the GFS had that wacky 3C (or 4C on this morning's run), it was 10.4C at 2PM.

A massive fail on the part of GFS, frankly... why DOES it get temperatures so badly wrong when predicting unusually cold conditions?

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GFS 0600z gives a small bit quite vigorous low moving across the UK from the SW on bank holiday Sunday.  This flies against optimistic hints on the BBC week ahead forecast this lunch time.  Fortunately, it is an outlier at that point!

GFS can sod off and leave us alone and allow us to recover what Spring season got left.   

Edit:  It been stupid GFS lately Retron and we know it so best to ignore this model completely.   3C never happened in late of the month 

GFS still modelling an annoying LP sticking over the UK next weekend.

ECM also now following suit albeit a shallower one.

Both look fairly promising after the weekend though, ECM especially so.

Might even see a 20C at some point before June!

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Still looking encouraging for a bit of warmth next week.

April has been above average but largely due to the incessant cloud and wind keeping night time temps up.

Please bring on the 240 hour charts!

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Still looking encouraging for a bit of warmth next week.

April has been above average but largely due to the incessant cloud and wind keeping night time temps up.

Please bring on the 240 hour charts!

Yes we all deserve some proper Spring weather, and we do seem to be hopefully shuffling our way to something much better. 
🤞

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The Daily Star says 'Oompah. oompah, put away your jumpah! - do you need more?  Well, maybe ...

WX temps - the pool of warm air over Germany in week1 combines with increasing warmth over Iberia to produce warm and springlike weather  for all of W Europe in week 2, today shown as reaching across the Channel into S England, Scotland too noticeably milder. Some compensating cold weather moving S-wards over the Urals. A band of wet weather in week 1 stretching from S Britain to France and on E-ward across the Alps. In week 2 this retreats to the Atlantic in the west and breaks up into isolated patches in the east.

GFS Op - current LP continues to circulate over Britain this week, filling all the while, moving first to Ireland then the Channel then by Fri 3rd Holland while the source of air increasingly comes from a warm E/SE direction. Pressure then rises over Britain, uncertainly at first but by Wed 8th well established to cover the country at 1025mb. It drifts N to Scotland by Sun 12th with pressure slowly falling over France, the latter bringing up even more warmth from the south. The HP then fades as a new LP moves down from Iceland to SW Ireland 990mb Wed 15th.

ECM is less keen to dismiss the LP at the end of the week; it revives after visiting Holland and is a definite feature 1000mb E England Sun/Mon 5th/6th before pressure rises more strongly than on GFS 1035mb N Sea Thu 9th.

GEFS - briefly mild but with rain around Thu 2nd, then back to norm (the dip is more marked in the S) before a long period of mild/warm with only small amounts of rain from time to time through to Wed 15th, albeit an increasing number of colder runs (ca 8/33 in SE, more in NW) towards the end. 

 

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Still looking encouraging for a bit of warmth next week.

April has been above average but largely due to the incessant cloud and wind keeping night time temps up.

Please bring on the 240 hour charts!

April look well below average, did not see demands for fans and AC units fitted in this month, most of us using the heating and winter clothes.  At least the latest show we are heading to right direction for some real warmth that give us true above average temps  May for London is 18 to 19C so need to be 20c or more to pass as above average.   

April has been above average but largely due to the incessant cloud and wind keeping night time temps up.

Yep, the temperature plot from Chimet on the south coast says a lot .

11°C day and night for the last 12 hours 🙄.....
https://chimet.co.uk/(S(mr2o5ujjluhpyx55lo1iyov5))/temp.aspx 

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Not been a bad day here in Hants with plenty of sun albeit still a nagging wind. Tomorrow looks rather nice.

Next week is still very much up in the air though. 6Z GFS brings in a northerly influence once again. Hope the 12Zs don't follow suit.

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V mixed output this morning:
UKMO = warm high pressure 
GEM = warm high pressure 
GFS = more mixed but OK.
ECM = horror show 

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WX temps not as positive as shown yesterday - Europe getting a little milder over the next two weeks, but anything significantly warmer staying around the Mediterranean. In week 1, rain in a band from the Atlantic (just touching S Britain) across France, and on eastwards to Turkey, the really dry area being Scandinavia. In week 2, this area shrinks and becomes centred on the Balkans, some rain in Norway, Britain rather dry.

GFS - the current LP near W Britain moving S, filling, and becoming a weak feature 1010mb covering France Mon 6th. HP moves across from Norway to cover Britain 1025mb Fri 10th, pushing the LP further south, but withdraws to the SW after that weekend as LP swings in from the Atlantic 995mb N Ireland Mon 13th resulting in a broad area of LP around the N Sea later on.

ECM - although the current LP fills, it does not move to France; by comparison with GFS, pressure remains quite high there and Britain is more affected by troughs ahead of an LP near Greenland. These troughs split form the parent LP and by Fri 10th form a separate LP over Norway with a broad ridge of HP from Iceland to France including most of S & W Britain.

GEFS - mild near Thu 2nd and later around Thu 6th with some rain at these times esp in SE, less rain in Scotland which also hangs on to milder weather between these dates. Little agreement on temps from ens members after 6th but nearly all are dry. 

GEM has elements of both GFS & ECM; like ECM there is a pressure rise over France and LP on the Atlantic but like GFS the LP stays well ti the west and there is a strong pressure rise over Britain.
 

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One step forward, two steps back. GEM seems to be the only one still bringing in anything decent, even UKM has flipped to more crud.

Hopefully this unsettled spring will give way to summer when summer is supposed to be!

(Today has been rather nice though - only the second alfresco lunchbreak of the season!)

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Quite an unusual setup tonight with an unseasonably high ThetaE plume advecting north and west into southern UK. The rather low saturation and high CAPE suggest thunderstorms may become surface based into the early hours.
Could see a classic plume type event which would make a change after the cool, wet almost continuous autumn we’ve endured since last October. 

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WX summary temps showing Spring variability. Week 1, mild weather appearing patchily from the east, reaching Holland, replaced in week 2 with a thrust from the south reaching the N coast of France while cool/cold weather from the north affects countries from Poland to the Balkans. Britain on the sidelines and not seeing much change. Week 1 , a band of rain Britain - France - Alps - Turkey re-forms into an arc in week 2 N Spain - Italy - Ukraine - W Russia, with Britain and N Sea areas very dry.

GFS Op - current LP moving first S and then SW to be clear of Britain by Fri 3rd, but not really going away, coming back to nibble at western regions with support from a deeper LP near Greenland until Tue 6th. Pressure then rises to cover the country 1030mb Thu 9th, but with LP over France never far from S England. This lasts to Tue 13th when a broad trough composed of the remnants of Greenland and France LPs forms affecting mainly W/SW districts.

ECM - that LP does move away on Fri 3rd but revives more definitely 1000mb Brittany Sun 5th before filling and drifting NE across Britain. There is then a strong rise in pressure as in GFS 1030 mb again on Thu 9th but instead of beicoming a broad centre over Britain, shifts to become a N-S ridge with highest pressure over Shetland Sat 11th - and more onshore winds for the E coast :(

GEFS - in the S a brief dip to cooler on Fri 3rd but otherwise and elsewhere on the mild side (not dramatically warm) through to 17th, fair agreement from ens members though control fancies a colder outcome later. Some rain until Wed 7th in S esp SW, just a brief splash in the NE,  but then dry in nearly all runs throughout away from the NW and even there not much rain.

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One step forward, two steps back. GEM seems to be the only one still bringing in anything decent, even UKM has flipped to more crud.

GFS 0Z not looking too bad. I've got a long weekend in the West Country at the end of next week so hoping for something settled!

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