WX shows the current 'layered' temp profile (freezing N Scandinavia, mild/warm in Med, a mildness gradient in between) changing in week 2 to one in which rather cooler weather spreads south over W Europe balanced by heat over W Spain and the Urals. Rain for the far NW in week 1 (Ireland to Norway) decreasing in week 2 though not entirely absent; in week 2 the heavy rain is for the Alps and C/SE Europe.

GFS Op - Storm Kathleen drifts N-wards to Iceland, filling, but generating a local 'runner' whistling across S England 990mb Tue 9th. Then a period of mild SW-lies controlled by HP 1030mb over Biscay to Sat 13th, terminated by LP moving past Shetland to Scandinavia with winds going round to the N by Mon 15th. HP then forms a ridge from Greenland S-wards through the Atlantic quite close to Britain though possibly cool but a new development, not shown yesterday, is LP originating Faeroes Thu 18th running south and deepening to 995mb Wales Mon 22nd (formerly the Atlantic HP hung on)

ECM - very much like GFS, perhaps LP in Atlantic closer after Tue 9th so winds are stronger and more W-ly than SW-ly.

GEFS - temp dropping in stages to cool by Wed 10th the recovering to mild (very mild in S) until Mon 15th at which point a sudden drop to norm, all with good ens agreement. Mean then stays near norm as individual runs spread out with op on the cool side.  Occasional pulses of rain to Wed 10th then mostly dry in most runs, some peaks in a few ens members ca Thu 18th. 

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I absolutely 100% want a repeat of 2022. Fortunately it’s only early April, because the models are absolute garbage right out to the end of their runs currently. 

And this remains the case. Utter cack bar the odd ridge

Still so early in spring though, and the lack of posts from the snow and cold hopecasters is a refreshing reminder that winter (even though it’s not cold or snowy anymore, anyway) is as far away as ever. 

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WX temp charts haven't really picked up on the current high values noted in W Europe implying only a brief warm spell (the charts show a weekly average), Week 1 charts show warmth persisting only in E Europe, across Ukraine and of course the Mediterranean shores. NW Europe as a whole is mild and a little above norm. Week 2 charts look much like yesterday, freezing weather breaking up into small patches in Scandinavia, warmth moving N-wards over Spain and Ukraine, while a push from the general direction of Iceland brings cool weather to Britain and NW Europe and restores freezing weather to the Alps. A large area of very dry weather over S Europe in week 1, with some rain persisting in NW Britain and Norway; in week 2 the latter fades and heavy rainfall appears around the Adriatic.

GFS Op - storm Kathleen moves NE and loses its identity in the Norwegian Sea while a small but potent secondary LP 995mb moves rapidly up the Channel Tue 9th bringing in NW-lies briefly. HP then develops 1030mb over France and extends E-wards but with LP never far from NW Scotland Britain lies under SW-lies through to Sat 13th. Pressure then drops over the Baltic bringing NW-lies to Britain (yesterday it showed more of a direct N-ly) but by Wed 17th Britain is back under HP from the Atlantic. LP then tries again Fri 19th, arriving Cape Wrath from the N 990mb but after a brief visit to the N Sea is pushed back N-wards by HP 1030mb Germany Tue 23rd with S-lies for Britain.

ECM - Similar to GFS but after Sat 13th the Baltic LP is deeper and closer but not displacing the Atlantic HP, so expect N-ly gales for the E Coast with a greater pressure gradient.

GEFS - temps dip to cool Wed 10th soon resuming very mild (6C above norm) until Sun 15th/Mon 16th when a sudden drop to cool in all ens members (good chance of snow in the N at this time), mean soon returning to norm and staying there to Tue 23rd in the middle of a moderate spread of outcomes. (Not as cool in week 2 as suggested by WX above). Scotland and the W get heavy rain on Tue but otherwise only small amounts of rain and that not in all ens members for the next fortnight. 

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Some very tenuous signs of mild improvement. Looks drier for the south as pressure builds across the continent. Unfortunately it then ridges up toward Greenland and plunges us into a northerly. All at range though and nothing like cross-model agreement. 

Someone will say if only it was January 

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Some very tenuous signs of mild improvement. Looks drier for the south as pressure builds across the continent. Unfortunately it then ridges up toward Greenland and plunges us into a northerly. All at range though and nothing like cross-model agreement. 

Someone will say if only it was January 

Until now UK still ignoring the Spring season and continuing the Autumnal weather from last year to now.  Even yesterday was not Springlike more like mild Autumnal unsettled weatrher.  Spring is the season with many variety but had delivered absolately none so far.

Until now UK still ignoring the Spring season and continuing the Autumnal weather from last year to now.  Even yesterday was not Springlike more like mild Autumnal unsettled weatrher.  Spring is the season with many variety but had delivered absolately none so far.

Disagree, George. We’ve had rain, wind, rain, rain, wind, rain, wind, wind

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Some very tenuous signs of mild improvement. Looks drier for the south as pressure builds across the continent. Unfortunately it then ridges up toward Greenland and plunges us into a northerly. All at range though and nothing like cross-model agreement. 

Someone will say if only it was January 

I like my cold weather but at this stage  I'll take anything that brings dryer conditions. No certainty that there's anything dryer on the way but we can but hope.

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No real change in WX temps today. From yesterday:  Week 1 charts show warmth persisting only in E Europe, across Ukraine and of course the Mediterranean shores. NW Europe as a whole is mild and a little above norm. Week 2 charts look much like yesterday, freezing weather breaking up into small patches in Scandinavia, warmth moving N-wards over Spain and Ukraine, while a push from the general direction of Iceland brings cool weather to Britain and NW Europe and restores freezing weather to the Alps. For rainfall, as yesterday, week 1,  some rain persists in NW Britain and Norway; in week 2  heavy rainfall appears around the Adriatic but a great improvement for Britain with some very dry weather working in from the SW.

GFS Op - small LP running across England tomorow (Tue) 1000mb then pressure rising 1030mb France with SW-lies for Britain slowly going round to W-lies by Sat 13th. Low pressure running SE from Iceland to Baltic then turns winds to the NW briefly (not as much N-ly as shown yesterday) but HP re-establishes, this time over Britain, in place by Tue 16th and intensifying 1035mb Scotland Fri 19th before moving on to Norway Wed 24th and allowing NE-lies to affect E England with shallow LP near Denmark.

ECM - as GFS until Sat 13th. Then the LP running SE is closer, takes a swipe at NE Scotland as it goes by, more definite N-lies to follow, and pressure then rises only half-heartedly with a centre1025mb Brittany Thu 18th and W-lies for Britain.

GEFS - temp profile much as yesterday, dip to cool Wed 10th, a swift rise to mild (very mild in the S) lasting to Sun 14th when sudden decline to cool, all with good ens agreement. The mean recovers to norm but in the midst of a spread of outcomes, op mild and control cool. After the next day or so (when heavy rain in Scotland, showers in S), very little rain, perhaps a bit more in a fortnight's time in the south, but W Scotland and N Ireland only slowly become drier..

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Dryer theme definitely gaining traction for the South. 🤞

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=201&run=0&lid=ENS&bw=1 
 

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An 'interesting' spell of weather coming up for the far Southwest and the Isles of Scilly for tonight and into tomorrow. 

Raw windspeeds on the Met Office App are currently peaking at a steady 54mph (just a touch off storm force) for the islands with considerably higher gusts.

That would be a decent storm in winter let alone now in mid Spring. I wouldn't want to be camping on the islands tonight that's for sure!

Luckily the Elm trees are not usually in leaf yet so damage should be fairly limited.

Definitely one to watch!

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An 'interesting' spell of weather coming up for the far Southwest and the Isles of Scilly for tonight and into tomorrow. 

Raw windspeeds on the Met Office App are currently peaking at a steady 54mph (just a touch off storm force) for the islands with considerably higher gusts.

That would be a decent storm in winter let alone now in mid Spring. I wouldn't want to be camping on the islands tonight that's for sure!

Luckily the Elm trees are not usually in leaf yet so damage should be fairly limited.

Definitely one to watch!

Yea, and that storm has also been officially named as Storm Pierrick by the French Met Service and since France is part of the same storm naming system as Spain and Portugal, this is the next one on that list after Storm Olivia which gave us all of that heavy rain just recently ahead of Storm Kathleen.

We will be under a Met Office Official yellow warning for rain during tomorrow as a result and given that we've had so much rain here just lately, any further rainfall here is something which we could well do without for now.
 

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Blimey

High pressure still in the charts.. this might actually happen.

Im more excited about this than a BFTE!

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Yea, and that storm has also been officially named as Storm Pierrick by the French Met Service and since France is part of the same storm naming system as Spain and Portugal, this is the next one on that list after Storm Olivia which gave us all of that heavy rain just recently ahead of Storm Kathleen.

We will be under a Met Office Official yellow warning for rain during tomorrow as a result and given that we've had so much rain here just lately, any further rainfall here is something which we could well do without for now.
 

Storm Pierrick is fast becoming a headache for the far Southwest as the strongest winds are forecast for high tide which is unfortunately a big Spring tide so coastal flooding likely to be an issue. 

If anything the wind speed forecast has increased since this morning with some models forecasting gusts north of 85mph. 
The average windspeed on Scilly according to the Met automated is now 56mph - storm 10. 

I'm surprised that there's not an Amber out yet for this given the main event is just hours away.

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Blimey

High pressure still in the charts.. this might actually happen.

Im more excited about this than a BFTE!

It doesn't look overly warm - pleasant in the sunshine and chilly of a night?

 

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Storm Pierrick is fast becoming a headache for the far Southwest as the strongest winds are forecast for high tide which is unfortunately a big Spring tide so coastal flooding likely to be an issue. 

Not just the far SouthWest

Load up https://www.floodalerts.com/  and see all the flood warnings lining the coasts.

For instance, Old Portsmouth (i.e. by the harbour entrance) has the following "the weather will increase tide table values by 0.76m. The total tide will be 5.75m. This will be the highest tide ever recorded"

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Not just the far SouthWest

Load up https://www.floodalerts.com/  and see all the flood warnings lining the coasts.

For instance, Old Portsmouth (i.e. by the harbour entrance) has the following "the weather will increase tide table values by 0.76m. The total tide will be 5.75m. This will be the highest tide ever recorded"

The River Esk in East Lothian has already burst its banks in and around Musselburgh (which is just to the east of Edinburgh) so I would hate to imagine what any further rainfall during tomorrow will do, especially if we get anything like the sort of rainfall totals which the models are showing for that period.

In addition to that, I have just seen a picture of a really high tide which occurred today on the side of Newhaven Harbour (which is in the north of Edinburgh, just to the west of Leith) which is closest to the main road. That tide was so high that it actually flooded over the lower walkway on that side of the harbour with the water level almost reaching the seated areas of the benches which are located there.

Of course, those really high tides which cover that area aren't unusual and they actually occur twice a year when the New Moon or Full Moon which causes those spring tides is also relatively close to the Earth.

On this occasion, that was being caused by the same New Moon which is also responsible for today's solar eclipse over in North America (I can currently watching a Facebook livestream of that eclipse as I write) but in six month's time, the same thing will happen again except that this will be the result of a Full Moon being relatively close to the Earth.

In addition to that though, weather conditions can also have a big impact on the tides in terms of their effects and even for the highest spring tides of the year, this particular tide was almost like nothing else I had seen before.
 

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Not just the far SouthWest

Load up https://www.floodalerts.com/  and see all the flood warnings lining the coasts.

For instance, Old Portsmouth (i.e. by the harbour entrance) has the following "the weather will increase tide table values by 0.76m. The total tide will be 5.75m. This will be the highest tide ever recorded"

Wow - that would be quite something. I imagine there has been a tide guage at Portsmouth for many years and so to record the highest tide ever would be an exceptional event. 

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Wow - that would be quite something. I imagine there has been a tide guage at Portsmouth for many years and so to record the highest tide ever would be an exceptional event. 

The flood defences are in place on The Point this evening and sandbags are being distributed to properties on the Camber and down High Street. I’ll probably pop down later and take a look.

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The flood defences are in place on The Point this evening and sandbags are being distributed to properties on the Camber and down High Street. I’ll probably pop down later and take a look.

See 'current conditions' thread.

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WX overall temp charts consistent with yesterday - a modest advance of warmth from the south on a broad front in week 1 already showing signs of breaking up into warmer air advancing north over Spain and Ukraine in week 2 while something cooler moves south over NW Europe - though today's chart indicates that this mostly avoids Britain to the east.  Rain in week 1 heaviest for Scotland, Norway, Alps and Syria, dry in Spain and Black Sea; in week 2 dry for Britain (exc far N), across to France and Sicily, plus the Caspian, wet for Spain and central Europe. 

GFS Op - current small LP off to Norway by tomorrow, then a week under the influence of HP centred over France with winds from the SW later W. Then LP moves in to affect mostly the N Sun 14th (990mb Shetland), never really getting away from NW Europe with winds for Britain first N-ly then NW-ly to Sun 21st after which Atlantic HP settles over W Britain.

ECM - similar to GFS, the later HP however moving in a day or two earlier, say Fri 19th.

GEFS - cool now, recovering quickly to mild (even warm in S) dropping sharply to cool Mon 15th (14th in Scotland) all with very good ens agreement. The mean recovers to norm and stays to Wed 24th as ens members increasingly disagree, by Sun 21st op and control at opposite extremes in the SE , the former rather cool and the latter rather warm, but both cool elsewhere. Once tomorrow's rain moves off, dry for several days, not much rain anyway later.

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