WX temps continuing yesterday's trend of a major shrinkage in the coldest weather in the far N of Europe, and the warmth from the south advancing on a broader front than yesterday by week 2 - reaching everywhere N of a line from S France through C Europe. Britain, however, will have to wait its turn, remaining close to average. Rain for Britain, France and Scandinavia in week 1, moving E from France into Germany in week 2 and leaving England (though not W Scotland) somewhat drier, not quite as dry as in evening charts yesterday.

GFS Op - current generally low pressure across Britain and on both E & W retreats and is concentrated 955mb W of Biscay Sat 6th with S-ly winds affecting mainly England. By Mon 8th this has moved north to Rockall 965mb and winds generally are more SW-ly before a secondary LP crosses Britain on Tue ushering in a week of mild SW-lies with LP well to the NW. From Sat 13th low pressure starts to run W to E close to N Scotland with cooler winds from the Atlantic.

ECM - similar to GFS but pressure higher to the south so the Tue feature is only a weak trough and later that week, Fri 12th, pressure is 1030mb English Channel with milder weather reaching well N to Scotland.

GEFS - peaks of mild/very mild weather Sat 6th & Tue 9th (much less marked in N) and then more generally (with less ens agreement) from Fri 12th with the mean dropping back to norm over the following week as outcomes diverge on either side. In the S small amounts of rain in most runs at many times, but heavier in the N & W at first, and persistent in the far NW. Best chance of dry weather in the S Sun 7th. but a week later in the N. 

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I’ve been checking the individual permutations to see if there’s anything for Q to write long posts about snow in the style of Nathan Rao. I think we are ok in that respect, but to me the outlook for the next few weeks broadly remains status quo - unsettled

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WX temps - the serious cold in the far N of Europe continues to retreat. In week 1 there is some positive warmth in C Europe but this subsides in week 2 and nearly all of Europe incl Britain is forecast to be slightly above norm for the time of year. There is however some real heat in S Spain. Rain in week 1 for countries around the N Sea and this extending to W Britain. In week 2, the heaviest rain is in France, in parts of the E Mediterranean especially Turkey. with just a small amount for Britain.

GFS Op - LP withdrawing W-wards from Britain but deepening 955mb off Biscay with strong S-lies for Britain for the weekend. This travels N-wards, filling, to be close to NW Scotland Tue 9th, a small secondary zipping across N France, but otherwise winds going round to the NW. Pressure rises from the SW and is centred SE England 1025mb Sat 13th with winds back into the SW. Although this HP is shunted into the continent by Wed 17th as LP reaches down from Iceland (rather half-heartedly) there is a reload of HP in SE Britain and mild SW-lies return by Sat 20th.

ECM - very much as GFS  though the small secondary is deeper at 990mb and closer, running up the Channel.

GEFS - mild Sat 6th (v mild in S), Tue 9th (almost absent in N) and from Thu 11th with good ens agreement before the the mean slowly returns to norm in the midst of an increasingly wide range of outcomes (op & control again v mild on Mon 15th). Some rain now, also around the 9th and Wed 17th and looking mostly dry at most other times though still present in the W after the 9th and the NW after the 17th. 

 

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Half decent output this morning with HP trying to build in from the south. 🤞🤞🤞

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First time in a long time id say the charts are looking a lot more spring like.  Pressure stabilizing to the south, less precipitation and overall calmer conditions.

This is supported across models

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Half decent output this morning with HP trying to build in from the south. 🤞🤞🤞

Could be the start of another historic period of well above average temps that will last summer.
 

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Could be the start of another historic period of well above average temps that will last summer.
 

Yes, scary stuff if you understand what’s happening.

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Could be the start of another historic period of well above average temps that will last summer.
 

Yes if true accurate day maxes are much higher to represent actual above average than relying on fake mild nights that no use or accuracy due we sleeping that time.  

Yes, scary stuff if you understand what’s happening.

Yes - totally agree. Whilst I welcome the two spells of high pressure shown and the longed for drier settled periods, to actually make breakfast outside the joy it should be, the potential for the summer in terms of temperature, drought and fire risk is a massive concern. The summer of 2022 saw the native flora of our woodlands collapse. Not even the common nettle could cope, and this had a devastating effect on our invertebrates and the wider food web. I really dont want to see a repeat of that, but fear we will. Last year’s wet, cooler summer was a relief. I also have a large garden and light soil. Being on a water meter, it could get very expensive to keep plants alive through extreme heat. Ive lost a lot of plants to extremes recently, to drought or frost.

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WX temps - freezing weather in far N of Europe going, going, [nearly] gone by week 2. Generally mild and above norm temps for Europe in week 1, but in week 2 some real warmth developing over Spain and the Black Sea, but with some colder weather returning to W Europe and pishing down towards Italy, Britain on the fringe of this. Wet for Britain and NW Europe week 1, but for C/SE Europe week 2 and Britain becoming drier on the edge of some very dry weather moving N from Spain.

GFS Op - LP (Kathleen) moving N and deepening 950mb Rockall Saturday, filling but with quite a deep trough moving across Britain on Tue 9th. HP moving up from the SW for a few days at the end of that week, then after a brief interval with LP moving into the Norwegian Sea and winds in the N on Mon 15th, HP re-asserts itself and dominates Britain from Wed 17th - dry but maybe not warm as wind is still NW-ly.

ECM - like GFS but pressure recovers less after trough on Tue and Monday's N-lies coming more directly from a long way N.

GEFS - temps up - down - up - down to cool Wed 10th, then a solidly mild period lasting to Sun 14th all with good ens agreement, then returns to norm as agreement breaks up. Some rain around Tue 9th, rather dry at other times except for Scotland at first and NW Scotland more generally, even there dying away slowly.

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Yes - totally agree. Whilst I welcome the two spells of high pressure shown and the longed for drier settled periods, to actually make breakfast outside the joy it should be, the potential for the summer in terms of temperature, drought and fire risk is a massive concern. The summer of 2022 saw the native flora of our woodlands collapse. Not even the common nettle could cope, and this had a devastating effect on our invertebrates and the wider food web. I really dont want to see a repeat of that, but fear we will. Last year’s wet, cooler summer was a relief. I also have a large garden and light soil. Being on a water meter, it could get very expensive to keep plants alive through extreme heat. Ive lost a lot of plants to extremes recently, to drought or frost.

The big difference between 2022 and now was that two years ago, much of the UK went into that summer on the back of a drier than average winter, especially in southern areas. I have seen it said here before that the very dry state of the ground leading into the summer of 2022 was one of the reasons why temperatures went as high as they did that July.

Contrast the situation two years ago to where we are now where the ground in much of the UK is completely saturated after months of above average rainfall, even in the areas that are normally drier. I think we would now need an exceptionally dry & warm period for the rest of the spring and going into the start of summer for the ground to get anywhere near the level of dryness there was two years ago.

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WX temps - freezing weather in far N of Europe going, going, [nearly] gone by week 2. Generally mild and above norm temps for Europe in week 1, but in week 2 some real warmth developing over Spain and the Black Sea, but with some colder weather returning to W Europe and pishing down towards Italy, Britain on the fringe of this. Wet for Britain and NW Europe week 1, but for C/SE Europe week 2 and Britain becoming drier on the edge of some very dry weather moving N from Spain.

GFS Op - LP (Kathleen) moving N and deepening 950mb Rockall Saturday, filling but with quite a deep trough moving across Britain on Tue 9th. HP moving up from the SW for a few days at the end of that week, then after a brief interval with LP moving into the Norwegian Sea and winds in the N on Mon 15th, HP re-asserts itself and dominates Britain from Wed 17th - dry but maybe not warm as wind is still NW-ly.

ECM - like GFS but pressure recovers less after trough on Tue and Monday's N-lies coming more directly from a long way N.

GEFS - temps up - down - up - down to cool Wed 10th, then a solidly mild period lasting to Sun 14th all with good ens agreement, then returns to norm as agreement breaks up. Some rain around Tue 9th, rather dry at other times except for Scotland at first and NW Scotland more generally, even there dying away slowly.

Quite right David.

This talk of another summer 2022 is very premature given how wet its been.

My hunch, a warm summer but a very convective one!!🌩

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My hunch, a warm summer but a very convective one!!🌩

If it's warm, there'll certainly be no shortage of water vapour rising from the sodden ground!

 

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The big difference between 2022 and now was that two years ago, much of the UK went into that summer on the back of a drier than average winter, especially in southern areas. I have seen it said here before that the very dry state of the ground leading into the summer of 2022 was one of the reasons why temperatures went as high as they did that July.

Contrast the situation two years ago to where we are now where the ground in much of the UK is completely saturated after months of above average rainfall, even in the areas that are normally drier. I think we would now need an exceptionally dry & warm period for the rest of the spring and going into the start of summer for the ground to get anywhere near the level of dryness there was two years ago.

Yet despite the sodden ground the south east is predicted to see 21c tomorrow, and that’s with a very strong wind blowing.  Yes, soil moisture is a factor, but I’m not sure that it’s a significant one?

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Yet despite the sodden ground the south east is predicted to see 21c tomorrow, and that’s with a very strong wind blowing.  Yes, soil moisture is a factor, but I’m not sure that it’s a significant one?

For all it is much warmer down south,  when I was out driving only half-an-hour ago, the temperature in my location according to the screen behind my steering wheel was only 3.5C with a very cold NE wind. That is well below what it should be at midday for the first week of April, even in Scotland. It is forecast to get milder though over the weekend up here.

It reached 19C in one location in NE Scotland back in January, around the time of one of the storms I think it was. There was a very mild sector over the UK or at least some areas at the time, IIRC. I think how far south the wind is originating from has a lot of say in how mild/warm it gets too.

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Yes - totally agree. Whilst I welcome the two spells of high pressure shown and the longed for drier settled periods, to actually make breakfast outside the joy it should be, the potential for the summer in terms of temperature, drought and fire risk is a massive concern. The summer of 2022 saw the native flora of our woodlands collapse. Not even the common nettle could cope, and this had a devastating effect on our invertebrates and the wider food web. I really dont want to see a repeat of that, but fear we will. Last year’s wet, cooler summer was a relief. I also have a large garden and light soil. Being on a water meter, it could get very expensive to keep plants alive through extreme heat. Ive lost a lot of plants to extremes recently, to drought or frost.

I think I'm going to be losing a lot of plants soon to excessive rainfall if there isn't a change to drier weather soon. 😞

I imagine the vast majority of us here don't want a repeat of 2022 (I certainly don't). That said, with so many flood warnings in force across the country right now, I think a dry spell regardless of prevailing temperatures is needed PDQ.

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I think I'm going to be losing a lot of plants soon to excessive rainfall if there isn't a change to drier weather soon. 😞

I imagine the vast majority of us here don't want a repeat of 2022 (I certainly don't). That said, with so many flood warnings in force across the country right now, I think a dry spell regardless of prevailing temperatures is needed PDQ.

I absolutely 100% want a repeat of 2022. Fortunately it’s only early April, because the models are absolute garbage right out to the end of their runs currently. 

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If it's warm, there'll certainly be no shortage of water vapour rising from the sodden ground!

 

That depends on how dry or humid the warm airmass is. 

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I think I'm going to be losing a lot of plants soon to excessive rainfall if there isn't a change to drier weather soon. 😞

I

Yes, as a gardener I never thought I would be complaining of it being too wet in April in the driest region of the Country - but I cut the grass this afternoon as it was getting long but noticed how sparse it was in reality. Usually I would get 3 containers full of cuttings for that length at this time of year but it was only half that due to the lack of density of the sward.

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That depends on how dry or humid the warm airmass is. 

Water gets hot. Water evaporates. 

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