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The FI section of the 12z GFS is insane. T+324 h shows the 20C 850 hPa isotherm reaching as far north as Newcastle and thicknesses in the SE probably around 582 dam. What a pity it's so far out...Has the 582 dam line ever reached the UK before?
Got a good 576 circle in Aug 2003 IIRC meaning maybe 577 or so. 582 dam seems a difficult catch.
Shows what is possible over the next 4 weeks or so. 40c is there for the taking. Not sure about the 582 line - perhaps overnight on south coast around 4th August 1990?
I think 40C is possible. Was it 2 years ago - we got 36 to 37C and well in my home area there was at least 4 hours of cloud and we hit 36C. So 40C if its sunny is possible.
Not sure i'd want to experience 40c. It would be a bit like sticking your head in the oven I should imagine.
I've experienced much higher temps in Death Valley. Also had no probs sleeping there despite not having air con.
Low DPs make all the difference. I've done the mid-40s in Arizona, actually quite nice. The worst was upper-30s in Thailand with 100% humidity. Anyway, OT.
Not alone..Control and OP identical
Hmmmm.
Still quite warm for the south in late June but none the GEFS00z runs bring in exceptional heat.
late June Brian? ....maybe that's the way forward, forecast the weather we had last month....maybe a bit more reliable? 👍👍😀
The reality of a UK low is now unavoidable but hopefully it wont hang around too long.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.html
Ecm has it drifting away east after 2 days.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html
Ecm has Azores high ridging in nicely this morning . Hopefully a new signal being picked up.
Prob best we can hope for.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html
Is this the summer equivalent to the winter rollercoaster. 40c to 17c in one run
There seems to be some consensus among the models now for increased Atlantic mobility towards the end of the month but this far out I am struggling to believe any of the models. ECM re-establishes the high quickly but GFS wants to sink the high and bring in a full blown trough with incursions from the North.
GFSP becomes the GFS op from tomorrow's 12z cycle. The datasets are pretty similar to the existing ones so I wouldn't expect many probs with charts/forecasts on TWO or other web sites and apps.
Ecm has Azores high ridging in nicely this morning . Hopefully a new signal being picked up.Prob best we can hope for.http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.htmlhttp://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1921.html
These don't look too bad at all really.